Bull flag pattern for KL Finance Index?
BWC
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 Nov 28 2020, 07:52 PM
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#1
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2,282 posts Joined: Sep 2019 
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Dec 8 2020, 08:34 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(Pohziliang96 @ Dec 8 2020, 03:20 PM) How to trade stocks? In other word, goreng Dont need to goreng to trade stocks, buy stocks with strong uptrend momentum and hold until the momentum gone only.  Try recovery and plantation counters. |
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Dec 8 2020, 10:53 PM
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#3
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QUOTE(Pohziliang96 @ Dec 8 2020, 08:39 PM) How about tech stocks? Some of them are revealing good QR results Can also la, whichever that you think the upward momentum is intact, hentam and pray onlyMomentum? It will test about timing lo I suggested 1. recovery - because of the recovery theme 2. plantation - because of the rising CPO price To me, most of the techs to me are a bit too pricy though QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 8 2020, 09:05 PM) Tq. Feel free to continue la... Boon, not happy I slightly off topic in this thread is it seriously...   Pohziliang96 liked this post
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Dec 9 2020, 09:10 AM
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#4
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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Dec 9 2020, 12:39 AM) I don't really trust recovery theme especial steel and hospitality counter which are still making loss There are some steel counters out there making profits thoughI rather buy current fundemental intact company. You can trade based on fundemental. Nothing wrong with that... Although sometimes it will be very slow |
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Feb 2 2021, 11:19 AM
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#5
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 2 2021, 10:28 AM) The one big misconception is 'ASP normalizing' .... cos I feel they think the ASP will fall straight back to pre Covid... Yeah I agree, ASP wont drop a mere 20%, but I am slightly more optimistic, I think at least 10-20% higher than pre-covid. I believe they do not realise that .. a simple decline of a mere 20% in ASP .... would bring havoc to earnings. I also think that the FY2023 numbers might not have included a full ASP normalization. Once we have the FY2024 numbers, we will know - if NP drops, means ASP will continue to decline further post 2023, |
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Feb 2 2021, 11:49 AM
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#6
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 2 2021, 11:37 AM) The danger for you is that you might look for value once the glove stocks really fall...... Demand CAGR is still there, and my FA entry is even lower than JP morgan's price, I think if I can get it at my FA entry, it is quite safe already.mega value trap. Do give it a real gooooooooooooooooooood thought.  But IF ASP really drops to pre-covid level post 2023, I think even my FA entry is not an undervalued entry, but a fairly valued entry This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Feb 2 2021, 11:51 AM |
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Feb 2 2021, 12:12 PM
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#7
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 2 2021, 11:55 AM) Okay. If you insist. I say no more. Thanks for the advice though, if it can drop until pre-covid price, I really see no harm jumping in for long term. |
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Feb 2 2021, 01:27 PM
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#8
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Feb 2 2021, 12:26 PM) two things... I agree, the price war amongst the glove makers, has a very high chance to revert the ASP back to pre-covid if not lower. The earnings growth prospect will only come from the CAGR demand, no longer from ASP hike, which definitely will be extremely slow, compared to covid explosive growth.1. Part of your value is anchored to current prices.... 2. Market will still be forward looking. For 1. Current windfall is due to these astronomical Selling Prices. Once it falls, there's a great chance that we will never see such extreme ASP again....... unless of course, a brand new pandemic happen again........ In the meantime, when the ASP normalize .... what will we see? Price war amongst glove makers. Yup, the big one, sure they can and they will survive. But how long will the price war last? A year? 2 years? 5 years? So in a price war, do you see earnings increasing or declining?  Meanwhile... not all customers will be forgiving. They will remember what happened these few months. They will remember how the current glove makers, demanded deposits for order, constant price increment. Yup, in short, how many customers will remain loyal ? Will they switch to newer suppliers? and yea... check out the glove makers pre covid stock performances. For 2. Once it fall the ASP, what's there for the market to look forward to? Without the prospect of earnings growth, how to seduce buyers? BUT, if fear strikes until it really drops to pre-covid price or even lower, I really dont see any harm buying based on the currently projected data available today. But definitely will not discount the possibility you mentioned above. Hence, the FA entry should be adjusted even lower for more safety margin. This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Feb 2 2021, 01:28 PM |
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