You should avoid this like the plague, unless you have the stomach to withstand the crash from 1 to 0.

Bitcoin value is that is sort of like Casino, it provide us a thrill of the gamble and seemingly have some control of things that we actually have no control off. The house always win. That's how casino is able to built palaces in desert. They provide enjoyment and entertainment.

The ironic thing about bitcoin is that it is built with a vision to counter manipulation from a central bank or government, but in the end human will always beat technology. Look at tether and its correlations to btc price and you will see it is similar to USD printing -> Gold price.

Bitcoin has ceased to be a currency, it is now an asset class so definitely it will tied back to fiat or some form of widely adopted currency to give it value.

If without fiat, how you do value bitcoin ? 1 bitcoin = ??

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211991-tether-death-spiral

Never trust bitfinnex. Always feel they will surely one day be the next mt.gox and when they crash they gonna take the whole crypto market along with them.

I stop everything on crypto once i saw the blog post of how tether is used to influence the btc prices. It was during Feb 18 and i have not regretted my decision.

blockchain is not done, but crypto... i dont know man.

It seemed now more than ever using crypto to pay for stuff or as a medium of exchange is harder than ever.

The practical use functions is almost to the point of like a commodity such as gold, where its main purpose is for profit, investment and trading. Not so much on functionality.

You can see the trend is more of people moving to private blockchain, there has been massive interest in blockchain by gov and institution and less in cryptos as the trend goes

to be honest cryptocurrency for year 2018 is not good.

It's a huge destroyer of wealth and a wastage of productivity for it's mining activities with little use. This is like gold but less widely adopted and recognized.

Trying to find a net gain from it is very hard.At this point, i would say paypal or visa is actually worth more than the cyrptos market. This assumption does not include other blockchain development such as food tracking etc.

Just strike me that trading crypto currently is almost the same as trading pink sheet stocks.

The characteristics is kinda similar:

1) Not highly regulated and does not required intense scrutiny of accounting book
2) Tend to be easily manipulated
3) Have low buy in cost (penny stocks)
4) Easy entry requirements (DOGE Coin ?)
5) High Risk, High Return
6) Possible chance to become worthless securities (0 value)

Trade with cautions. All in all, market makers are the one who earn in this highly volatile area.

But so far there is a trend of dip and reversal during holiday and CNY period. Just that overall the chart is negative in long term.

I think we should look at it's fair value rather than whether it disappear or not. Like all asset class consider is fair value, future prospect and your margin of safety.

Everything will realized it's fair value, time will make sure of it. If you think btc fair value is 20k USD, then that is your valuation.

It is very hard to put a figure around the price of an invention. When LED is first invented, it is worthless as there is no practical use. But as the technology progress we see company like Samsung making billions by turning inventions into practical products.

At the end everyone in this space need to assess their coins/crypto/ico is either a commodity (gold), a new invention (electricity), or a usable product (electric light bulb). Once you know what you are buying, you can then give it a fair value, a time horizon and ultimately whether your investment is right or wrong.

For me i value btc as just a memento of a new technology being invented. It does not have very practical used except as a limited edition keep sake. It is also not a commodity as digital coin is easily replicated. The value is maybe in the range of $500 - $700 for 1 BTC in 3 years time ? It's like a limited edition atari 2600. That's my take. I maybe wrong, time will judge.

Oh yeah, the crypto space is a haven for scammers not to mentioned. So yeah, this is like the dot com bubble but now with smarter engineers, financial wizards and snake oil salesman. So we need to be able to sort out the genuine from the fraud. Not all icos are scam, some maybe the next amazon / google in hiding.

Vechain is a startup with a REALLY good marketing & social media team. Also they are in a keyword industry now, much like AI & Bio-science startup.

The difference with VeChain is that instead of going for seeding round with Venture Capitals, they now did it with ICO and public money. Last time before ICO, retail investors has not much means to participate in startup funding. All those is limited to institutional investors.

So to do investing in startups, metrics you need to consider:

- Their Revenue source & streams
- Business Models
- Margins & EBITDA
- Their products offerings
- Active customers
- Their market size & share
- Potential Market Size & Share


Basically facebook monetize their "active user" by sellings advertisement, and they are good at it. So VET in turn should have a product to monetize their "token holders / authority Nodes" to businesses like BMW, Renault and charges a fee, thereafter the fees should then be distributed back to VET tokens holders as they are the company shareholders. But for what i know VET is offering those services for free / in collaborations, as such their revenue stream is still mainly on token price valuations. which is why they cannot disclose their revenue stream (concern 1).

