AJI RM15
Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam
Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam
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Aug 7 2020, 04:22 PM
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Senior Member
4,821 posts Joined: Mar 2009 |
AJI RM15 ehwee liked this post
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Aug 10 2020, 01:56 AM
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Junior Member
552 posts Joined: Aug 2010 |
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Aug 10 2020, 09:27 AM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#4963
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Senior Member
3,101 posts Joined: Feb 2014 |
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Aug 11 2020, 09:48 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#4964
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Junior Member
650 posts Joined: Jun 2020 |
QUOTE(westernkl @ Aug 10 2020, 01:56 AM) Check out this blog: https://malaysiayounginvestor.blogspot.com/...cdsaccount.htmlIt pretty much sums up the differences between Nominee and Direct CDS. If you are still confuse with which to choose, then you wouldn't go wrong with Direct CDS since I believe you are just exploring stock investing/trading and direct CDS pretty much gets the job done This post has been edited by Ziet Inv: Aug 11 2020, 09:48 PM |
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Aug 26 2020, 09:34 PM
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 08:50 PM) And the assumption is dividends will make you money? Let's post here. Yes? They been paying dividends for years. If they dont pay dividends, why would unit trust funds still hold banks? Q1 2019 earnings dropped so much because 500m credit loss (hin leong) and trading income dropped in Q1 'due to volatile trading condition', if you remove this, it give PBT of 1.2m, which will give EPS of 9-10. It is still lower than last year's EPS, but last year it was traded at RM 5.1-5.8 in Q1 2019 Just look at the revenue, YoY change almost negligible *due to volatile trading condition = market crash (they just reworded it 'nicely') For this PE, totally worth it IMO. Are you sure it is a 100% sure win strategy? No. There is no 100% sure win strategy, same for the gloves and pennies. People are making assumptions that others will buy it higher from them. For gloves, when almost everyone knows that the earnings are not sustainable. For pennies, when almost everyone knows that companies are at -ve earnings. I believe that there's a huge fallacy regarding dividends. You can lose money if one blindly invest just for dividends. Hold on. Take a breather cos I made a huge statement.. stay calm...let's do it one step at a time. Ok? The 100% sure win statement is directed at dividend investing. Ok? There's no need to compare other things cos we would just agree. So it's just dividend investing and Maybank. So dividends and Maybank. Does it really work? (let's see) Do you think 3 years is a good time frame? Ie. If I invest in maybank some 3 years ago, it would show some positive returns in 3 years time. ( 3 years of collecting dividends woh.. surely it will show an investment in Maybank would yield a great return, yes?) |
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Aug 26 2020, 09:37 PM
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
Ps.. going out.. chat tomorrow HereToLearn liked this post
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Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 26 2020, 09:34 PM) Let's post here. Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now.I believe that there's a huge fallacy regarding dividends. You can lose money if one blindly invest just for dividends. Hold on. Take a breather cos I made a huge statement.. stay calm...let's do it one step at a time. Ok? The 100% sure win statement is directed at dividend investing. Ok? There's no need to compare other things cos we would just agree. So it's just dividend investing and Maybank. So dividends and Maybank. Does it really work? (let's see) Do you think 3 years is a good time frame? Ie. If I invest in maybank some 3 years ago, it would show some positive returns in 3 years time. ( 3 years of collecting dividends woh.. surely it will show an investment in Maybank would yield a great return, yes?) I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe. But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win |
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Aug 26 2020, 09:50 PM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM) Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now. But still, I wont buy maybank now, because to me it is not undervalued yet. My pick is the extremely hard hitted CIMB with hin leong and hontop scandal in this crisis. Perfect double hit combo to fck the price. I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe. But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win For now, I can only pray that the banks counters will drop more (especially if the QRs are bad), so I can buy more. Also there is no guarantee that the price wont drop more in 2021, 2022 and so on, suddenly 1 corporate might bankrupt leading to one off reduced earnings again. Again I would like to emphasize that there is no 100% winning strategy here. |
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Aug 26 2020, 09:51 PM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM) Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now. But still, I wont buy maybank now, because to me it is still overvalued yet. My pick is the extremely hard hitted CIMB with hin leong and hontop scandal in this crisis. Perfect double hit combo to fck the price. Above RM6, I will never buy MBBI cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe. But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win For now, I can only pray that the banks counters will drop more (pray that the QRs will be bad), so I can buy more. Also there is no guarantee that the price wont drop more in 2021, 2022 and so on, suddenly 1 corporate might bankrupt leading to one off reduced earnings again. Again I would like to emphasize that there is no 100% winning strategy here. Wolger liked this post
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Aug 27 2020, 09:05 AM
