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 Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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theevilman1909
post Jun 9 2017, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 9 2017, 02:51 PM)
Ahead of Hari Raya, anyone here buying consumers/garments stocks like Padini and Magni?
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nope. just watching first smile.gif
dontlosecapital
post Jun 9 2017, 05:43 PM

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SELL MY jkgland @0.12 ,
breakeven..

monday ~~ can buy 2 stock
TSnexona88
post Jun 9 2017, 08:17 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 9 2017, 02:51 PM)
Ahead of Hari Raya, anyone here buying consumers/garments stocks like Padini and Magni?
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On my watchlist.. tongue.gif
Nemozai
post Jun 9 2017, 09:21 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 8 2017, 10:27 PM)
May I know what are the R and r in first formula?
I assume the 25% is margin of safety. In Malaysian market, you can hardly get anything with 25% MoS.

Recall that Warren Buffett said:
It's far better to buy a wonderful company at fair price, than a fair company at wonderful price.

So for wonderful companies, you may want to use a smaller MoS.

Other things we can do:
- search for undiscovered gems (not easy though)
- invest in overseas' market

If you are not comfortable investing in foreign stocks directly, try unit trust.
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Omg. Sifu, your words encouraged me again. Make me more confident that I'm not doing something wrong. Thanks a lot notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

R=ar^(n-1)

R = total estimated returns (Expected price in eleventh year + Total dividends calculated using past 10 years EPS and dividend payout from EPS)
a = Intrinsic value of shares
r = Growth rate (which is adjustable, I put 10-15% because less than that I can get from UT, I did invest in FSM)
n = Years, in this case n=11

After I get a I will discount it by 25%. Like what sifu mentioned, hardly find any good fundamental PLUS undervalue stock, maybe I should be more lenient with my margin of safety or decrease my target growth rate. But base on your experience, did they ever appear, say during a recession in Bursa Malaysia? I just have to be patient?
I get this formula from a local book. What do you think? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 9 2017, 09:23 PM
river.sand
post Jun 10 2017, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 9 2017, 02:51 PM)
Ahead of Hari Raya, anyone here buying consumers/garments stocks like Padini and Magni?
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What is PE?
PE = Price/EPS

EPS is calculated based on whole year earnings.
You don't buy a stock based on one-month brisk sales. You buy a stock if you anticipate good results one year ahead.


QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 9 2017, 09:21 PM)
Omg. Sifu, your words encouraged me again. Make me more confident that I'm not doing something wrong. Thanks a lot  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif

R=ar^(n-1)

R = total estimated returns (Expected price in eleventh year + Total dividends calculated using past 10 years EPS and dividend payout from EPS)
a = Intrinsic value of shares
r = Growth rate (which is adjustable, I put 10-15% because less than that I can get from UT, I did invest in FSM)
n = Years, in this case n=11

After I get a I will discount it by 25%. Like what sifu mentioned, hardly find any good fundamental PLUS undervalue stock, maybe I should be more lenient with my margin of safety or decrease my target growth rate. But base on your experience, did they ever appear, say during a recession in Bursa Malaysia? I just have to be patient?
I get this formula from a local book. What do you think?  notworthy.gif
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Can you show us how your book derives this formula?

contestchris
post Jun 10 2017, 02:43 PM

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Given I just started investing at the start of this year, can any sifus here give comment about my choices and returns, and future prospects of my holdings?

Because my portfolio weighting has a heavy tail (earlier purchases small amounts, later ones have larger amounts), I will list them down below. Plus, my earlier purchases have been my best performers, my latter ones are rather flattish.

Date | Counter | Transaction price | % of portfolio on cost basis

3/1/2017 Armada - 0.605 (4.7%)
10/2/2017 Armada - 0.63 (4.1%)
27/2/2017 AirAsia - 2.67 (3.8%)
3/3/2017 Ikhmas - 0.57 (6.1%)
13/3/2017 Esceram - 0.465 (5.3%)
7/4/2017 Parkson - 0.64 (14.3%)
21/4/2017 Tenaga - 13.68 (28.6%)
15/5/2017 Hevea - 1.29 (18.1%)
26/5/2017 Ikhmas - 0.74 (SELL ALL)
7/6/2017 Tchong - 1.82 (15.3%)

My gross returns (before fees) are 6.97% and my net returns are 5.34% using the basic returns calculation formula. If I use a XIRR formula the returns are much higher but I don't think it's fair to use that.

