This is a post to discuss the mathematics behind Sports Toto 4D as well as other 4D games and lotteries. The honourable advocado has a post at https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4231708 which explained in detail the games provided by Sports Toto with the rules and payouts.

This post is to shed light on the odds, risks and strategy of these games, for better understanding to punters.

I will try to explain the mathematics, hopefully in simple English. I'm by no means a mathematician, so if my mathematics are wrong, please point it out. Constructive criticism will be accepted, useless comments ignored.

First things first.

1. It is assumed that the numbers being picked are random and not pseudo random.
2. I do not condone nor condemn gambling. This is purely from a mathematics perspective and to give punters a well-informed decision to improve their strategy and money management.

I'll start with the normal 4D games.

1. Rules and payout/prizes please refer to https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/4231708

2. There are 10000 possible combinations, therefore the odds to hit straight up is 1 in 10000 or 0.0001 or 0.01%. But there are numerous prize levels and payouts based on the prizes, therefore it's not 0.01% to win something (with these odds, no one would be playing).

3. Let's go with the calculation. We normalise the bets to RM1, which is the smallest denominator we can play (and for easier calculation).

4. We look at expected return for each RM1 bet, then when we compare what we expect to get, we'll know which strategy to go for (or rather which strategy has more value.



5. If you buy the BIG bet, your odds to win something, anything is 0.23% (cell E8). But because there are varying prizes, your expected return is -RM0.36. In layman terms, every time you bet RM1, you expect to lose RM0.36 to TOTO. This is also the profit that TOTO makes per bet (before expenses, taxes etc).

6. For SMALL bet, the odds are smaller to win something, which is 0.03%, and expected return is about the same -RM0.35

7. For better value for money, the SMALL bet is the choice, but you will see less chances to win something, but when you win, you win more. The RM0.01 difference is for TOTO to offset the higher cost of more people claiming prizes for the BIG bet.

Calculation (Google Sheets)

Next we move on the iPerm bets, where things get much more interesting.



1. The expected value is -RM0.28 for the BIG bet. Why the big discrepancy? This is because of the Starter and Consolation payouts. TOTO does not want to bother with cent payouts, therefore they pay RM8 and RM3 for those prizes instead of RM7.50 and RM2.50, which is RM180/24 and RM60/24 respectively.

2. For SMALL bets, there are no differences.

Strategy: Buy iPerm 24 BIG bet to maximise your value. You will see later that other iPerm bets will not match the iPerm 24 BIG bet.

Here are the rest of the iPerm bets.

iPerm 12



iPerm 6



iPerm 4



TLDR: Buy iPerm 24 BIG.

I'll analyse the Jackpot games when I have time.

This post has been edited by kelvinlym: Apr 6 2017, 01:47 PM

Don't bluff la

They deducted 80RM from prize 200RM

40% tu

I like where this is going. Parking dulu.

Just tell what number will win.

odds are 1 thing
you will never kena 1 is another thing because everything is arranged

This Saturday apa number for 1st Prize?

all betting is losing $$$ , don't bet

As long don't buy is 0% chance to win

Huat ah

actually dont need to calculate expected return, just calculate total payout then can know buying small is better value in long term. many layman doesn't understand what is expected value.

and i am sure the toto number generator is completely random, not pseudo random, if pseudo random then people will make money out of it already.

Go buy gaming company shares better than betting.

just tell me which no to win.. tldr

Parking

How abt Da Ma CAI?

Yeah, but iPerm 24 BIG has the best value. Small does not differ much from BIG bets.

I agree with the random generator comment. But some people still try to look for patterns and some swear by it.

There is so such as thing as true random. If you can figure out how the the number generator generate numbers, you too can be rich.

Gambler fallacy at work.

*puts tissue paper on table*

But, Daddi no Kasi. How?

Great discovery...

So Iperm 24 BIG is basically just invest RM24 for any number kah?

but i-Perm 24 you only get approx 1/24 payout compared to no Perm.

means you have to bet x24 more to get similar payouts.

no. i-perm is decided if you go for Perm, the digits you selected.

eg

AAAB = perm 4 (coz only 4 combinations)

AABB = perm 6

ABCC = perm 12

ABCD = perm 24

so if you select all different digit for your number, your perm is 24. payout is around 1/24 vs no perm.

