This is not good, may a double limit down then.

The plus side (or can call the last card) is at least the largest shareholder may want to 'rescue' the company mainly because of its landing right and business still rather intact also they are in the same 'boat' with the minority shareholders to protect their interest in the company.

If not, with this kind of news, the share can easily down to become penny stock already. If limit down, then it might as well affect the index at least few points.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 30 2007, 11:33 PM

Dow Jones has a nce bound of up more than 100points, should boost the regional market as well, expect 10+ points rebound of KLSE, anything less than that, will be very dissapointing.

Transmile will only resume trading on Friday, may be below RM5, 2x limit down, will consider as short term trading target, call me a bit greedy

Once awhile also speculate a bit, but just for short term bounce only, not mean for lon term keeping.

Today although green, market is rather weak, not much buying activities. Generally market is like a dead water.
If not some buying of 1 lot (100 shares) on TNB, TM, Maybank and other index linked heavy weight, CI might as well only up 1-3 points only. If you notice the market, there are plenty of buying of 1 lot to make the CI looks good especially when market is quiet time like currently situation since the CI is computed based on the last done transaction price.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 31 2007, 09:46 AM

if morning open straight away limit down at Rm6.25 then high chance in the afternoon will plunge somemore, not very wise to grab at this price yet. Just my personal view, I might be wrong.

The cover up amount is so huge, some more already 2 years old which more and less will affect the entire market currently. Now people wonder their invested company is reporting the true figure or not, though most are reporting fair and accurate number but you just can prevent people raising their suspicous way of thinking.

Btw, Posholding being sold off because of large shareholding in Transmile.

Maybulk, may be because of 'Kuok' link into it and peole take excuse to lock in profit which has up almost non-stop for the past month.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 31 2007, 11:13 AM

Quite true, no one expected that worse. Only the CEO and company insiders, may be as well as the auditor knew.

Some may not realised that running a fund to invest is different using your money to invest. When the fund accepted the money from public through unit trust or mutual fund, they needs to look for investment target, they simply cannot have the cash to sit at the sideline, it is their obligation to invest. The most they can do is to allocate a portion into cash but cannot more than about 30% cash, otherwise if market went up and your fund not participate into it then high chance you will be fired. Fund manager used benchmark to quantify their performance, so they are not scare the market to go down (not their money anyway) as long as they perform better than the benchmark indices then they are considered good and well perform already.
Also, with other already expensive, fund managers may allocate some portion buying it as a bet that the share will rebounds back after the irregularity is cleared up. It might be a hedge fund as well.

China market currently is as same sa building pyramid, people buy because expect the next day will be someone to buy from him/her with higher price. Just like building a pyramid scheme. That's why people rushing into it since got easy money as same as people always like to participate into those pyramid scheme that earn 1-3% per day. The China market also the same rising everyday 1-2%.
With this kind of building pyramid process, it cannot sustain forever, it will burst in one day, if followers stop pouring money into the market.
Until the bubble burst or the pyramid building process collapse, still people has high hope on the market. If there is a rebound people then still hopeful but when market turn south rather than rebound, this is when people starting to lose hope then bubble start to burst or shrinking fast.

For Transmile issue, don't recommend for long term investment currently, more suit for hit and run.
I knew it is risky, just for some speculation fun with small bet not mean for serious money into it.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 31 2007, 04:24 PM

The problem is until the fully audited account being revealed, no one knows how much should be company being valued at. RM6.50/share, Rm8.00/share, nobody knew, that's why the share price struggling to find a footing, it is up to anyone guess or speculate currently, may be company is 'kosong' one? who knows, even its number of fleets also not accurate, so large aeroplane also cannot count?

I am more conservative, for long term investing, I would like to know what am I buying and the expectation of return, valuation point, PE, NTA, dividend yield, profit margin of the company etc. That's why personally rate it as for speculation purposes, no doubt about its business still rather intact but no one know how its financial situation currently.

As expected, Transmile open with limit down

The stock price tells the story.
That's why people queue like crazy to get rid of the stock.

With this kind of limit down, it is generally not wise to queue at all, for buyer better wait for afternoon drop some more, for seller, so many queue ahead, not possible to do the deal.
On the other hand, if someone come out 'sapu' all the 6.25 limit down then that's mean the stock will bounce up, so for seller better don't queue at all.

Should be 4.38 if not mistaken.

Contra or especially margin one will force to sell.

If really want to buy, better wait for 2.30pm, easily can save a few K.

Overseas market all are very bullish especially S.Korea, keep on breaching new high. Locally, not much action, a little green only. For China market, it is not yet stablised, might swing in both way in big way.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 1 2007, 11:19 AM

Some fund is buying, also some retail speculators. But not so strong, kind of fade away near Rm6.00 level.

Didn't drop as much as expected (expect below 5 to near limit down), not much money can be made for hit and run at RM5.80 level.

For Deleum, oil and gas industry currently is one of the most profitable business out there, so generally people are willing to pay more premium on it.

