📈 Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis – Weekly Timeframe
Wave Structure (Impulse Count):
Wave 1: Initial breakout and bullish trend shift.

Wave 2: Shallow corrective pullback, maintaining higher lows.

Wave 3: Strong, extended move — typical of a powerful impulsive wave.

Wave 4: Corrective phase bottomed near $74K, did not overlap Wave 3 top (~$73K) → adheres to Elliott Wave rules.

Wave 5: Currently unfolding — price has reached a new high (~$120K+), but early signs suggest it may be weakening.

🧠 Technical Observations:
🔹 Momentum & Volume:
Volume: Noticeably declining during Wave 5, consistent with a terminal wave scenario.

RSI: Holding near overbought territory (~67), but showing bearish divergence versus prior highs.

MACD: Histogram is flattening; potential bearish crossover developing, though not confirmed yet.

🔹 Divergence Watch:
In December 2024: RSI divergence without MACD confirmation → false top.

Currently: RSI and possibly MACD diverging — a stronger warning signal for a potential macro top.

🔍 Interpretation & Strategy View:
Market appears to be in the late stages of Wave 5.

Volume and momentum are not confirming the recent highs, suggesting exhaustion.

If MACD crosses bearish, this would likely confirm a top formation, especially if accompanied by a break of key support (~$74K).

⚠️ What to Watch For Next:
MACD Bearish Cross – Confirmed shift in weekly momentum.

RSI Breakdown Below 50 – Clear momentum loss.

Failure to sustain higher highs – Bearish reversal structures (e.g., double top, lower high).

Break of Wave 4 Support – Would trigger broader correction (potentially Wave A of an ABC).

🔮 Potential Targets for Wave 5 End
✅ 1. Fibonacci Extensions
Using the Wave 1–3 length and projecting from Wave 4, common targets for Wave 5 are:

• 0.618 extension of Wave 1–3:
Conservative target
→ Likely already hit or close
→ If Wave 3 = $73K - $25K = $48K
→ 0.618 * $48K = ~$29.6K
→ $74K + $29.6K = ~$103.6K ✅ (already surpassed)

• 1.0 extension (equal to Wave 1–3):
→ Full extension
→ $74K + $48K = ~$122K 🟡 (nearly hit now)

• 1.236 – 1.618 extensions (if extended):
→ Max typical for Wave 5 (though rare unless highly euphoric)
→ $74K + $59K to $77K = ~$133K to $151K

📉 2. Momentum + Divergence Signals
As you noted:

RSI divergence already forming

MACD potentially rolling over

This implies Wave 5 may already be topping or entering a blow-off phase, with limited upside left.

📊 3. Psychological & Structural Levels
$125K – Round number + potential resistance

$128K–$133K – 1.236 fib zone, potential euphoric extension

$150K – Max extension zone if hype/fomo accelerates, but volume doesn't support this yet

📌 Summary – Likely Wave 5 End Zones:
Target Type Price Range Probability
Equal Wave 3 (1.0x) ~$122K ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (high)
1.236 Extension ~$133K ⭐⭐⭐☆
1.618 Extension ~$150K ⭐⭐☆☆
Already Peaked ~$120K ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Most Likely Scenario (Current Data):
Wave 5 likely tops between $122K–$133K, unless momentum and volume suddenly expand. The RSI + flattening MACD support this zone as a likely exhaustion area.

If you want, I can project this visually on a chart or help plan trailing stop/exit zones based on this range.

Let me know how deep you want to go.