But iPerm you can bet min RM1, isn't it? Based on your post.

Cos the payout for starter and consolation is RM8 and RM3 for RM1 bet. It is supposed to be RM7.50 and RM2.50, if divided by 24.

Which means BJTOTO give RM0.50 more prize money, which means it is better value. Meaning RM8*24 = RM192 and not RM180.

Am I wrong, here? Please correct me on the iPerm min bet as I derived the info from your post.

HOLLY SHIT!!!!


I dont understand any of this but thanks.

yea agree no such thing as true random. but the cycle for the number to repeat itself is way beyond human life cycle.

and if one have the ability the figure out the number generator function, he must be the one having IQ over 200.

even given the number generator itself, one might not necessary know the seed to the generator.

The calculation purely based on the pure probability number combination.
But in real world every punter who come across vehicle accident, 1st instint is lookout for the vehicle registration number.
Instead of calling help, call underground number collector, pau all big and small.

summary please?

so buy iperm 24??

better value maybe, but you still have to bet rm24 for perm24. the difference is negligible though, you need to really bet big amount to make real difference.

also, really depend what number you are buying. because perm is tied to ur selected Digits.





i don't know average how much people bet on their numbers. i'm guessing rm24 is considered alot.

But if you buy small, your chance is only 1st, 2nd & 3rd prize.

This post has been edited by advocado: Apr 6 2017, 02:23 PM

I'm not saying will win. I'm saying if you're gonna buy, better to buy with iPerm24 due to slightly higher payouts. Meaning you get better value for money.

Like saying you want to buy cigarettes. 7- 11 sell RM15, kkmart sell RM14.50. Since you're going to smoke anyway, better smoke the cheaper cigarettes.

How about games like Power/Supreme/Grand Toto?

what are the perks buying from underground vs legit?

If still have to bet RM24, why the payout shows RM8 and RM3?

i mean you have to bet rm24 if you want to get the same payout as no perm. but you get slightly more as you said with perm.

you can win with rm1, but payout will be, rm8 & rm3 lo. worth the hassle going to toto to buy?

Sat 4D 1st prize is 2374

if win ayem lari bogel and guling2 in suria kk

I'll analyze this weekend if I have time.

From gambler's perspective maybe not worth it. But mathematically speaking better value.

value yes, but you ignored the potential return of 1 big bet on 1 number vs 1 small bet on 24 perms, sometimes 1 big bet on 1 number can recoup all your losses and generate profit, but it'd be very difficult to do so with small bets on many numbers.

like casino, if you bet big, you have higher chance of winning by luck. but if you bet small, odds are you can't win the house even though you win rate is higher.

i think those Grand, Supreme, Power, is reserved for unique people that required some special services, because the rate is so low, it means, i'm not saying it is, but provides a good opportunity to rig a number to certain client.

for 4D, it's high chance some random guy will also hit the jackpot.

but 6/XX, chances are dunno how many billion in 1.

Yes I agree. If value is not a factor and I'm only going big or go bust, I'll definitely buy 1 number and bet my firstborn.

More like tens of million to one. Billion to one nobody will play because payouts will be very rare.

some people bet every draw, maybe only after 30-40 years hit something really big.

if you bet only rm1, difficult, unless you bet on jackpot, but even jackpot, if you bet system 20, even win jackpot, also not much.

1701

Of course. You can't have both ways. Lower probability, higher payouts, and vice versa.

We use expected return/value to make comparisons between probability and payouts to find what is the best value for money.

Like why some prefer to play slots while others play baccarat in casino.

Slots have lower probability but can one shot win big, whereas table games higher probability but hard to win big with small bet.

That's why number games appeal to the public more. The majority of people prefer to risk a small amount for the miniscule probability to win big.
However, in the end only the casino or house wins, due to the law of large numbers.

In short, more people prefer to have 1% chance to win RM100, than 50% chance to win RM2.

i think most people play slots, because they don't know how to play other games.

just my opinion though.

Double post

This post has been edited by kelvinlym: Apr 6 2017, 02:55 PM

Yes, simplicity is also a factor. Like why there are no craps tables in most casinos any more.