Based on the above metrics, you can say the investment is "risky" but with high potential of return. They are currently valued at close to 300m USD. But their revenue stream is mainly from toke valuations & sales. Meaning their skills is in raising funds, however they still have yet to find a good way to monetize their "user base" which is the tokens holder. While at the other end, they don't have a functional products to charge clients like LVMH, BMW etc.

If VEchain really able to successfully monetize and generate revenue stream via dominating the logistics tracking industry, we could easily see the valuations from 300m jump to ten's of billions, like in the case of Airbnb and UBER taking over the hospitality and transportation industry.

However a word of cautions, in the startup space, unicorn startup with more than 1B valuations is less than 1%, and 60+% of firm after raising fund failed to produce commercially viable businesses. So this is the same for ICO. If you wanna invest in startup prepare to put money in 20 companies and risk 19 failing and 1 moon-ing.

Always do due diligence before investing. If you invest based on hype and this month "hot keyword" you will most likely get burned much like dot coms bubble, property bubbles, equity bubbles and what not. From 2008 - 2018, the real bubble is the "startup" valuation bubble IMO. Raising fund has become too easy.

That is my opinion, not a statement, so try not to take it personally and said that I'm spreading FUD. If a product is strong and fundamentals is strong FUD will never kill its existence. Don;t you realized google / microsoft never care much about FUD whereas riskier venture like Tesla is hellbent on attacking it's critics.

Also i appreciate your reply on this. It helps me to understand the picture better as well and give me some further leads to research. I have nothing against crypto or blockchain, to me all asset class has it's gem. Our job to get return is always to find gem in all industries, and new industries that experience investor is wary of touching always present good opportunities. But we need to always do our due diligence, so being a skeptic does not mean i'm out to kill your industry or discredit its value, i'm just doing my best to preserve my own capital by questioning everything that i have doubt in.

So to simplified things, should i say if VeChain has more users and people on its platform, their token value also rises right ? So by buying the token, doesn't that mean we also put a stake onto their futures platform potentials ? Ain't that the same as investing in a startup via equities ?

Also holding VET generate VTHO & VTHO is the currency for using the network. Ain't it the same as holding a company bond and it generate interest ? To me those are complicated terms to describe much of the same income process as what we have now.

Btw if they are a real company with real revenue, why do they need to spend so much time promoting the token. Why don't they focused head first into their product for their end customer ? Let the result do the talking ?

In term of supply chain, i see some really good company like ogydocs doing great work quietly. Why VET has to market themselve so aggressively ? I always thought their reason for this is to increase the token value like how before a company IPO they try to hype its valuations.

Libra is more of a digital token back by cryptography and blockchain technology while calibra is the wallet.

This could be the token that make proof of work style coins obsolete. They have strong backers and since its pegged to real world assets and kyc most likely will not faced as much backlashed from central banks and governments.

Also integrating with whatsapp and messenger will mean mass adoption. This is not a speculative or investment type token but more of a transactional tools in the digital era.

Btw it's permission network prove of stake model. So yeah it run against a lot of bitcoin founding principles.

But i predict the adoption will be great, as it sit in the middle ground between old financial industry & the new digital era of cryptography, this will meant their user base won't be too polarized.

The only possible indication that it could remotely tie to BTC is that coinbase is also a founding member.

If we really go into recession and bitcoin price continue to maintain a strong growth i will increase my holdings in btc.

A true test on what is the next replacement of gold/USD/JPY as safe haven assets would be a recession.

Recession will test people trust on the assets and the intrinsic value it represents. If bitcoin is really a FAD, then during a recession this will probably be the first assets class that people pull out from.

For those that kept coins in exchange do be careful. Don't get caught by another QuadrigaCX. Move your coin off exchange and only keep the minimum for transactions

Well just saw he is doing a third offering and this time its not a convertible note anymore.

Also i wonders what are the terms of the 1st and 2nd conversion. No such things as free money in the market i guess.

Evergrande and many in the community speculate that tether has alot of their holdings in evergrande bond paper thats why.

What are the chances of a Russian sanction that will include a cryptocurrency scope as well.

Im speculating that if sanction hit, Russian will most probably use crypto to circumvent it. Seemed like there is a small chance of a contagion risk for it if the US target crypto as part of Russian sanction.

How many of you guys are trading with margin or leveraged ?