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 GOLDETF (0828EA), Buy Gold like u buy shares

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Jordy
post Jul 19 2019, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 19 2019, 12:57 PM)
Better than hellogold I suppose.

Any fees?
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It is just your normal trading fees. Annual management fee is around 0.8% as I have read somewhere before.

Since the IPO closing of 1.74 to current price of 1.945 (19 months), the return is only 11.78%, with most of the gains coming from June 2019 onward. Might not be worth to look at if gold price is going to be volatile.
Jordy
post Jul 19 2019, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 19 2019, 02:04 PM)
Annual management fee is 0.3% and custody fee is 0.2% per anum. So total is 0.5%.The gold is kept in Singapore but the units will appear in your Bursa CDS account.

The stock is 99% invested in real physical gold bars. So performance will track price of gold obviously. it was going nowhere from IPO until end of last year. But with trade war, interest rate easing,  fear of crisis, Gold has been moving upwards.

So depend on your future outlook. Strong economic growth and high interest rates are bad for gold. Gold doesn't pay any dividends and interest. Crisis and low interest rates are good for Gold.

But even if you bullish on the economy, I think you should have some gold for "insurance" in case you are wrong.

What I like most is that it's on the same platform as my trading account. When I take profit from a stock I can immediately buy some Gold vice-versa.
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Thank you for your clarification on the annual management fee.

"The stock is 99% invested in real physical gold bars. So performance will track price of gold obviously"
This one I agree. So coming back to the direction of spot gold price. The swing is too wild if we look at the previous 10Yr chart. No doubt that there is a chance to hit one of the up cycles of gold price, but that will be during a time of recession. If we take a look at the current gold price, it is at it's all-time high right now. I believe that the recent surge in gold price is due to China's buying spree since the start of the year.

The questions we need to ask ourselves are, how long can it hold at its current valuation, how long is our big brother China going to sustain their buying spree, and the most fundamental question would be how long will the US keep its interest rate low?

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Jordy
post Jul 20 2019, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 19 2019, 04:58 PM)
Yes, gold is now at historical highs in MYR terms.Thanks for sharing the chart. A 20 year time frame will show you an even more interesting picture.

But for sake of discussion, let me try to answer ur questions:

Q: How long will it keep its current valuation?

Ans: No idea. There is no comparative industry PE or EPS or a as such. Gold is..just gold. If we can tell exactly, than we can make millions by trading gold futures instead.

Q: How long will big Brother China going to continue its buying spree?

Ans: I think as long as the China-US rivalry persists.. which is going to be a long time. China problem is that they have too much of their money held in US Treasuries. Imagine if all ur money is with ur enemy.. Who is now starting to get aggressive with u. Problem right? They are trying to diversify away gradually, but since we are talking trillions of dollars,  they can't pull out quickly without losing money themselves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/china-has-c...two-years.html:

Q: How long will the US keep their interest rate low?

Ans: They have been increasing interest rates for the past 2 years. Early this year, they said enuff increase!  Now everyone is expecting the first cut to come end of this month. The expectation is that this is the first cut of many to follow. To answer your question, I would say about 1-2 years.
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Thank you for sharing your insights, and yes the past 20 years chart did tell a very interesting picture, but I am not going to go that far as we know gold price will never rally up in that way again (it was a huge 400% surge over the period). From where we are, a steady 5% increment in price annually is good enough, but then again we wouldn't know what is going to happen over the next 5 years or so.

US re-election is coming next year, so things might get interesting with the China-US rivalry. If he losses office, well it wouldn't take a long time for the new Government to reverse the damage Trump did with China. So on to your claim that this is going to be a long drawn affair, I'd say we'll let the US voters to decide if they would like to see this rivalry persist.

While I agree that US would have its first rate cut in years, but would this short-term rate cut spur a long-term rally of the gold price? It is highly unlikely as Fed will need to step in once again with a rate hike if inflation rises too rapidly due to cheap credit. So when that happens, gold would become more of a speculative tool rather than a hedging tool.

One downside of this GOLDETF is its very low liquidity. One is "forced" to liquidate it at a cheap price or stick with the stock through its ups and downs. And the fact that is pays no dividends, the only way to earn a decent profit from this ETF is if the price could achieve a compounded growth rate of 5% (which is again, unlikely unless the US is hit with another big recession). As compared to my stocks portfolio, I would be able to sleep better at night as I know that my stocks would still continue giving me dividends for years to come even if the price compressed temporarily.

QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 19 2019, 09:37 PM)
the surge of gold are mainly due to the anticipating of recession I suppose. But the volatility is high.
Investing in gold can be act as a hedge because the correlation to main market is low.
But given the uncertainty of current market movement, even gold is not safe anymore.
Its already very high at the mean time, can it breach further?
Nevertheless, we can give it a try for not exceeding 10% of our portfolio, perhaps?
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Wow, 10% of total portfolio? That is a bit too much, isn't it? sweat.gif
Then I would have many sleepless nights afterwards. Haha.
Jordy
post Jul 20 2019, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 20 2019, 12:00 PM)
I increase end last year and now a bit more than 10% gold. Up from 2-3% a year ago. Gain of 12% so far. 10% is my standard limit when buying any single stock, but there could be exceptions. I'm a self confessed market timer, so right now waiting for the signs.. 😆

Liquidity and traded volume are two different things. Liquidity for 0828EA is there due to market maker. But volume is not, maybe ppl not aware or don't understand.

N if u want big amounts u can call the fund manager to help. They can bring the liquidity. But what's more cool is that if u own 500000 units,  then u can actually exchange your units to get a physical 5kg gold bar 9999.
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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 20 2019, 12:42 PM)
I think 5% to 10% is the recommended amount, although I only have less than 1% gold due to StashAway.
how's much is the transaction cost to exchange it to physical gold? and what type of gold? Swiss? Kijang Emas?
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I still cannot take that kind of risk to have such a high exposure to gold. Maybe small amount like RM10k, probably is still ok, but to put 10% of my portfolio in gold holdings, not a good idea at this current condition. That would mean sacrificing my stable dividends in exchange for something uncertain.
Jordy
post Jul 20 2019, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 20 2019, 01:45 PM)
so that means you don't think a financial crisis or a recession is coming?

Most ppl say it's coming ....because it has been almost 10 years.  sad.gif

on the other hand, gold has already appreciated a lot this year.... not sure if I'd acquire more.
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Well, I would not speculate if a crisis or recession is coming or not as I am not an economist. So my views of the economical health are not important. But what I am saying is that my defensive portfolio is able to withstand a recession/crisis in the US. Well IF a recession/crisis was to happen, I could still buy gold then and ride with it. But right now with no clearer sign of it, I would not risk my cash earning nothing.
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post Jul 21 2019, 06:13 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 20 2019, 11:48 PM)
eh, care to explain your defensive portfolio?
can withstand a recession / crisis even without gold?  hmm.gif

If you buy it then, wouldn't it be too late? I think buying during recession/crisis may be too late. The price would have gone up by then, no? I think we should buy before others join the bandwagon. (should buy if you're expecting a crisis, if not, then no need)
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My portfolio is made up of quality dividend stocks that constantly pay out good dividends. Their businesses are quite resilient to market conditions. During a crisis, their share prices may be affected, but the core business might not be affected a lot. Hence is would be business as usual and these stocks are able to pay me dividends as usual. I earn by holding on to my stocks, not by selling them.

There is still buying opportunity for gold during a crisis, as the price would keep rising. It is not going to stop appreciating as people are still going to keep accumulating gold during a crisis. It is a safer bet to buy gold at the first obvious sign of a crisis. But for now, the sign isn't clear enough to warrant a rush to buy.
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post Jul 22 2019, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 22 2019, 04:10 PM)
Market is generally pretty uncertain now. Having a good chunk of gold has allowed me to be "more brave" going into stocks this year esp in May.

Using football analogy, with my defense looking solid n with good goalkeeper, I can now push more players into the striker and attacking midfielder positions, playing a 4-4-2 formation. Many ppl are playing 10-0-0 now..  laugh.gif
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That is a good analogy there, and the 10-0-0 would be me icon_rolleyes.gif
But I wouldn't mind staying 10-0-0 even if market changes for the better, as long as I am still earning my target yield from my portfolio. I would just like to build more passive income right now, with the first target which is to achieve a passive income of at least 50% of my gross salary. At my current age, it is not a good time for me to go aggressive on my portfolio anymore. Time to play defensive on my current holdings and grow it steadily.
Jordy
post Jul 22 2019, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 22 2019, 04:59 PM)
U are not 10-0-0 in my books.. maybe 4-6-0 (just guessing). 10-0-0 is like plumberly.. 😆

I consider good boring dividend stocks as my midfielders..sometimes they do score well. Cash, gold and bonds are goalkeeper n defenders n maybe defensive midfielder as well.