For Transmile, actually it is a bit surprise to see some strong support/buying at RM5.80-RM6.00. Instituitional/fund is buying quite a large chunk at this level. It seems like it will stabilise at around this level for the near term unless more irregularities finding and more worsen effect on the financial situation for the company. Still the final and full audit has not completed yet.
Personally, for me, the RM4.+ level might be safer bet on this company since it near to its NTA level, can't goes wrong much with it, provided business still stay intact but if affected its business (DHL cabut) then different story, better 'cabut' as well if happened.

Already lose some faith, as see from the volume shrinking compared previously. With most major bourses are keeping setting new high particularly Singapore and S.Korea, KLSE CI seems like stuck at the region of 1330-1370, hovering like going nowhere even got plenty of good news from overseas.

Good company being privatised like PPBoil, Ramatex, MOX, Maxis etc is never a good sign for the stock market. Yes, in short term shareholders might get some premium on it but you lose the long term growth with well managed, profitability company. Also reduce the investment option.

Yup, currently although KLSE is more than 1000 counters but majority up to 80% in number are those small company, Mesdaq, Second board which foreign fund won't buy into it. Just take a tiny of the fund already can buyout those whole company.
Also a lot of them are not suitable for long term investing, reason ranging from business model is not so secure in long term, rip-off minority shareholder, business not growing (instead shrinking especially more happen in Mesdaq and 2nb board), low liquidity so even under-valued, fund just can't buy it, so no instituitional support at all all depends on retailers mood (which is not good for the developement of a healthy developed market.)

If the accounting fraud happens to those tiny company, may be not much harm done. But Transmile is one of the foreigners highly participate counter, even Bloomberg, CNBC also reporting the news, not good for the image of KLSE and creditibility of SC.

There is fundamental problem on KLSE retailers, most retailers only know or want to invest 'goreng' stock, those boring steadily earning, good dividend yield company seldom got people interest in it. That's why retailers always being burned, if retailers is more serious about their money and investing in blue chip and good company then surely will outperform the unit trust return.

Go to broking firm, ask how many people got those 'goreng' stock (Dbhd, Iris etc no offence) then ask how many people got like IOIcorp, Maxis, Guiness then you will understand the retailers problem. Also even lesson learned, a lot of them still repeating the mistake. Market quiet and down time, no one interested to buy, only want to buy when market is red hot, instead of buy low sell high become buy high sell low (or stuck with tons of 'goreng' share which yield nothing at all since no dividend at all in most 'goreng' shares)


This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 2 2007, 10:18 AM

It is not a direct call warrant as others, it is a 'basket call warrant' means that one call warrant represent 20 stocks owned (some sort like closed ended unit trust) which is different from ordinar call warrant out there.

If not undestand check this out, quite detailed explaination.
https://www.osk188.com/basketMain.jsp?actionPage=Product

Yup, that kind of CW is good for diversication but the main problem CW is a short term investment target not actually good for long term investment since it expiry is a bit short (2 years still not consider long enough). The most disadvantage part of the CW, what if when market and share is under bearish mood at the moment of expiry date, the cash settlement is unavoidable even you knew it is good for long term but you still needs take or realise the loss (cannot hold due to expiration).

I think they issue this kind of warrant is to take a loop hole for investor to invest abroad since ordinary investor/retailer here has no direct access to overseas market or share apart from through global/regional unit trust and some unfamilar overseas online broking firm which retailers like us may find difficult to check whether the side is perfectly legal and legistimately.
Actually it is quite good to have this kind of call-warrant, but if the expiry data is longer like 5 years or so, then much better.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 4 2007, 08:58 AM

High probably is a technical rebound, that's why previously I wish to buy as for short term speculation, too bad, not drop below Rm5.00, didn't grab any.

Whether worst is over or not, it is pre-mature until the audited account is fully revealed and new director board and CEO being appointed.

Seems like regional market is immune from the China plunge. But the more concern in near term is that US market is long over-due for a correction which has been rising almost non-stop.

Locally, not much catalyst to have another significant surge (little surge no problem as momemtum and bullish sentiment can push few more) as most analysts agree that KLSE is one the most expensive market in the region until company can deliver impressive earning result in next 2Q.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 4 2007, 11:02 AM

For PressMetal, the latest is that most of its directors are disposing their part holding at price Rm1.30 above while for director purchasing one is at RM0.50-Rm0.60 which is at early Mei of mid-Mei.

A share that has run up from RM0.50-0.60 to more than RM1.50 in just 2-3 weeks time, a pull back (profit taking) and correction is not surprise lar.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 4 2007, 02:59 PM

US market is long overdue a meaning correction although trend is still on the way up for US market, near term should have some pull back.

Locally, volume still thin and not very convincing to surge further.

PS: Selling are quite aggressive in TNB currently

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 4 2007, 03:57 PM

This is already 'biasa' for KLSE, always got last minute push with 'jump' price closing.

As for whether market got strength or not, the best indicator would be the volume which won't lie one.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 4 2007, 05:11 PM