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 Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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Nemozai
post Jun 4 2017, 12:49 AM

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Can any sifus here open up my mind?

Scicom have a market price of 2.32, but a Book Value or NTA of 0.29. However the book value was growing year by year. ROE of 5 years average is 33%. Debt to equity ratio is 0.00. From these facts, how do sifus explain the low NTA value in comparison to market price?

My conclusion is
1. Maybe Scicom is being goreng to too high market price
2. The nature of the business require little assets and doesn't require owner to take loan to grow the business. No debt, little assets, and book value become low but ROE still able to remain high.
3. They issued too many shares but do not practice share buyback. Outstanding shares increase, book value decreases.

Am I correct?

On one hand, conclusion number 1 make me want to stay away from it. But on the other hand, the consistent high ROE and high EPS growth rate (25.84% 5 years growth rate) make me want to invest in it.
Based on these facts, will sifus invest in Scicom for long term? If yes or no, why? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 4 2017, 01:06 AM
Nemozai
post Jun 5 2017, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(Red_rustyjelly @ Jun 5 2017, 02:53 PM)
my portfolio now,
Vitrox - qued to sell
Airasia - qued to sell
Tenaga - dont know whether to hold or not.
Vizione - (dont know why i buy this stupid stock)
DRB-Hicom - Qued to sell
Eco-world
Maybank

which UT u purchased? I am going to meet an agent to buy Lion group.
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He have a UT porfolio with FSM MY. icon_idea.gif
Nemozai
post Jun 5 2017, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jun 4 2017, 06:14 PM)
Well u cannot go wrong with Tenaga..
There's no others companies supply Electricity to our home. I mean for Semenanjung Malaysia tongue.gif
Sabah & Sarawak got their own company..
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What if Elon Musk's solar roof tiles decided to invade Malaysia? rclxms.gif
Nemozai
post Jun 5 2017, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Jun 4 2017, 04:54 PM)
Generally, as a rule of thumb, you can say that for a company with a long-form ROE of 10%, the P/BV will roughly be around ~1.0X. However, from here on out, there is an exponential relationship between ROE and P/BV. So say a company with a long-form ROE of 20% may have a P/BV of 3.0X, and a company with a long-form ROE of 30% may have a P/BV of 6.0X etc.

For SCICOM over the past 2 years it has consistently got an ROE of ~42%. It's P/BV is 8.0X. I think it's an OK price. May even be undervalued. But I have no idea about future outlook since that's always priced in.

Personally, I never invest in these types of companies. Cause there is very little downside protection. The moment ROE tumbles P/BV will also fall hard.

I rather invest in "fallen giants" with depressed valuations or "growers" with undemanding valuations to protect myself on the downside. But really, you need to do your own research, cause SCICOM may fall under the "growers with undemanding valuations" category.
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Thanks a lot. notworthy.gif

I still got a lots to learn from sifus here notworthy.gif
Nemozai
post Jun 7 2017, 10:17 PM

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I know all sifus here stress on fundamental. Me too. But I want to ask do you guys really calculate the intrinsic value of those strong fundamental companies ? All those I learn from US books to calculate intrinsic value is not useful here in Bursa Malaysia? Most counters sifus mentioned here have strong fundamental I agree. But if I calculate the intrinsic value, most of them is overvalued. I expect 10-15% annualized return with my intrinsic value calculation. Am I doing smtg wrong? I'm quite lost. cry.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 7 2017, 10:44 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 8 2017, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 8 2017, 10:08 AM)
You use DCFA? How do you determine the discount factors and predict future cash flow? Maybe you can show us an example.

In any case, even with PEG method, not easy to find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time.
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I use EPS and dividend payout based on past 10 years to get total estimated return. Then use this formula to get a, R=ar^(n-1). And then discount it by 25% to get fair value. Then I use 2nd fair value which I get by discounting 33% from 52weeks highest and lowest's difference. Only when my stock price fall below both fair value I will buy it.

