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 Investors Club V10, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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river.sand
post Jun 8 2017, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 7 2017, 10:17 PM)
I know all sifus here stress on fundamental. Me too. But I want to ask do you guys really calculate the intrinsic value of those strong fundamental companies ? All those I learn from US books to calculate intrinsic value is not useful here in Bursa Malaysia? Most counters sifus mentioned here have strong fundamental I agree. But if I calculate the intrinsic value, most of them is overvalued. I expect 10-15% annualized return with my intrinsic value calculation. Am I doing smtg wrong? I'm quite lost.  cry.gif
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You use DCFA? How do you determine the discount factors and predict future cash flow? Maybe you can show us an example.

In any case, even with PEG method, not easy to find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time.
dontlosecapital
post Jun 8 2017, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 7 2017, 10:06 PM)
i check fundamental all passed, and enter at low risk entry with tight stop if things goes wrong.

I enter with 2 options in mind, for this stock i can either trade it or keep it.
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good luck bro,
harvest in future!

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 7 2017, 10:40 PM)
Good research on your part. You found the answer why you should keep NHFatt.

I am also learning. Hopefully we will prosper together. smile.gif
*
still long path way,

btw i got follow harry teoh from fb, harry魔法教室 ,
yesterday he just share on what is portfolio management ?, on
and also share on the terms on HOLDING LONG TERM stock,
some point take note from him, some i agree, and some i disagree..
i am still learning..
he also one of the well-known investor.. got 33k followers..
maybe vanguard u also can do something like this,
i am the 1st one to follow..
haha


QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jun 7 2017, 10:49 PM)
This I agree. The problem is the currency. That's why run to SGX instead of KLSE. tongue.gif
For me, I check fundamental. If it's solid, then I use google finance 5 years to see. Sometimes need to buy high as some prices never come down again. I am more of dividend investor. Trying to generate min 6% dividend from SGX.
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settled 1 by 1 1st...
i master klse 1st, only go for others country..
but i will go for indonesia market... if can..
donhay
post Jun 8 2017, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 7 2017, 08:23 PM)
You are welcome bro. I am happy you are making money. Please keep NHFatt for now. It is not meant for short term trading but long term investment.

I don't have a target price for NHFatt. IMHO, there are a few rules of thumb for long term investment:-

1.  Don't watch the stock price after you bought the stock. Watch what the company is doing.
2.  What is the future earnings or growth prospect of the company?
3.  As long as the fundamentals of the company are OK, you should keep the stock.

I will take some stocks in my portfolio as an eg:-

    Stocks /                        Unrealised Profit

1.  AirAsia                          15.782%
2.  Cocolnd                        20.113%
3.  GKent                          18.338%
4.  Johotin                          18.393%
5.  KESM                            41.591%
6.  MPI                              26.398%
7.  OldTown                        17.546%
8.  Superln                        29.953%

Should I sell the above stocks since I have made some profits? The answer is no since I am doing it for long term investment. I will keep the stocks as long as the fundamentals are intact and I bought it with a margin of safety (i.e. when they were undervalued). If we keep on trading or overhauling our portfolio frequently, the only person who will be rich will be our remisiers.

We need time to let the money tree grow instead of pulling out the roots when the tree is growing.

P/S:  Sorry for this long winded post. I had a few glasses of wine pre-dinner.
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a very nice nice portfolio, bravo!
djhenry91
post Jun 8 2017, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 8 2017, 10:40 AM)
good luck bro,
harvest in future!
still long path way,

btw i got follow harry teoh from fb, harry魔法教室 ,
yesterday he just share on what is portfolio management ?, on
and also share on the terms on HOLDING LONG TERM stock,
some point take note from him, some i agree, and some i disagree..
i am still learning..
he also one of the well-known investor.. got 33k followers..
maybe vanguard u also can do something like this,
i am the 1st one to follow..
haha
settled 1 by 1 1st...
i master klse 1st, only go for others country..
but i will go for indonesia market... if can..
*
ex rhb banker..open class for people pay and attend their class..
he not really is well know investor la
dontlosecapital
post Jun 8 2017, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Jun 8 2017, 10:59 AM)
ex rhb banker..open class for people pay and attend their class..
he not really is well know investor la
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ic,
thanks for the info
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 8 2017, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 8 2017, 10:40 AM)
good luck bro,
harvest in future!
still long path way,

btw i got follow harry teoh from fb, harry魔法教室 ,
yesterday he just share on what is portfolio management ?, on
and also share on the terms on HOLDING LONG TERM stock,
some point take note from him, some i agree, and some i disagree..
i am still learning..
he also one of the well-known investor.. got 33k followers..
maybe vanguard u also can do something like this,

*
I only have a white belt in investing, bro. There are other real sifus in this forum who don't post often like Gark, PinkSpider and YHTan.

