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 Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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river.sand
post May 31 2017, 10:13 PM

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Got news saying RHB and AmBank will merge.
river.sand
post Jun 5 2017, 09:11 AM

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Wanna ask:
When you consider a company's equity, do you exclude non-controlling interests?


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river.sand
post Jun 6 2017, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 5 2017, 05:58 PM)
Thanks bro.

0.11 will deduct at share price 16 of jun?  Or at 7th of july ? 

I didn't plan to sell..
If take dividend. My profit is 2.5%... haha..
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Share price should drop on ex-date.
In theory it should drop by 0.11. In practice, the amount could vary.
river.sand
post Jun 6 2017, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jun 6 2017, 11:38 AM)
Hmm not so soon people will adapt to solar energy..
Take time..

My guess another 10years blush.gif
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Solar energy has already put pressure on utilities in the US.
But here, government probably will protect TNB...
river.sand
post Jun 8 2017, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 7 2017, 10:17 PM)
I know all sifus here stress on fundamental. Me too. But I want to ask do you guys really calculate the intrinsic value of those strong fundamental companies ? All those I learn from US books to calculate intrinsic value is not useful here in Bursa Malaysia? Most counters sifus mentioned here have strong fundamental I agree. But if I calculate the intrinsic value, most of them is overvalued. I expect 10-15% annualized return with my intrinsic value calculation. Am I doing smtg wrong? I'm quite lost.  cry.gif
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You use DCFA? How do you determine the discount factors and predict future cash flow? Maybe you can show us an example.

In any case, even with PEG method, not easy to find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time.
river.sand
post Jun 8 2017, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 8 2017, 08:33 PM)
I use EPS and dividend payout based on past 10 years to get total estimated return. Then use this formula to get a, R=ar^(n-1). And then discount it by 25% to get fair value. Then I use 2nd fair value which I get by discounting 33% from 52weeks highest and lowest's difference. Only when my stock price fall below both fair value I will buy it.

Yes. Exactly. This is my point, if we can't find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time, what should I do ? Die die also invest by just looking at fundamental? Or I wait? But then I read a quote which state that time in the market is more important than timing the market. Sifus can advise me what to do?  notworthy.gif

Or is my method wrong? Can sifus tell me was there a time in history where we could find such good and undervalued stock in Bursa Malaysia? Can point it out so that I can do some research on that period so that I know I will not be waiting for nothing? This only happen when this thread suddenly become quiet?  hmm.gif
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May I know what are the R and r in first formula?
I assume the 25% is margin of safety. In Malaysian market, you can hardly get anything with 25% MoS.

Recall that Warren Buffett said:
It's far better to buy a wonderful company at fair price, than a fair company at wonderful price.

So for wonderful companies, you may want to use a smaller MoS.

Other things we can do:
- search for undiscovered gems (not easy though)
- invest in overseas' market

If you are not comfortable investing in foreign stocks directly, try unit trust.
river.sand
post Jun 10 2017, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 9 2017, 02:51 PM)
Ahead of Hari Raya, anyone here buying consumers/garments stocks like Padini and Magni?
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What is PE?
PE = Price/EPS

EPS is calculated based on whole year earnings.
You don't buy a stock based on one-month brisk sales. You buy a stock if you anticipate good results one year ahead.


QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 9 2017, 09:21 PM)
Omg. Sifu, your words encouraged me again. Make me more confident that I'm not doing something wrong. Thanks a lot  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif

R=ar^(n-1)

R = total estimated returns (Expected price in eleventh year + Total dividends calculated using past 10 years EPS and dividend payout from EPS)
a = Intrinsic value of shares
r = Growth rate (which is adjustable, I put 10-15% because less than that I can get from UT, I did invest in FSM)
n = Years, in this case n=11

After I get a I will discount it by 25%. Like what sifu mentioned, hardly find any good fundamental PLUS undervalue stock, maybe I should be more lenient with my margin of safety or decrease my target growth rate. But base on your experience, did they ever appear, say during a recession in Bursa Malaysia? I just have to be patient?
I get this formula from a local book. What do you think?  notworthy.gif
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Can you show us how your book derives this formula?

river.sand
post Jun 14 2017, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 14 2017, 12:28 PM)
any shifu here can explain why Zecon ROE 51 but PE only 1.36 ?
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ROE
= PAT/Equity
= (PAT/Revenue) x (Revenue/Assets) x (Assets/Equity)
= Net Margin x Asset Turnover x Leverage Ratio

Try analyse the 3 factors.
river.sand
post Jun 14 2017, 09:48 PM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Jun 14 2017, 09:03 PM)
[attachmentid=8902235]
about EPS hmmm
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We normally compare y-o-y.
river.sand
post Jun 22 2017, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 22 2017, 11:31 AM)
The DY for Silk is about 30%. The interim dividend and special dividend totalled RM0.15. The current market price is RM0.50. Therefore if you buy RM10k, your dividend is RM3000? Better than Ponzi scheme?

But you have to study carefully first before going in.
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How is Silk's fundamentals? What if you buy at RM0.50, get dividend RM0.15, but price drops to RM0.25?

Sorry, busy these days, no time to study...
river.sand
post Nov 3 2017, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 2 2017, 03:19 PM)
Indonesia got 1..  brows.gif

Traded many times in out before.. good profits but must watch the metal chart like a hawk..
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Why not trade nickel futures instead?

river.sand
post Nov 7 2017, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(buncho89 @ Nov 7 2017, 11:18 AM)
construction stocks kena hentam today. whats happening...
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Gamuda drops 4%+
Wondering why hmm.gif
river.sand
post Nov 20 2017, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(royalz @ Nov 20 2017, 12:24 PM)
hi guys any comment on SCICOM ? accumulate more or dispose? being on the downtrend for quite some time.  bangwall.gif
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I am holding mine, neither accumulate nor dispose.
river.sand
post Nov 22 2017, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Nov 21 2017, 08:38 AM)
already got closed out a few positions, economy and QR good but stocks are not performing.

perhaps just wait for foreign investor to come back, meanwhile park most capital at FD waiting.
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Which companies report good QR but stock prices down?
Could be accumulating opportunities brows.gif
river.sand
post Dec 1 2017, 04:37 PM

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Public Bank dropped to 19.90.
Anything happened hmm.gif
river.sand
post Dec 11 2017, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 11 2017, 10:07 AM)
guys I want to ask what happens to stock markets if bitcoin bursts?
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Sell bitcoin and put into stock market.

river.sand
post Dec 20 2017, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 15 2017, 10:22 AM)
stock market is a weird creature.

AEON credit kena a tax of 96 million and instead of dropping its going up

VS industry posted a superb quarter report and yet it went down today.

Seriously....
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From what I read, VS profit up but still below expectation.
river.sand
post Mar 26 2018, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Mar 23 2018, 06:04 PM)
Growth-wise Inari, the other 2 unrated for me as both currently not appeared on my watchlist.
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From what I read, Inari is very dependent on Broadcom. Also its PE is a bit high for a tech stock.
river.sand
post Apr 9 2018, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(Barricade @ Apr 9 2018, 02:29 PM)
What's up with heng yuan and petron? Any news? Seem to keep going up since Friday.
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Overall market up...
river.sand
post May 10 2018, 04:07 AM

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Which stocks will fall when stock market reopens?

AirAsia
DRB-HICOM
Supermax
CMSB
Astro (if got free EPL)



I got CMSB cry.gif

This post has been edited by river.sand: May 10 2018, 04:12 AM

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