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 Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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cherroy
post Nov 19 2018, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(nikewee @ Nov 19 2018, 02:15 PM)
no..just not yet..they dominate too long..
do a simple math before and after their earning from Streamyx and Unifi then you get a clearer picture on this.

https://www.tm.com.my/Newsroom/Pages/TM-POS...ND-DIGITAL.aspx

if u use total number 2.3 m user now, average I use 200RM (insert number you wish here) unifi was RM139 streamyx 120+ and those corporate sure higher
now UNIFI discount 89, streamyx yet to down

assume average rev/user = RM140 now (insert any number you like also)

total profit down = 30% = 138 m x 12mth = 1.6 bil (cost same, infrastructure alr there, unless user number decline)

can they still sustain PBT of 194 m?
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


*I dont own this stock, I'm ikan bilis of ikan bilis, all calculation just very very rough...but correction are welcomed  rclxms.gif
*
Not count like that.
The reduction of Unifi/Streamy (if) at 30%, means you have reduce 2.3 mil x 30% of the subscription price. If average revenue per user (ARPU) reduces Rm30 per month, then total monthly revenue loss would be 2.3 mil x RM30 = Rm69 mil per months if cost is not reduced.

So market currently is pricing in the PBT may reduce significantly, unless some drastic measures (that involving cost cutting effect) are taken to mitigate the risk of lesser revenue.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 19 2018, 03:18 PM
cherroy
post Nov 21 2018, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(privatequity @ Nov 20 2018, 07:48 PM)
Hi cherroy,

I find your replies and thoughts r very constructive and practical. Would you mind to share your current investment strategy (wait and see/start buying cheap stks, if yes, which industry do you look at etc) and your asset allocation (% in equities, cash, other assets etc)?

And what's your view on the market? Do you see more opportunities or do you see more uncertainty coming to the us and the market?

My humble opinions as follows:-

There are many stocks, esp in construction sector, their share prices are on 52 weeks' low. Dare not to say cheap as it can be very subjective, when the earnings prospect r bad, the current low PER will become higher PER when lower earnings to be delivered later. If the company is going to deliver negative earnings, those big believers in PE Ratio will not be able to convince themselves to click the buy button - given the negative forward PER.

However, every company has its value (brand equity and reputation it has built in the previous years, customer base etc.) and there's always hope in the future (worst will be gone and we always seek for better). That requires vision of investors, not only doing number crunching, but also requires a strong business and economic sense.

Another concern to me is that even though there are a lot of bargains or value buy. Recovery could be few weeks, months or even years away. Can be quite impatient when capital gets stuck in a counter for a long period of time, even though it's cheap, but the share price doesn't move, in this case, opportunity cost matters. Inflection point (clear sign of recovery) seems easier to get into.

Would love to hear from cherroy bro! Looking forward to your reply. Thanks!!
*
Those have steady dividend should be able to sail through current difficult period.

Construction, airliner stocks are generally in cyclical in nature over the long term, you need to know how to buy during its dip, and sell during boom.

Recovery won't take weeks, but years.

52 weeks low or high won't give indication whether the stock is bargain or not.
In fact, if trading at 52 weeks means the stock is down trend, and likehood you will encounter a scenario, after bought, plunge another 10~20%. (if looking from the pov of trading or short term)

Based on experience, I never want to touch the stock that is trading at 52 weeks, as it means something is wrong for the stock if it is in big down trend.
The risk may actually higher if bought at 52 weeks compared to 52 weeks high.
A stock price won't simply moves to 52 weeks low/high without reason.

Look at their financial result, cashflow position to judge whether a stock is indeed in bargain situation or not.
Some may drop a lot, but not actually a bargain, due to deteriorate fundamental.





cherroy
post Nov 22 2018, 08:56 AM

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QUOTE(Kjk014 @ Nov 22 2018, 12:38 AM)
Is the limit to buy via maybank2u platform is only 500 lot per transaction ???

