111 days to go until Southeast Asia and Hong Kong have a giant hole where 18 FOX/Star linear channels used to be.

The mass exodus that happens at midnight on 30 September follows other linear streamlining across the region.

This includes the exit of WarnerMedia’s Asian entertainment service, RED by HBO, from seven markets on 30 June; and changes in South Asia, where WarnerMedia pulled the plug on its last two linear entertainment channels – HBO and WB. HBO – in December last year, bringing to a close two decades of valiant, costly, ultimately lackluster, and clearly unprofitable efforts at adding value to the region's video environment. Plus others…

Other than what happens after Discovery and WarnerMedia officially become Warner Bros. Discovery, one of the bigger questions of the moment is: what will replace the 18 channels that Disney is killing in Southeast Asia in pursuit of an entirely on-demand entertainment future.

Or, indeed, will the channels be replaced at all? And with what, and at what price point? And then what…

Opposing camps are united only in unadulterated commitment to their positions.

The debate is heated, sometimes covering the serious skills and execution challenges in building an all-VOD ecosystem, and other times glossing over details in the name of chasing the big dream.

In a nutshell, one camp says the linear channels business is quite simply on the wrong side of history and that VOD, in whatever form, is the only way forward.

This is the shiny new sexy headline-friendly story that many feel runs roughshod over the reality on the ground in Asia, where affordability remains an issue and where millions haven’t yet accessed the first rung of any subscription ladder…. And may never in this lifetime unless it’s bundled free with data plans.

The other camp says there’s enough life, love, and revenue in linear channels in many parts of Asia to sustain a viable business for years to come.

If subscription platforms – particularly in emerging markets – play their cards right, supporters of a broad value-laden hybrid linear+VOD environment say a profitable future need not slip through anyone’s fingers.

There are numbers to back up both positions (and more), the deciding factor being who wants what outcome, when and at what cost, and the story they need for their investor decks.

Intelsat’s Media Market Watch 2021, using S&P Global data, counts 655 million pay-TV subscribers – or 63% penetration – in the Asia-Pacific region, and hangs a US$44-billion revenue tag on broadcast TV ad revenue by 2024 compared to US$2 billion in the non-broadcast TV sector. Traditional cable and direct-to-home satellite combined currently have 71.3% of households and 78% of the revenue in the region. Layered on top of that is mention of OTT oversaturation and exhaustion as consumers are bombarded with options.

Data from Asia-based analysts Media Partners Asia (MPA) presented in April this year shows online video subscription revenue rising in nine Asia markets.

By 2025, MPA forecasts online video subscriptions will have overtaken pay-TV revenues only in Australia and Thailand. Pay-TV revenues will still be higher in China, India (where pay-TV revenue will still command more than 80% of the pie in 2025), Indonesia, Japan, Korea, and Malaysia. The Philippines will be almost evenly split between the two.

Back to our October reality… For all its programming power, if anyone thinks Disney+ will simply slide into the programming vacuum created by the exit of the FOX linear channels, they would be plain wrong.

We counted about 40 general entertainment titles that could become available when FOX, FOXlife, FOX Crime, and FX disappear.

These include “CSI”, “CSI Miami”, “NCIS”, “FBI: Most Wanted”, “Bosch”, “Britain’s Got Talent”, “The Good Doctor”, “MasterChef U.S.”, “A Million Little Things”, “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”, and “American Gods”.

None of these are currently offered on the full Disney+, which is only available in Singapore right now. Other markets in Asia have the hybrid lower-cost Disney+ Hotstar, with slates of Indian and local content mixed in with titles from Disney.

Distributors and platforms have been talking to us about the dawn of new opportunities, the rise of alternative entertainment offerings in Asia, and an era where Disney/FOX and WarnerMedia/HBO do not take 80% of Asia’s pay-TV affiliate revenue, leaving all others scrambling to claw a share of what’s left.

How will the newly freed 100% purse behave… and evolve? How big will the subscription pie be? Is it just too late for some markets? What role will platforms play as aggregators of apps? Do they have the customer service skills to provide a Netflix-style experience?

The debate continues…