I just share info and hope everyone will make money. smile.gif

QUOTE(donhay @ Jun 8 2017, 10:40 AM)
a very nice nice portfolio, bravo!
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Thanks mate. But like they say, "Don't count your money when you are still at the gambling table". What goes up today can easily come down tomorrow. smile.gif

dontlosecapital
post Jun 8 2017, 11:43 AM

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hi,..
i got a question to clarify, please help..

country view berhad, cview
@ 27 oct 2016
second single tier interim dividend of 6 sen per ordinary share of RM 1.0 each
ex date 09 nov 2016
entitlement date 11 nov 2016

i understand on, if is single tier then is tax exemption 25%...
my question is..
6 sen per ordinary share of RM 1.0..

question 1.
if i buy at oct 27 2016, 10000 share x RM 1.48,
i hold until 09 nov, my dividend will be 10000 x 0.06 = RM 600 ?

question 2.
if i buy at 16 july 2012, 10000 share x RM 0.72
i hold until 09 nov, my dividend will be 10000 x 0.06 = RM 600 ?

i do not understand on
" second single tier interim dividend of 6 sen per ordinary share of RM 1.0 each"
the ordinary share RM 1.0 is for what purpose ?

please help.. thanks
dontlosecapital
post Jun 8 2017, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 8 2017, 11:42 AM)
I only have a white belt in investing, bro. There are other real sifus in this forum who don't post often like Gark, PinkSpider and YHTan.

I just share info and hope everyone will make money.  smile.gif
Thanks mate. But like they say, "Don't count your money when you are still at the gambling table". What goes up today can easily come down tomorrow. smile.gif
*
bro,
i get some calculation for CVIEW,
but not sure is correct or not.

total dividend from 2013 to current, 0.76 cents
if i buy at RM 1.13 @ 23 jan 2013, and hold until today
my dividend get me 67.25% net profit gain
if i sell today RM 1.65 i get 46.01% gross profit

if calculate net profit as gross profit, assume

i invest jan 2013, till now is 4 years 5 months,
total gross profit i got is 113.26%...

this is the power of dividend stock!
am i right ?

doesn't matter about the stock price, from 1.13 to 3 and drop to 1.65 now... due to sucks bad financial quarter...
as long as the company is doing profit growth, and generate dividend,
is still best to keep right ?
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 8 2017, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 8 2017, 12:48 PM)
bro,
i get some calculation for CVIEW,
but not sure is correct or not.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

doesn't matter about the stock price, from 1.13 to 3 and drop to 1.65 now... due to sucks bad financial quarter...
as long as the company is doing profit growth, and generate dividend,
is still best to keep right ?
*
Bro, I did a quick check. CVIEW is selling at a undervalue. It is a small company and the fundamentals are OK but not outstanding.

I don't see any reason to sell unless you found another stock which can grow faster than CVIEW.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jun 8 2017, 02:04 PM
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 8 2017, 03:21 PM

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I bought a new counter today, YSPSAH. It looks OK on paper. Hope for the best.
dontlosecapital
post Jun 8 2017, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 8 2017, 02:04 PM)
Bro, I did a quick check. CVIEW is selling at a undervalue. It is a small company and the fundamentals are OK but not outstanding.

I don't see any reason to sell unless you found another stock which can grow faster than CVIEW.
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bro, i just assumed that time if i buy,
now the value interest gain that i have,
if i hold for 4 years and 5 month smile.gif
so just want to check, see whether my calculation is correct or not smile.gif
no money to buy so many counter....

