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 Market timing vs. Buy and hold

Do you market time or do you buy and hold unit trusts?
 
Market time [ 12 ] ** [37.50%]
Buy and hold [ 20 ] ** [62.50%]
Total Votes: 32
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MUM
post Jul 1 2017, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ Jul 1 2017, 12:00 PM)
Choose right time and invest.
Don't simply buy unless the fund is deeply undervalued.
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choose right time?....how to know when is the "right" time?

fund is deeply undervalued?...how to know when is "deeply undervalued"?

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MUM
post Jul 2 2017, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jul 2 2017, 06:06 AM)
The world is greater than the kampung. Why one must limit oneself in the kangkong land especially if considered depreciating myr.

The herd is undoubtedly blinded by greed, couldn't separate the wheat from the chaff.
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"The world is greater than the kampung. Why one must limit oneself in the kangkong land...."
Nowadays, there is a wide range of products for consumers to choose from. It is important that you take time to choose something that is suitable for you. Take a look at your goals and investment objective, what investments you already have, what you can afford, and your risk profile.

Buy only what you fully understand – be familiar with the product’s benefits, risks, limitations and costs. Know how much you can lose in the worst case and how this may happen. Think about diversification - will the product complement, supplement or replace what you have? Or will you end up being over-exposed to a particular risk?

bottom line .......Kampung or condo does not matter, as long as it fits ones risk appetite and he/she are comfortable with it given returns for the allocate amount of time and effort one can spent.

"The herd is undoubtedly blinded by greed, couldn't separate the wheat from the chaff".
thumbsup.gif yes that is very true, .... to be able to that one must have the to wisdom to know and understand if he/she is a wheat or a chaff first.
listening to others without FIRST understand one self is like ....
a herd of buffalos or bison trying to follow a streak of tigers or a pride of lions.
a timid person trying to follow a group of gangsters for a fight
a guys that is happy with a FD rate returns for years trying to follow a person that do forex trading all his life.

bottom line .......it is their money after all, who are we to judge them for what they do.....they earn more or did not earn more with what they are doing does not matter to us in the end.

judge not lest ye be judged



MUM
post Nov 18 2017, 12:50 AM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Nov 18 2017, 12:47 AM)
When you invest in a lump sum, RM36k is locked for 10 years, whereas with dollar cost averaging, you only invest a fixed amount of RM300 every month over 10 years.
For the sake of fair comparison, the rest of the money for DCA should be put in a risk free investment (eg FD) while waiting to be invested on UT. 
So..the chart doesn't provide a fair comparison and its misleading.
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just add up the cumulative interest earned at 3%pa then add up to see if the sum is more than stated in the LSI?
That charts shows a different of Rm 30k....can the FD interest gives RM 30k?
With the monthly moving of money away from FD.....i agar agar calculate that the interest gained can achieve less than RM10k

This post has been edited by MUM: Nov 18 2017, 01:11 AM
MUM
post Nov 18 2017, 01:56 AM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Nov 18 2017, 01:43 AM)
Actually with the FD interest (assuming at 3.2%) invested back into UT monthly DCA, you can afford to invest RM350 instead of RM300 per month.  That will make a lot of different over 10 years.  But still I think LSI will always have a better return in an up trend.  Things is you will never know whether you are at the peak or the bottom until its too late.
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so that article is not misleading then?....
If i am not wrong...that article had been in the public domain for many many years already....and if it can be so easily found to be misleading then i think that author would hv corrected it.

I think t231h posted that to said that what you had said abt lsi lose money......is not 100% correct


This post has been edited by MUM: Nov 18 2017, 01:59 AM
MUM
post Nov 18 2017, 02:26 AM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Nov 18 2017, 02:18 AM)
The chart and explanation doesnt provide fair comparison thus is misleading. Its not about LSI outperformed DCA.