Growth n technology stocks, pennies and warrants etc are the strikers.
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Oh, in that case well I think as of now I am more of 2-8-0, as 20% is held in cash for any short term opportunity, and 80% in dividend yielding stocks. My cash holdings could be reduced to about 10% once I utilise the other part of it to fund a business start up (wonder if that would be considered high risk).

So yeah, I might consider a little bit in gold (probably RM10k in it) if I can achieve my first hurdle sooner than expected. Until that happens, I would like put everything I have into those boring dividend stocks to hit my target.

By the way, thank you for sharing this. Keep up the good work in updating us here so we can get informed of the latest changes thumbsup.gif
Jordy
post Jul 24 2019, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 23 2019, 06:03 PM)
30% chance of global recession according to Affin

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ssion/#cxrecs_s
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30% is considered low risk, last year MKE predicted a 40% chance of a global recession. Once it hits 60% chance then it is considered risky.
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post Jul 24 2019, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Jul 24 2019, 02:19 PM)
Yup. Let me know when it's 60%.
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Oh my, I hope we would not see that too soon sweat.gif
Jordy
post Aug 9 2019, 05:55 PM

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QUOTE(plouffle0789 @ Aug 9 2019, 03:34 PM)
How you buy usd???

Keep physical usd money note???
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Few ways one can buy and hold USD:

1. Buy physical USD cash and keep (the most common way)
2. Open a foreign currency deposit account (many banks do offer this)
3. Forex trading platforms (usually for short term trading based on contract)
Jordy
post Aug 10 2019, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(plouffle0789 @ Aug 9 2019, 08:22 PM)
Which method you use??
Which one best?
Open a foreign currency deposit account at bank,can give myr and they change to usd???
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I have no foreign currency deposit account, I am only keeping some USD in physical cash for now as my holding of USD is very small. I am increasing my holdings in SGD though.
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post Aug 10 2019, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(plouffle0789 @ Aug 10 2019, 11:08 AM)
How much you can earn if you change to sgd??
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I do not quite understand your question. But if you are asking me how much interest am I receiving on SGD, I can tell you it is very low at 1.5% only. But the reason I am transferring my money to SG apart from currency hedging is to invest my money in SG. So I don't mind the low interest rate as it only acts as a intermediary account.
Jordy
post Aug 10 2019, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(plouffle0789 @ Aug 10 2019, 11:14 AM)
Means you invest sg stock market???

Why not usd?
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I can only open a Sg account easily without a employment permit, whereas it is impossible for me to open a US account without working there. So I chose Sg, and another factor is due to its close proximity to Malaysia, I can get to "see" my money easier.
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post Aug 10 2019, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(plouffle0789 @ Aug 10 2019, 11:22 AM)
What bank???
But when you open?
They will ask many question wor
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All the info you need is in here https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1440794 and any further questions regarding the Sg bank account should be posted there. This is GOLDETF thread and any other discussion that deviates from the topic should end right here.
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post Aug 15 2019, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Aug 15 2019, 02:15 PM)
Golld has been pretty stable, inching up. I guess now waiting to see if China will send the People Liberation Army to the streets of HK.. N if that happens, for sure Gold will shoot up again.

In the meantime, I found something interesting at the fund managers website that I thought I share.

https://www.tradeplus.com.my/gold-tracker.html

If u go to the download section, there is a gold bar list you can download. U can check the manufacturer. That's the gold bars that the fund holds on your behalf as an investor. Remember that 1 unit equal to 0.01gm gold and a tiny bit of cash.
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Congrats on your gold ETF appreciation. Guess you have made quite a decent profit by now.

Also thank you for sharing the findings. It looks like their weightage of holdings in physical gold is 101.36% of their units in circulation at the moment. Any idea if they are still accumulating more physical gold?

 

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