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 8 2017, 03:21 PM)
I bought a new counter today, YSPSAH. It looks OK on paper. Hope for the best.
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yo, all the best,
next dividend yield got 3.2% not bad..~~
i still analyzing ...
SUSlowya
post Jun 8 2017, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 8 2017, 03:21 PM)
I bought a new counter today, YSPSAH. It looks OK on paper. Hope for the best.
*
looks good, but the timing could be better (earlier), is it a breakout entry strategy?
dontlosecapital
post Jun 8 2017, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 8 2017, 03:21 PM)
I bought a new counter today, YSPSAH. It looks OK on paper. Hope for the best.
*
bro,
can i know your top price for this ?
affin hwang capital target price is 2.76
Nemozai
post Jun 8 2017, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jun 8 2017, 10:08 AM)
You use DCFA? How do you determine the discount factors and predict future cash flow? Maybe you can show us an example.

In any case, even with PEG method, not easy to find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time.
*
I use EPS and dividend payout based on past 10 years to get total estimated return. Then use this formula to get a, R=ar^(n-1). And then discount it by 25% to get fair value. Then I use 2nd fair value which I get by discounting 33% from 52weeks highest and lowest's difference. Only when my stock price fall below both fair value I will buy it.

Yes. Exactly. This is my point, if we can't find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time, what should I do ? Die die also invest by just looking at fundamental? Or I wait? But then I read a quote which state that time in the market is more important than timing the market. Sifus can advise me what to do? notworthy.gif

Or is my method wrong? Can sifus tell me was there a time in history where we could find such good and undervalued stock in Bursa Malaysia? Can point it out so that I can do some research on that period so that I know I will not be waiting for nothing? This only happen when this thread suddenly become quiet? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Jun 8 2017, 08:36 PM
river.sand
post Jun 8 2017, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Jun 8 2017, 08:33 PM)
I use EPS and dividend payout based on past 10 years to get total estimated return. Then use this formula to get a, R=ar^(n-1). And then discount it by 25% to get fair value. Then I use 2nd fair value which I get by discounting 33% from 52weeks highest and lowest's difference. Only when my stock price fall below both fair value I will buy it.

Yes. Exactly. This is my point, if we can't find undervalued stocks in Bursa at this time, what should I do ? Die die also invest by just looking at fundamental? Or I wait? But then I read a quote which state that time in the market is more important than timing the market. Sifus can advise me what to do?  notworthy.gif

Or is my method wrong? Can sifus tell me was there a time in history where we could find such good and undervalued stock in Bursa Malaysia? Can point it out so that I can do some research on that period so that I know I will not be waiting for nothing? This only happen when this thread suddenly become quiet?  hmm.gif
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May I know what are the R and r in first formula?
I assume the 25% is margin of safety. In Malaysian market, you can hardly get anything with 25% MoS.

Recall that Warren Buffett said:
It's far better to buy a wonderful company at fair price, than a fair company at wonderful price.

So for wonderful companies, you may want to use a smaller MoS.

Other things we can do:
- search for undiscovered gems (not easy though)
- invest in overseas' market

If you are not comfortable investing in foreign stocks directly, try unit trust.
Vanguard 2015
post Jun 9 2017, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 8 2017, 07:44 PM)
looks good, but the timing could be better (earlier), is it a breakout entry strategy?
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No, I didn't use a breakout entry strategy. I just looked at the fundamentals of the company. Sheer coincidence that I bought the share after it broke the resistance of 2.5 thus giving a higher probability of a successful breakout.

QUOTE(dontlosecapital @ Jun 8 2017, 07:45 PM)
bro,
can i know your top price for this ?
affin hwang capital target price is 2.76
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I don't have a TP for YSPSAH. But I think Affin's TP is too low.

The valuation for YSPSAH is the highest among all its peers in the same industry.
SUSlowya
post Jun 9 2017, 12:11 PM

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Took profit on Samchem, switch to RCECAP
dontlosecapital
post Jun 9 2017, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Jun 9 2017, 10:37 AM)
No, I didn't use a breakout entry strategy. I just looked at the fundamentals of the company. Sheer coincidence that I bought the share after it broke the resistance of 2.5 thus giving a higher probability of a successful breakout.
I don't have a TP for YSPSAH. But I think Affin's TP is too low.

The valuation for YSPSAH is the highest among all its peers in the same industry.
*
okay, thanks bro
Coup De Grace
post Jun 9 2017, 02:51 PM

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Ahead of Hari Raya, anyone here buying consumers/garments stocks like Padini and Magni?
dontlosecapital
post Jun 9 2017, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(Coup De Grace @ Jun 9 2017, 02:51 PM)
Ahead of Hari Raya, anyone here buying consumers/garments stocks like Padini and Magni?
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padini in watchlist,
no buy yet...

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