My next move would be to sell off AirAsia (since it makes up such a small, insignificant portion of my portfolio). I will also look to top up on Parkson and/or Tchong depending on a wide-range of factors (none of my other holdings will be topped up at current values), or look to expand my portfolio with prime candidates being Mhb, Tambun and Prlexus. I truly do regret my inability to buy Prlexus when it was lower. I always stalled and stalled, then when I wanted to make a move the price always moved up. So maybe this one has got away from me yet again (after it suffered the drop recently due to Shariah non-compliance).

This post has been edited by contestchris: Jun 10 2017, 02:57 PM
wayne84
post Jun 12 2017, 09:45 PM

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Sifussssss..any undervalue / laggard stock to watch tomorow and recently? except tenaga... ? can give me sime tipsy ???
dontlosecapital
post Jun 13 2017, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(wayne84 @ Jun 12 2017, 09:45 PM)
Sifussssss..any undervalue / laggard stock to watch tomorow and recently? except tenaga... ? can give me sime tipsy ???
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i am not sifuss,
but i am queuing for pmetal smile.gif
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 13 2017, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(wayne84 @ Jun 12 2017, 09:45 PM)
Sifussssss..any undervalue / laggard stock to watch tomorow and recently? except tenaga... ? can give me sime tipsy ???
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No sifu here. But PohHuat and Insas have broken through their resistance level. Also have a look at YSPSAH.

I am holding all these stocks.

nvk
post Jun 13 2017, 10:27 AM

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What about REIT? Any good REIT that's good to buy now?
Thanks!
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 13 2017, 10:40 AM

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Bad year for REITs. But if die die also must buy, then have a look at PavReit. But I think must hold for another 1-2 years before there will be any movement.

Better option is to buy TENAGA.


Avangelice
post Jun 13 2017, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 13 2017, 10:40 AM)
Bad year for REITs. But if die die also must buy, then have a look at PavReit. But I think must hold for another 1-2 years before there will be any movement.

Better option is to buy TENAGA.
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Tenaga just moved. 14.5. I think I am changing my mind selling it for my proposal and sell AAX instead
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 13 2017, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Jun 13 2017, 10:42 AM)
Tenaga just moved. 14.5. I think I am changing my mind selling it for my proposal and sell AAX instead
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Good choice. To be honest, I think AAX has weak fundamentals and the PE ratio is way too high compared to AirAsia.
donhay
post Jun 13 2017, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 13 2017, 10:27 AM)
No sifu here. But PohHuat and Insas have broken through their resistance level. Also have a look at YSPSAH.

I am holding all these stocks.
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YSPSAH 's TP at RM3.00 biggrin.gif
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 13 2017, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(donhay @ Jun 13 2017, 11:07 AM)
YSPSAH 's TP at RM3.00 biggrin.gif
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Is it? Thanks for the info. I just buy only. 😃
diversity
post Jun 13 2017, 11:49 AM

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Asia Bio good to buy now?
dontlosecapital
post Jun 13 2017, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(diversity @ Jun 13 2017, 11:49 AM)
Asia Bio good to buy now?
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i sold it for breakeven,
when is 0.07,

after you see their 5 years financial report,
i think u got the answer..
dontlosecapital
post Jun 13 2017, 12:05 PM

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currently
i review my share,
5 main share i invest
gadang, construction,
inari, technology
nhfatt, consumer products
titijaya, properties
pmetal, ind-prod

was thinking, diversify my share to all industry,

what industry is trending for following 6 month ?
Avangelice
post Jun 13 2017, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 13 2017, 12:05 PM)
currently
i review my share,
5 main share i invest
gadang, construction,
inari, technology
nhfatt, consumer products
titijaya, properties
pmetal, ind-prod

was thinking, diversify my share to all industry,

what industry is trending for following 6 month ?
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airlines. Warren buffet is buying airline shares
diversity
post Jun 13 2017, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(donhay @ Jun 13 2017, 11:07 AM)
YSPSAH 's TP at RM3.00 biggrin.gif
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 13 2017, 11:26 AM)
Is it? Thanks for the info. I just buy only. 😃
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Just bought as well, thanks for da advice

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