Want to Batu Api me issit?

I wish

isn't that it?

and the dividends.... wasn't it as expected?


in the stock market, try not to make an opportunity out of everything .......

many a times, it's just best not doing anything.

What do you think of D&O's chart? Its uptrend was steep & had a minor correction recently. Do you think it has correlation to Tesla due to automotive LED exposure?

Err.... here have a look....

The run up since last March...



and the following charts in different time phases shows what happened before March and since then ...









it started moving down since 2nd March 2021... ( here's what you should do... look at the date and compare with other tech stocks. Is the down movement all about D&O or is it 'sector' related?)





.... and yeah.... in a relaxation mode... not thinking much...
so I am not give any opinion.....

I suppose it's sector related? The techs move pretty closely to Nasdaq's movements.

I wonder if they will chase this into another Supermax like last year

Just curious, do you take macro factors like USA markets or interest rate in your trading? Or pure chart?

Edit: Btw, Boon kor, I should've listened to you when you said "the scientists" have begun forecasting next year. Today, while most "scientists" reduced TPs, some "scientists" reduced their magic numbers so drastically. If only I had cutloss on gloves then...

Anyway, thanks coz now I read more critically at those "scientist repot".

This post has been edited by howyoulikethat: Mar 10 2021, 03:09 PM

Yes, I do believe it's categorised as a tech stock.

Tg yesterday report is its 2021 Q2 already. So technically, research houses cannot make anymore reference to 2021 numbers already and any TP will be based on FY 22 numbers. But if you read the below screenshot ....



yeah, as mentioned many, many times b4, they still have some 'leeway' cos their numbers is based on CY22 and not FY22. Which means, technically, the profit numbers is slightly higher.

and the HK listing comes so big in focus.

See the cash balance in TG latest report? 2.35 Billion ringgit. They have the money what? Why still need the HK listing? What a BS.

For me, as an outsider, I see this more as an ego listing for the boss.

end result? Massive dilution in earnings! (and those jokers simply simply say HK listing is good) The diluted TP from Kenanga is only 5.80.

And the other thing...

The boss die die do share buyback and also own self buy and use Tropicana money to buy TG shares.
Now see the Balance Sheer again.
The money in the 'money market fund' or listed as 'investment securities'. That's a whopping 2.1 Billion there.
Now if I include this amount and the fact the boss went amok buying back TG shares, I had been left wondering how come, he die die no touch this money in the money market fund.
See, if i am a shareholder of the fund, the biggest concern is... what the hell money market fund is this? TG shares was literally falling off the cliff but the boss did not touch this money at all. Why? Is the money used as collateral? or what?

and this money market fund is worth 2.1 Billion mah.... a lot of money there... but the boss rather choose the HK listing and let everyone suffer the massive dilutions in eps caused by the HK listing. Now if I am a shareholder, I probably would not be happy.

so what will the company really do with the HK listing money?

would because TG will have more money after the listing, will TG be even more aggressive buying back their shares?
now that's the scary thought when one factor in how they executed their buybacks and also the current performance of their share buybacks.


post #3892 ... the table of the ASP calculation is useful.....

btw keep this link.....

and still .... no matter what .... take really all these reports with a large dose of salt....

myself hardly read anymore....

Simulation
------------

As per postings #4117, I am tracking the idea of buying TG for its dividends...

1. Purchase of 1000 shares on Dec 2020 at a price of 6.70.
Dividend collected so far = 16.5 sen

2. At 5.30, as per posting #4120 , purchased another 1,000 shares

Purchase of 1000 shares on Feb 2021 at a price of 5.30.

3. Total shares = 2,000. Cost = 12.00. Average price = 6.00
Dividend collect so far 16.5 sen.


Upcoming dividend = 25 sen.

squarepilot ...if anytime you think I should top up shares in this simulation, pls let know.

Trading on gloves has already ended.

Now is value investing.

Scientist says ASP will decrease. Sudah takde catalyst to goreng anymore in the coming month.
However gloves will show its actual value when their financial report beats anal yst estimation.
For me... I will monitor kossan and harta. I think this 2 will beat estimation.

Speculating...

you just contradicted yourself here and there.........

and it's now value investing?
how come I never thought about it....



let me say again....
these one/two quarters... everyone knows the profits will be strong....
it's next year that matters....

(p/s this was the exact thing that was mentioned since last Sep la)

oh btw.... the 3.50.
got factor in the 18% dilution for TG for the HK listing or not?

and remember TG is the market leader...
when it dies .... kuchi rats like kossan... no 1 cares la....

Contradicting as in posting in a trading forum ah?

No la. The reason I bought the 3 big gloves is for long term, I even bought way before the pandemic. Maybe that's why I couldn't even care less about the movement. My mind was thinking undervalued, undervalued and undervalued

Was not for trading at the first place.

For orna and yinson. Yes it was for trading. That's why once the chart is not nice, straight chop.

Sentiment wise, yes when leader dies, all its brother follows. But isn't all already half dead?
I think we can agree to disagree with kossan and harta with the earnings. My own calculation shows that kossan and harta will outperform topglove. Whether the market accept the fact or not, I'm just happy to collect the dividends issued by them

Many more other counter to tikam mah. What theme next?

value investing ah?


okay la........ I leave you be.....





btw ...... if the glove stocks really collapse... is there a price you think you will admit you are wrong and potong?

Yes. If I bought during the pandemic.... My cut loss for top glove, harta and kossan will be rm6.50, rm10, rm5 respectively

but if you had bought b4 the pandemic? are you saying that there will be no potong price at all?

Errr... For this case... Only if it falls below my buying price
Because healthcare is evergreen business
But that's my personal opinion

For other sectors, then it's a yes

So you are willing to risk all your 'paper profits'?


and you do know paper profits is real? it's real money and it IS YOURS.





Yes, I agree healthcare business is evergreen...
but then...
if I were you...
I would evaluate the current situation.

Current insane profit for the glove makers...
this is their moment in the spotlight...
season in the sun ....

which only happened just because Covid 19 became a worldwide pandemic....


what if Covid 19 ends?
yes, the demand of the gloves will still be there....
but the only difference is the glove makers will not be able to sell at such insane prices anymore....

they won't see customers prepaying their goods anymore...

and then.... you have the capex issue...
TG capex plan is 10 billion over the next 5 years...

Harta announced.... err.... 7 billion... i just saw the news clip popped up (didn't read inside.. )

err... dunno about the others...

and then... yea... all the wanna be glove makers (most will die la in the long run but before they die... they would have caused some serious damages to pricing) ....

yup... price war will happen (yup, the scenario after sars, was price wars due to insane capex by everyone in the industry) .... and prices slumped....



.... blah... blah... blah......


and at end of the day ..... there's a good chance that profits will slump to pre Covid years...

TG now going at around 10 billion profit.
Pre Covid, profits before covid was only 370 million.....

370 million and 10 billion profit heaven and earth...
68 sen and 5.30 share price also heaven and earth...

how?

willing to forgo all your hard earned profit?
remember those profits that you had not taken...
that's real money ...
it IS YOURS already....

think about it...

should you risk it...
just because of the value investing theory?


weigh out the risks....

be the BOSS of your own money dude.



and ya... don't potong because this here is making so much noise at you to potong.....

This post has been edited by Boon3: Mar 11 2021, 01:29 PM

Ah Boon..

Anjoo, Lionind, Masteel, PA... Can catch?

Errr. in deep waters already