What if I want to buy more, I hv to do multiple buying transaction for the same counter ???

If yes, I hv to pay min rm8 for every transaction eventho 500 lot = only rm2000 ???
*
Multiple transaction /= multiple contract.

Most brokers houses will consolidate the same counter bought/sell within the day into one contract.

Eg.Buy
1.00 x 10 lot
1.05 x 10 lot
1.10 x 10 lot

There will be only 1 contract stated 30 lot x RM1.05, and commission, stamp duty, clearing fee are counted based on single contract.
cherroy
post Nov 22 2018, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Nov 22 2018, 01:53 PM)
receive a right issue in warrant form, warrant is available for trade now but subscribetion due date is on next early month.

what if is sell now but not subscribe, what happend?

anyone can clarify, the counter KYY favourite Jaks
*
After sell, receive cash loh... laugh.gif

After you sell, you have no right to subscribe the warrant anymore
The buyer of the right will have the right to subscribe the warrant that will be issued at RM0.25.

cherroy
post Nov 27 2018, 08:57 AM

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GentingM is likelyhood to drop big in the opening.
cherroy
post Nov 27 2018, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(tstan8_8 @ Nov 27 2018, 09:21 AM)
Genting sure very hate new gov
*
The latest issue is about Fox, nothing to do gov.
cherroy
post Nov 27 2018, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Nov 27 2018, 10:52 AM)
What does impairment of the network assets mean?

Is it a one time thing ?
*
Impairment generally is one off.

Eg.
An asset may/is valued its ability to generate future income.
If the asset may no long able to generate the same future income as previously, impairment is needed to reflect its true value.

Eg.
You buy website at 1 mil that can generate you an income Rm10k per month.
In the balance sheet, you register the website as asset at 1 mil.

But due to changing business environment, now only can generate Rm5k per month (accountant and auditor agreed so), then the company may need to register an impairment of 500K of the website/asset.

We saw lot of impairment in O&G sector previously due to crude oil price dropping a lot, as their asset/equipment may not able to generate the same income for them like previously.

At the same time, impairment can be written back as well (as profit), if those asset become more valuable and can generate more income in the future.
cherroy
post Nov 28 2018, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(nikewee @ Nov 28 2018, 12:55 PM)
recently really hard to predict a...those should up base on performance go down instead.
Those performance no good up pula.

PE 5 DY 9% also down till PE 4.5  << hopefully QR come out wont waterfall

another PE 5 drop till PE 4.0, DY 5%...

everybody just prefer batu than gem sad.gif
*
PE is not a good yield stick to judge at current economy situation, especially those sector that are in uncertainty.
As a deteriorated sector/business can mean next year profit down to the drain, so past PE number become irrelevant in this kind of situation.

The market is always concern about sustainable profit and dividend yield, if the market view those are not sustainable, stock price likelyhood will go south, even you have low single digit PE.

While if the particular company business has good prospect, even a PE 20, market also willing to pay for it.

Market is forward looking, not backward.
cherroy
post Dec 11 2018, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(Moneylust @ Dec 10 2018, 06:45 PM)
Almost every forumer who have invested significant amount of money in the stock market are sitting on painful losses.

I dunno about you guys, but Warren Buffett quotes bring no comfort to me.

Until this year, I seldom drink alcohol. Now I've lost count of the number of beer cans I've emptied. I drink Carlsberg products btw, for those of you 'value investors' out there.

Also buy 4d jackpot lottery tickets now, safer than the stock markets, haha.

Last night, I dream that I was walking to the 14th floor, dressed all in red.
*
If bought Carlsberg, then still sitting at gain and still getting good dividend yield.

Some food for thought in stock selection.


cherroy
post Dec 13 2018, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Dec 13 2018, 04:51 AM)

If want buy then don't buy a lot. I am not  from o&g sector so my opinion is very shallow and surface level. The way i treat it as my gamble stock only.
*
If really want to invest in O&G sector, my suggestion is go for the most upstream player, like Petronas (we can't invest as it is non-listed), Shell, Exxonmobil etc, they will instantly reap more profit once oil price going up.

