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 Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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HereToLearn
post Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 26 2020, 09:34 PM)
Let's post here.

I believe that there's a huge fallacy regarding dividends. You can lose money if one blindly invest just for dividends. Hold on. Take a breather cos I made a huge statement.. stay calm...let's do it one step at a time. Ok?

The 100% sure win statement is directed at dividend investing. Ok? There's no need to compare other things cos we would just agree.

So it's just dividend investing and Maybank.

So dividends and Maybank.

Does it really work? (let's see)

Do you think 3 years is a good time frame? Ie. If I invest in maybank some 3 years ago, it would show some positive returns in 3 years time. ( 3 years of collecting dividends woh.. surely it will show an investment in Maybank would yield a great return, yes?)
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Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now.
I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe.

But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend
If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend

U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win
HereToLearn
post Aug 26 2020, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM)
Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now.
I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe.

But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend
If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend

U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win
*
But still, I wont buy maybank now, because to me it is not undervalued yet. My pick is the extremely hard hitted CIMB with hin leong and hontop scandal in this crisis. Perfect double hit combo to fck the price.

For now, I can only pray that the banks counters will drop more (especially if the QRs are bad), so I can buy more. Also there is no guarantee that the price wont drop more in 2021, 2022 and so on, suddenly 1 corporate might bankrupt leading to one off reduced earnings again.
Again I would like to emphasize that there is no 100% winning strategy here.
HereToLearn
post Aug 26 2020, 09:51 PM

Look at all my stars!!
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM)
Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now.
I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe.

But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend
If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend

U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win
*
But still, I wont buy maybank now, because to me it is still overvalued yet. My pick is the extremely hard hitted CIMB with hin leong and hontop scandal in this crisis. Perfect double hit combo to fck the price. Above RM6, I will never buy MBB

For now, I can only pray that the banks counters will drop more (pray that the QRs will be bad), so I can buy more. Also there is no guarantee that the price wont drop more in 2021, 2022 and so on, suddenly 1 corporate might bankrupt leading to one off reduced earnings again.

Again I would like to emphasize that there is no 100% winning strategy here.
HereToLearn
post Aug 27 2020, 11:06 AM

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Like I said you are right NOW. Because the current sentiment does not favor bank. Maybe 1 year later, you will be wrong.

Just like buying gloves now will certainly get you fcked 1 year later
HereToLearn
post Aug 27 2020, 11:08 AM

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I buy on weakness for counters that have very high chance to rebound. Dont just buy shares for dividends at high price.

To me maybank share price is still too high (I will only consider if it drops below 6). My preference among the 3 big banks is CIMB
HereToLearn
post Aug 27 2020, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Aug 27 2020, 12:38 PM)
Maybank RM6 🤤🤤🤤🤤
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For me its below RM5.87. If it doesnt drop to the price, who cares? CIMB is still here for catch
HereToLearn
post Aug 27 2020, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 27 2020, 02:41 PM)
what's the indicator you look at when qualifying a stock?

what criteria do you have?

let's say for banking stocks, what are the things you look at?
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For now
P/B and P/E for the big 3s (MBB, PBB, CIMB), safer bet.

Before pandemic, one might include ROE too. Before pandemic higher ROE banks are preferred.
But higher ROE also means higher financial leverage, not sure if having higher financial leverage is good during pandemic.
So for now P/E an P/B.

You can also use CAGR, but banks dont really grow much anymore. So we dont use CAGR here
HereToLearn
post Aug 27 2020, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 27 2020, 03:39 PM)
which of the 3 banks you mentioned has the lowest PB? suspect CIMB has the lowest and PBB highest.
*
Yeap, you can check it online

For P/B just take current price divide current NTA
For P/E, I use EPS for 2019. cause this year confirm fck up. Their EPS should recover in 2021. So current price divide 2019 EPS

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