I didnt say all...i said most, thus its not 100%
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That chart did shows lsi out performed dca wor.
i guess that is why he said ...not 100% correct

btw, you mentioned something like
"The best way to invest in UT is dollar cost  averaging........Most ppl loss money in UT because they invest in one lump sum."
.........what does it imply?

This post has been edited by MUM: Nov 18 2017, 09:01 AM
MUM
post Nov 18 2017, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Nov 18 2017, 11:50 AM)
Using the chart to prove that LSI is better than DCA is very misleading and contain serious flaw in real world example. 
1. Unfair comparison in term of performance as explained in my earlier post.
but the results of the charts still proof that your post about LSI loss money is flawed....don't you think so?
2. There are thousand of other funds out there that performed differently from FBM KLCI.  
yes, but it did shows the charts still proof that your post about LSI loss money is flawed....don't you think so?

3. In real world, when we talk about LSI over a period of 10 years (that is a very long time),  we are talking about a few lump sum investment.  A normal working adult will not have that much sum of money to invest in one go unless he hit a lottery or inheritance which is rare.
it is not about affordability ...it is to shows that saying LSI is losing money if flawed.
Example of a real world Lump sump investment of RM 36k over 10 year
Year 0 - RM 6k
Year 2 - RM 8k
Year 4 - RM 6k
Year 6 - RM 6k
Year 8 - RM 5k
Year 9 - RM 5k

This is a real world case using LSI over 10 year period.  The result will be very much different from the chart.
T231H post did says something like....
Neither Is 'Better' Than The Other
In all fairness, nobody can say for certain whether Lump Sum Investment (LSI) or DCA is the better investment method. The reason is that adopting both methods in a different period would give different results depending on the prevailing market conditions.
Comparing LSI to DCA using one lump sum investment from start over a period of 10 year is very smart but its misleading.
have you read the article posted by estherkon....it is from another source.....
and this.....
"In this paper, we compare the historical performance of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) with lump-sum investing (LSI) across three markets:  the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. On average, we  find that an LSI approach has outperformed a DCA approach approximately two-thirds of the time, even when results are adjusted for the higher volatility of a stock/bond portfolio versus cash investments".....taken from...
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s315.pdf
same misleading too?
I believed most UT consultant would like you to invest in one lump sum so that they can earned the commission earlier.
this I think, the UT consultants would prefer DCA over LSI.....for they would prefer to have a more constant and predictable regular income from sales charges's commission
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This post has been edited by MUM: Nov 18 2017, 12:32 PM
MUM
post Nov 18 2017, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(Singh_Kalan @ Nov 18 2017, 03:29 PM)
I do not say that DCA will outperformed LSI over 10 years time, it all depends on the timing and type of funds.  Do not based all your assumption on the past result of a single fund.  Bear in mind there are thousand of funds out there that performed differently. 

With the same fund (eg FMB KLCI), I can choose a different period of historical 10 year (eg Jan 1997 - Jan 2007) duration that proof DCA can outperformed LSI by a wide margin.  But that is not the point cause I m not comparing the performance of which method used.  I just say those that loss money in UT most likely invest in one lump sum.  There are those that profited from LSI, I m not referring to those group of investor.

The way LSI is being illustrated (with initial one lump investment for the whole 10 year) in the chart is flaw & misleading.  Majority of LSI investor won't invest that way.  Instead they will invest few lump sum over 10 years period.  Do you agree with me ??

I m not going to comment on those report by Vanguard and others UT provider..  I believe its biased and does not tell the whole story.

Most UT consultant/company prefer lump sum commission instead of small commission over time.  That is their motivation to promote LSI.
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ok...point noted...
MUM
post Nov 19 2017, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(xiaoc.wu @ Nov 19 2017, 12:29 PM)
I choose buy and hold cz it is impossible to time the market. So I never try.
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after you had bought and held.....no change to the funds held even if it is bad for a long period of time?
cos if you do, then it will also sort of doing the timing thing....

 

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