While most listed O&G companies in KLSE are on service/contract based one, so even oil price shoot to USD80~100, they may not benefit from it as contract profit margin is not as lucrative as it was.
Crude oil price up /= contract profit margin up.

Upstream companies nowadays are more careful in capex and more cost prudent as compared when oil price was more than USD100 time.

Those O&G service sector, the main issue is their debt, as oil related work is always capital intensive, so plenty of them are rely on heavy debt to finance their work. So watch their debt level and cashflow.
The main issue is cashflow and debt refinance, not about oil price high or low for those company at current situation.

cherroy
post Dec 18 2018, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(razorknight @ Dec 18 2018, 03:46 PM)
Question on intra day short selling.....

As we all know as of April 2018, we trader can short sell on a selected counter on an intra day basis..... but i got a question....

Say in the morning 10am i short sell on a counter ABC ..... i sell first without owning any units......

Later in the afternoon, this counter ABC got suspended due to heavy short selling by bursa.....

How do i buy back at end of day to replace the unit which i have sold units in the morning??

What will happen to me as a short selling trader if the above scenario happens.....

This is so as i seen many counter got suspended due to heavy short selling basis ..... our KLSE is only intra day basis....but half way aready got suspended....

We how?

Anyone can answer to the above??? and what other option do i have??

Thank you in advance
*
Scenario A :
Stock won't be suspended simply due to heavy selling.
Only IDSS will be halted once stock price drops more than 15%.
Those already short sell through IDSS will still able to buy back through open market.

So this scenario A is not applicable, as the worst is the stock limit down, whereby short seller in the morning still able to buy back.

Scenario B
Short seller is not closing the short position due to own fault, or whatever reason (like stock being suspended, limit up, (no seller available etc)

A "Buying In" may be imposed, whereby short seller needs to pay 10 ticks above the previous price, so that shares will be delivered immediately to cover the short position. Many seller in the market are willing to sell at this premium price to you. biggrin.gif

Under normal circumstances, shares only deliver after T+3, while under "buying in" mechanism, shares will be delivered immediately. Actually in ordinary trading days, there are always some "buying in" activities around as well, which kicking in at noon session.
There are people sell wrongly each day one especially in the old day, but with today better online platform and linking system program, it is unlikely for investor to sell extra, as system won't let your order to go through, once you key in beyond the number of shares you have.

Also, broking firms do have "borrow shares mechanism" between them, to cover any short position of shares that if occurring.

Basically you will be "penalised" to short sell shares that you do not have or do not cover the IDSS by paying a premium price for it.


cherroy
post Dec 18 2018, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(razorknight @ Dec 18 2018, 05:29 PM)
Only we cannot sell anymore through IDSS if the counter is halted once stock price drops more than 15%.

So in short,
short selling in intra day only can give us a max return of 15% ??? since anything beyond 15% the counter will be halted for trading...... This is when the stock dive downward trend..... is this understanding correct??

thank you sifu....
*
Not quite correct, as max can go until 30% (limit down).

15% just means no more fresh IDSS can be done at that point. Previously IDSS done earlier before reaching the 15% limit, still have chance to get profit more than 15%, until reaching the limit down price (30%)

In fact, max is 60% under prefect scenario for IDSS.

Morning limit up +30%, then you short it via IDSS, then it plunges limit down -30%. laugh.gif
This like hitting lottery already... laugh.gif
cherroy
post Jan 3 2019, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Jan 3 2019, 01:10 PM)
What do you guys think of TENAGA for a defensive/dividend play.

What would be your go to defensive stock ?
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Tenaga previously was not known as dividend play.
But recent years of dividend were quite generous, if they can continue the generous dividend policy, yes, it may be a good dividend play.

Having said that, its future largely depended by ICPT mechanism that if remains status quo going forward, then its financial result and cashflow may be quite stable.