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM) Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now. Of course, you get to choose the time frame.... and you choose the peak? LOL!I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe. But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win I was gonna handicap you and let you choose the lowest price of the said year... ie... lowest of 2013 and lowest 2018. 2009 period? That was when the market crashed la.... any one stock also can win lo (which will make any case study pointless!) |
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Aug 27 2020, 09:40 AM
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:45 PM) Tbh, you are right NOW because banks are hit hard now. Let's look at the assumption you can buy at the lowest in 2013.... which should be around 8.90 in Jan 2013.I cant win you in this argument, because u choose the timeframe. But if you let me choose the time frame, I will pick 2009-2011, then I win? from both capital gain and dividend If I pick the peak at 26 JUly 2013 (RM 10.7) and peak at 8 May 2018 (RM 10.7), then I win? from dividend U pick a fight that u will win, of course u will win Purchase Jan 2013. Price RM8.90 Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.535 + 0.57 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 4.255 Price today = 7.46 Current *loss* (Sorry 'paper loss' is still loss lol) = 7.46 - 8.90 = 1.44 Total dividend = 4.255 Therefore TOTAL current gain = 2.815 That's about just a CAGR gain of 3.5% for 8 years. Yup it's a win but that's a 8 years of investing ... is it worth it? is it the best investment for your money? >>>>> If bought at peak July 2013... 10.70 Earn one less dividend ... ie wouldn't receive the 0.33 dividend. So total dividend = 3.925 Current loss = 7.46 - 10.7 = 3.24 Therefore TOTAL current gain = 0.685 Yup... still a gain... but barely *********************************** For 2018, we just do the lowest price la... Purchase June 2018. Price 8.70 Dividend received since = 0.57 + 0.64 = 1.21 Current price = 7.46 Current loss = 7.46 - 8.70 = 1.24 Total dividend = 1.21 TOTAL current LOSS = 0.03 *cough* =============================== Well? Are you surprised with the results? Not forgetting the fact I deliberately chose the lowest price of the year.... ie the assumption the investor is so good that he/she is able to buy at the lowest price of the year.... |
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Aug 27 2020, 11:06 AM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
Like I said you are right NOW. Because the current sentiment does not favor bank. Maybe 1 year later, you will be wrong.
Just like buying gloves now will certainly get you fcked 1 year later |
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Aug 27 2020, 11:08 AM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
I buy on weakness for counters that have very high chance to rebound. Dont just buy shares for dividends at high price.
To me maybank share price is still too high (I will only consider if it drops below 6). My preference among the 3 big banks is CIMB |
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Aug 27 2020, 12:33 PM
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All Stars
15,942 posts Joined: Jun 2008 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 27 2020, 11:06 AM) Like I said you are right NOW. Because the current sentiment does not favor bank. Maybe 1 year later, you will be wrong. Of course 1 year later I could be wrong. Who knows. But we are living the moment now. Hence, I am talking now and right now, it is my flawed opinion but I do think it's risky to simply assume investing in bank stocks for its dividends is a great idea. cwhong and HereToLearn liked this post
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Aug 27 2020, 12:38 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#4975
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Senior Member
2,992 posts Joined: Feb 2015 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 27 2020, 11:08 AM) I buy on weakness for counters that have very high chance to rebound. Dont just buy shares for dividends at high price. Maybank RM6 🤤🤤🤤🤤To me maybank share price is still too high (I will only consider if it drops below 6). My preference among the 3 big banks is CIMB |
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Aug 27 2020, 01:25 PM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
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Aug 27 2020, 02:41 PM
Show posts by this member only | IPv6 | Post
#4977
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Senior Member
5,529 posts Joined: Oct 2007 |
what's the indicator you look at when qualifying a stock?
what criteria do you have? let's say for banking stocks, what are the things you look at? |
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Aug 27 2020, 03:12 PM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 27 2020, 02:41 PM) what's the indicator you look at when qualifying a stock? For now what criteria do you have? let's say for banking stocks, what are the things you look at? P/B and P/E for the big 3s (MBB, PBB, CIMB), safer bet. Before pandemic, one might include ROE too. Before pandemic higher ROE banks are preferred. But higher ROE also means higher financial leverage, not sure if having higher financial leverage is good during pandemic. So for now P/E an P/B. You can also use CAGR, but banks dont really grow much anymore. So we dont use CAGR here |
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Aug 27 2020, 03:39 PM
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Senior Member
5,529 posts Joined: Oct 2007 |
QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 27 2020, 03:12 PM) For now which of the 3 banks you mentioned has the lowest PB? suspect CIMB has the lowest and PBB highest.P/B and P/E for the big 3s (MBB, PBB, CIMB), safer bet. Before pandemic, one might include ROE too. Before pandemic higher ROE banks are preferred. But higher ROE also means higher financial leverage, not sure if having higher financial leverage is good during pandemic. So for now P/E an P/B. You can also use CAGR, but banks dont really grow much anymore. So we dont use CAGR here |
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Aug 27 2020, 03:54 PM
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Senior Member
2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 |
QUOTE(tehoice @ Aug 27 2020, 03:39 PM) Yeap, you can check it onlineFor P/B just take current price divide current NTA For P/E, I use EPS for 2019. cause this year confirm fck up. Their EPS should recover in 2021. So current price divide 2019 EPS |
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