Games must balance simplicity, fun, reward and risk. It's an art by itself.

5548

Power Toto = 1 in 28,989,675

Supreme Toto = 1 in 40,475,358

Grand Toto = 1 in 67,945,521

That's why education system problem, suggest one education system only..... etc etc

all fix by BN & UMNO

Oh.. thanks... Belanja you minum if kena. LOL

This fella pro
He knows the famous number

Less likely First to Third btw

Name pls

BERUSAHA SUNGGUH!

The system will check which numbers and how much bought.

Then generate a different number.

It will still payout to winner or else nobody will bet. Like a gambling machine?

if expected value all negative why play at all lol only play positive expected value games.

btw aren't u in Germany? lots of lottery games there

cool story brah

Nearlee

I play system 6. All 3 companies.

What are my actual odds of winning?

ALL lottery games are negative value. If positive then there will not be any of these games on offer. People will find out and exploit it.

Take blackjack for example, remember the MIT guys who counted cards. They were working with about 1 or 2% positive value. But they could identify when it's positive, so they bet big when value is positive.

In short, positive value games in lottery are non existent.

That's the reason I rarely play these kinda games. Only once in awhile like the Eurojackpot when the pot goes up to max and trickles down to the lower levels.

hmmmm the foce of weed is strong with TS - weed everyday smoke he must

saved

interesting

*side story not related -

i remember a few years ago during cheltenham festival there was a placepot available to bet on all horses to win on that day. no one won and the prize money just keep roll over until next day, at some point the pot went up to millions and i figured out i can just bet on all combinations and guarantee a win. However i realise do not have enough money to place on all combination because even at 1 pound per line i would need 7 grand + to cover all...

in the end i realise my calculation was wrong because there was multiple winners and the pot was split to many people so its still not + EV

interest experience for those interesting in betting tho

This post has been edited by GnomeMage: Apr 6 2017, 05:01 PM

just dun play
easy peasy

Purple Haze is my favorite.

Yeah, that's the problem with all games. In the end the house always wins.

the irresistable payout from the black market... enjoy

Although TS' computation shows that punters are getting better chance by betting on BIG iPerm, but punters will tend to win less if using this strategy

e.g. if you are going to bet RM1 BIG on number 1234, instead of betting straight, you top up RM23 to go for BIG iPerm 1234, if 1234 comes out on

first : payout 2520 - 23 = 2497 vs. 2500 which is lesser winning by 3
second : payout 1008 - 23 = 985 vs. 1000 which is lesser winning by 15
third : payout 504 - 23 = 481 vs. 500 which is lesser winning by 19
special : payout 192 - 23 = 169 vs. 180 which is lesser winning by 11
consolation : payout 72 - 23 = 49 vs. 60 which is lesser winning by 11

Betting can yield profit; Gambling cannot.

2374
DaMaCai Consolation

lol
next is when?

predict 1631

Ain't Sat and 1st prize.

How and where?

KHAK

eh but Sat
Sports Toto 4D
1sr prize 2473

so close

next prediction 1631 or 1361

Why ppl buy black number?

1. Convenient over phone, SMS, runner, no need long queue
2. Higher payout
3. Result not rigged because they have no control

So got win?

1631 the number so odd
Too odd .. x mau

tada main mia

predict no ony

Sat 2473 1st prize
Sun 2374 consol.

pm lobang pls

but also 0% chance to lose

Thanks for the feedback.

The expected return metric does not mean a better chance. It means that for every RM1 bet you make, you are expected to lose RM0.28, instead of the other systems where you are expected to lose more.

Also, your calculation is flawed because you are comparing a RM1 bet on 1 number 1234 with RM24 on iPerm.

means no hope in life also.
got buy is buy chance

One question, for the supreme toto 6/58, can i buy a set of number straight for one year? or need to buy everytime for every draw.

all online

nearlee today finally huat
damacai 1st 1 ticket & consolation, toto consolation

wohooo

le fu la kena 1st

Nearlee

long time draught finally open...fuuuu..finally...

So the Grand, Supreme and Power numbers are random picked/generated by machine/system? Or the staff will pick the numbers randomly?