Risk,
1) USD appreciated - as it has plenty of USD long term loan.
2) Fuel cost increase, and ICPT mechanism being changed.



cherroy
post Jan 15 2019, 04:57 PM

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Property stocks that are trading at more than 50% discount to its NAV and no debt, may pose a good long term target currently, as well as privatisation target.

Btw, SPB just up its privatisation offer to Rm6.30.
5.70 -> 6.00 -> 6.30.


cherroy
post Jan 17 2019, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(chiafoo @ Jan 16 2019, 10:12 PM)
I dont think 2nd is correct .
He bought the warrant at RM1.71 long time ago and final exercise price is 0.39 , now warrant RM4.24 mean he is earning (4.24-1.71= RM2.53)  and mother RM4.64 , exercise is 0.39 . Y he need pay RM4.24+RM0.39?
To exercise his warrant = his warrant shares unit  x exercise price 0.39 only . Nw ur mother share cost price RM1.71+RM0.39 = RM2.09 only , if u sell u will earn RM4.64-RM2.09 = RM2.55

*
You just need to pay for the warrant exercise price to convert W to mothershare.

Alternatively, can just sell the warrant in the market, and buy the mothershare, but at a price of little brokerage incurred (by then you don't need to wait for troublesome conversion process and time)
Conversion takes sometimes (week or weeks) before mothershare is issued.

As warrant is not trading at discount, there is no advantage opt for conversion.

Whether to sell and take profit, or keep for long term. Have no comment on this part as I don't follow the particular stock.
cherroy
post Jan 17 2019, 11:56 AM

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Personally don't like warrant as most warrants are trading at high premium and relatively short expiry date especially CW

3 scenario may happen on mothershare from now to expiry date, if buy warrant and hold until expiry.

a) Up - if mothershare up more than premium paid, warrant make profit. Good profit due to gearing factor

b) Stagnant - the premium paid on the warrant burned - loss.

c) down - if worst, out of money, total capital invested in warrant burned - loss

The big disadvantage of warrant is scenario b, as most of the trading day, stock price won't up and down significantly.
So time is enemy.

If really want to speculate, futures is easier to make money, and don't need to pay any premium.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 17 2019, 11:58 AM
cherroy
post Jan 24 2019, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(Jackwei94 @ Jan 24 2019, 02:59 PM)
Hey guys, newbie here. I had place a buy order on a share. What does matched stock mean? does this mean that I had successfully buy the stock? any further procedure once the stock is matched?
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Matched = your buy order is done already.

You don't need to do anything apart from paying for the purchase within T+3 days.
cherroy
post Feb 16 2019, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Feb 16 2019, 01:33 PM)
Hi, i have a basic stock market question. Let's say i'm selling 50k units of shares at one go, does this mean it will take longer to sell? Priority will go to the smaller portion of shares?

What is fundamental procedure? Does it need to match with another willing buyer of 50k units or it automatically assigns to various buyer to sell the 50k units?
*
Priority is based on
1) pricing, lower price get first to sell vice versa, higher price of buy get first.

2) if pricing is the same, the based on timing or order (earlier order get matched first)

Nothing to do with smaller or bigger number of shares.
cherroy
post Feb 22 2019, 11:07 AM

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Crack spread for petrol (Mogas95) has been dropping a lot until one time nearly negative, refiner won't able to chalk up good profit without a good crack spread.

The one that has good crack spread is diesel.

But refiner can't produce solely on diesel, as petrol is the by product (end product) while refining.
cherroy
post Feb 22 2019, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Feb 21 2019, 06:49 AM)
For me I won't compare second qr tis year and last year seconf qr
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Actually with news or report always compared with last year Q, the % rise/drop in the report sometimes doesn't give a good clue.

Personally I always compare with immediate preceding Q instead of last year Q.

Current vs lastest preceding Q gives you a clue whether the business/profit trend is improving or not eventually affecting the share price trend as well, except for those business has seasonal effect.



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