Yes. Exactly. This is my point, if we can't find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time, what should I do ? Die die also invest by just looking at fundamental? Or I wait? But then I read a quote which state that time in the market is more important than timing the market. Sifus can advise me what to do? notworthy.gif

Or is my method wrong? Can sifus tell me was there a time in history where we could find such good and undervalued stock in Bursa Malaysia? Can point it out so that I can do some research on that period so that I know I will not be waiting for nothing? This only happen when this thread suddenly become quiet? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 8 2017, 08:36 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 9 2017, 09:21 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 8 2017, 10:27 PM)
May I know what are the R and r in first formula?
I assume the 25% is margin of safety. In Malaysian market, you can hardly get anything with 25% MoS.

Recall that Warren Buffett said:
It's far better to buy a wonderful company at fair price, than a fair company at wonderful price.

So for wonderful companies, you may want to use a smaller MoS.

Other things we can do:
- search for undiscovered gems (not easy though)
- invest in overseas' market

If you are not comfortable investing in foreign stocks directly, try unit trust.
*
Omg. Sifu, your words encouraged me again. Make me more confident that I'm not doing something wrong. Thanks a lot notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

R=ar^(n-1)

R = total estimated returns (Expected price in eleventh year + Total dividends calculated using past 10 years EPS and dividend payout from EPS)
a = Intrinsic value of shares
r = Growth rate (which is adjustable, I put 10-15% because less than that I can get from UT, I did invest in FSM)
n = Years, in this case n=11

After I get a I will discount it by 25%. Like what sifu mentioned, hardly find any good fundamental PLUS undervalue stock, maybe I should be more lenient with my margin of safety or decrease my target growth rate. But base on your experience, did they ever appear, say during a recession in Bursa Malaysia? I just have to be patient?
I get this formula from a local book. What do you think? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 9 2017, 09:23 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 14 2017, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 14 2017, 12:28 PM)
any shifu here can explain why Zecon ROE 51 but PE only 1.36 ?
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Need to dive into annual report to investigate. But based on formula, I can make a wild guess. Maybe Zecon acquire lots of debt or sell off lots of assets which lead to decrease shareholder's equity and increase ROE.
Nemozai
post Jun 15 2017, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Jun 14 2017, 09:03 PM)
[attachmentid=8902235]
about EPS hmmm
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 14 2017, 09:27 PM)
Ye ke? I haven't read the report of Poh Huat yet. I only saw this...

Earnings per share (EPS) improved to 4.97 sen from 1.82 sen. Revenue for the quarter grew 20% to RM127.65 million from RM106.46 million in 2QFY16, its Bursa Malaysia filing today showed.
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Normally we compare earnings with the same quarter for last years. This is because some stock are cyclical in nature. Give you an example, for eg, consumer product industry earnings will increase during CNY (Jan, Feb) season, earnings will be higher in these seasons. biggrin.gif
Nemozai
post Jun 16 2017, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(Red_rustyjelly @ Jun 16 2017, 02:07 PM)
Sifus, what is the first at most important details when you guys evaluate a company performance?

I always compare Y to Y, then second come Q to Q.
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Not sifus but I can share.

First, I use stockscreener with such criteria

ROE >15%
Debt to equity < 0.5
Current Ratio > 2
Price to Book < 1.5

These criteria will left you with less than 20 counters, if not zero counter. But those company will have best fundamental.

Second, I calculate intrinsic value and fair value to see when I will go in those counters.

Then only I will study about the company. Possibly none left to study biggrin.gif

For me, there's no single most important value to evaluate a company performance, it's a combination of various values and factors.

I'm still learning. notworthy.gif

Can play with this free stock screener.

I myself still not so sure about this, can any sifus provide your valuable opinions?
A. Good company, good price.
B. Good company, not so good price.
C. Don't invest, wait for them to dip to good price. But Gods know when? Maybe it will never happen. You are losing time.

A is number one choice for me. But again, it's hard to find like a rare gem. So next what will sifus choose? B or C? This B or C really make me headache. rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 16 2017, 02:48 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 16 2017, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 16 2017, 03:57 PM)
i have to ask, you ignore PE in your screening?

Edit: i guess you have included PE < 10 with above 2 parameter.
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Yes I purposely ignore PE. Because it varies quite significantly between industries. This is for screening. For calculating intrinsic value I did include average 10 years PE. In short, I don't use it for screening, but I did use it when calculating my intrinsic value. And I average 10 years PE.

Screening is for fundamental. For this I really focus on fundamental only.
Calculating intrinsic value is to get fair price to enter. In my opinion, average PE work better here in valuation step.

What do you think? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 16 2017, 04:18 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 16 2017, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 16 2017, 02:56 PM)
Good screening. I will add increasing EPS and DPS.
For me, use google finance to see 5 years of price in graph form, if it's in the middle/low, buy. Of course some times exception happens and buy at high price but can average down.

Now that I have my dividends, I am using C. Before this, just buy (to get my dividend starting)
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Thanks Ramjade.

I find something interesting. I did look at increasing EPS at my third step, which is when I plan to dive deeper into the company. What I find was that with these criteria, almost all the companies I got have increasing EPS for past 10 years. Guess that's really how a good fundamental company will get increasing EPS most of the time? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 16 2017, 04:26 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 16 2017, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 16 2017, 04:21 PM)
what is your minimum expected earning growth for 5y and 10y?
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You mean my (stockholder's) earnings or company's earnings?

Edit: Assume u mean my earnings. I expect 10-15% annualized return for each counter. Again, I mentioned before, if less, I rather buy unit trust. So I don't bother buying counter which have expected return less than 10-15%. Expected is the keyword. I know it may fail to give me 10-15% return, for example in case the company I invest suddenly bankrupt but to the very least it's expected return must be 10-15%, not less.

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 16 2017, 04:36 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 16 2017, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 16 2017, 04:36 PM)
i mean based on the screener you shared, do you look for the company earning growth, as there is a filter on that.
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I didn't use earnings growth to screen(my first step) company. But I do use earning growth to calculate intrinsic value (my second step). Interesting fact is that even without putting earning growth in the stock screener, most of the stock counters that I got from that few criteria I listed usually have positive earnings growth. My method of valuation (second step) do require positive earning growth. With 0% or negative earning growth I can't estimate their intrinsic value, so I'll usually skip them. So I would say at least 1% for earning growth rates. But I think it won't make a difference to the list of stock counters that I get from stock screener.

What's your opinion? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 16 2017, 08:28 PM
Nemozai
post Jun 18 2017, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 17 2017, 09:21 AM)
so from earning growth you derived intrinsic value by projecting it into future and pick the best discount you could find from the market, am i right?

if that is the way, then you have to constantly adjust your intrinsic value whenever new earning released, and your model will be right and wrong from Q to Q.

So, i guess it end up would be same if one simply filter for positive earning growth in step one.

But for me i screen for technical as first step broadly, second step to verify whether fundamental fits my min requirements, because to me priority is risk control (or market timing) > selecting good company. At the point of fund availability, I look at what satisfy both my risk control and fundamental assessment and enter accordingly with tight sl. My method will not let me find the greatest stock in bursa, but most likely it will let price move in my favor most of the time to allow tp.
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So you look at technical analysis first, and then only u look at fundamental am I right? How do you screen for technical to prioritize risk control? Can you briefly tell me? I want to learn too. notworthy.gif

I want to make it clear.

Trader: Look at price movement and do technical analysis only, ignore fundamental completely.
Value investor : Find best company (best fundamental), then try to find intrinsic value (to look for entry price)
You: Try to find best price (with technical analysis), then enter if fundamental is strong, do not enter if fundamental is not strong.

Am I right? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 18 2017, 12:41 AM
Nemozai
post Jun 19 2017, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 18 2017, 04:06 PM)
briefly, you want to calculate drawdown between current price to fractals or moving average or previous resistance, whichever that previously responded well to derive the % risk. This method assume that most fundamentally good stocks would have moved hence technical risk would be rather high, so you could enter choosing the least risk among preciously filtered fundamental stocks basket. You wait patiently, if nothing within your defined risk factor, you stay out from market, sit on your itchy hands.

Nowadays you cannot define what trader or investor do exactly, they have each of their styles depending to their priority, risk appetite, fund size, investment timeframe, etc. In the end, the question you have to answer is what is your comfortable method that you feel most reasonable within your restrictions. But if you are a fund manager, first priority for you is manage your risk, fundamental/technical/market risks.
*
Learned something new. Thanks a lot lowya. notworthy.gif
Nemozai
post Dec 15 2018, 09:36 PM

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I'm also at 5 figures lost. Not cutting loss anytime soon. I just hope I can tank through this 🐻.

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