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Suicidal Guy
post Aug 12 2017, 03:36 PM

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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Aug 11 2017, 04:22 PM)
its true, so now i aim chun chun then shoot it!  biggrin.gif
very subjective, now almost all the big drops are recovering, especially in my watchlist, hengyuan and inari.

rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
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rclxub.gif rclxub.gif

I think this is most likely a small bear which is good for the market in longer term.. but I may be wrong cos I'm noob.. stocks which were bought lately are almost back to my entry price and some are in losses..

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 11 2017, 04:43 PM)
Depends la.

If your stock future is very bright and your buy in was very good.... then hold la
But if stock lousy or you simply enter..... err....
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I'm currently holding Petronm, hengyuan, astino, mikromb, Gkent, hevea, luxchem, superlon, padini and comfort.

I'm most uncomfortable holding astino cos it's now in 15% paper loss.

Others like petronm, hengyuan and Gkent are close to my entry price.

These stocks can hold for long term or not ah?



Suicidal Guy
post Aug 16 2017, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Aug 12 2017, 04:49 PM)
Now i get what u mean haha.. true true. Makes sense.
Imo u hold too many stocks liao brother. When u ask the question of these stocks can hold long term or not ah means u sudah suicide liao ma.
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IMO diversify is good for noob like me la.. at least for now.. at least my returns will be moderate.. if I keep a concentrated portfolio, I might end up with high returns if I'm lucky.. if I'm not, I might even lose my pants.. I would keep a more concentrated portfolio only when I master the art of trading..
Suicidal Guy
post Aug 22 2017, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 16 2017, 05:41 PM)
This always 'sound' logical but ... I am telling you this ain't so.

Diversifying will never make it safer. When shit happens, like a crash, they will all die... well ... some of the better ones... they just die less or recover faster.

And then ... when carries more different stocks... the tendency is that sooner and not later, they will most likely to carry the big G - the goreng stocks... and because of the noob factor...the cutting loss is an art they could never master... and in most failure cases....all it takes is ONE NASTY BAD GORENG STOCK that goes badly wrong . And when this happens....tbe portfolio will turn in huge mega losses.

And I will say this.... it's never how many stocks you carry... most important is you carry the right one.

And when you carry less different stocks...you force yourself to be damn bloody correct....this is something which I have seen many with multi stocks in their portfolio will fail to do. Most of the time...they carry more just cos of the theory... they carry stocks to fullfil their die hard gambling blood.. they carry more cos they think one bad stock selection is ok. Cos they think the other stocks can take care of one or two lousy picks...

And so on and so on.....

Ps this issue is subjective. It's always ok for you to disagree.

All you need to do is send Gark to kowtim me.

laugh.gif
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Yup.. I understand what you are trying to tell me.. I am still not disciplined enough to cut loss although I know that is the right thing to do.. icon_question.gif So, until I manage to master cutting losses and improve on stock picks (avoid goreng stocks), I think it is better for me to avoid keeping a concentrated stock to avoid a big draw down in the event that I'm losing on a trade and can't seem to cut loss early..


Suicidal Guy
post Aug 22 2017, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 22 2017, 02:32 PM)
Some stocks... with ... err... fundamentals... when its earnings collapse .... could also see mega mega drop in stock prices. Example? Oil stocks few years back.
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Oh yes.. That is a good reminder and example to learn from.. notworthy.gif


Suicidal Guy
post Sep 15 2017, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Aug 22 2017, 10:07 AM)
Paper price is going up, so you have contango, raw materials bought cheaper earlier, now can sell for higher price

High demand for box due to more online selling.. rclxms.gif

Paper and box shortage in China, due to above.. blame alibaba ... rolleyes.gif

Link 1

Link 2

How long this rally will last, no one knows, but china paper producers is already ramping up production

Orna buys paper as a raw material and is 60% of cost, so if the paper price downtrend, they can be caught in reverse situation.

Jump from RM 1 to RM 1.4X is scary..  sweat.gif

Cousins are Muda and boxpak (But Orna have better fundamentals)

paper industry is sleepy.. no analyst..  brows.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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gark paper price has gone further up since you first mentioned it.. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by Suicidal Guy: Sep 15 2017, 08:52 PM
Suicidal Guy
post Oct 4 2017, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 4 2017, 09:34 AM)
laugh.gif ... So I looked at the inventory numbers the last couple quarters.

Q4 16. Inventory was at 37 mil
Q1 17. Inventory was at 40 mil
Q2 17. Inventory was at 45 mil

I believe that it's not conclusive as you know Inventory could be quite broad based. Right? (more so since I know nuts about this industry). In this case, is it inventory of raw materials or inventory of what? Assuming for the better, could it mean that that the management stocked more as the raw materials prices went higher?

( tolong ajar sikit tongue.gif )
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I found out from the AR that it has been having a high percentage of raw materials + consumables for the past 4 years at around 80-85% of total inventory. As compared with PPHB and MUDA, both have raw material level at only around 40% of total inventory.

What does the higher percentage of raw material vs work in progress and finished goods imply?

Oh btw, the increase in inventory value might be due to old inventory being replaced by new inventory which is bought at higher price?


QUOTE(gark @ Oct 4 2017, 10:59 AM)
I just checked, most paper mills in malaysia import raw materials (pulp) or wastepaper.. domestic supply not enough.

Might want stay sideline a bit..  sweat.gif
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China imposed import ban on waste paper, that would make price of waste paper in China to rise due to insufficient supply. But on the international front, there would be extra supply and the price of waste would have to go down. For Muda, which uses waste paper as raw material, wouldn't it benefit them?


Suicidal Guy
post Dec 21 2017, 03:25 PM

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Am I the only one here that is fully invested?
Suicidal Guy
post Dec 22 2017, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Dec 22 2017, 10:10 AM)
Frontken is not a penny stock brows.gif

Market cap is reaching MYR 500 mil

How come so many different investment/trading thread? this is the 3rd one already. no?

From what i see, this one is more like a 'investment' thread compared to others, I do notice people tends to hold stocks longer here compared to other thread
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Apprently, traders hold stocks longer than investors over here.. laugh.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 4 2018, 07:38 PM

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Buy SKPRES at 2.16...
Cut loss at 2.10...
Paper trade only la...
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 4 2018, 08:51 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 4 2018, 08:22 PM)
laugh.gif

Sure bo?
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Someone don't allow to play with real money ma... tongue.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 4 2018, 11:55 PM

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BTW, why not look at it's brother, Hibiscus Petroleum?

Dnex owns 30% of Ping Petroleum which in turn owns 50% of Anasuria Cluster, making Dnex effectively own 15% of it.

Hibiscus owns 50% of Anasuria Cluster. Its revenue is solely from this asset while Dnex's revenue is a mixture of other businesses. Increasing crude oil price will have more effect on Hibiscus' revenue and net profit.

Hibiscus is also acquiring North Sabah PSC asset which leaves it more room for growth.
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 5 2018, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 5 2018, 08:57 AM)
so if this is not real...
tell me...
your gameplay.

For example... how much profits u are aiming for in this trade?
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Boss.. The strategy here will be to stay in the trade. Get out if the trend is broken. No profit target.

This post has been edited by Suicidal Guy: Jan 5 2018, 10:14 AM
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 5 2018, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 5 2018, 11:20 AM)
Are you sure this is you best way to trade meh? Or you just testing testing?

Trends can always be broken.
Sometimes abruptly too...
And if you jumps into a rather matured trend, there might not be much upside to make your trade successful/meaningful....and sometimes the risk/reward is not even worthwhile....

I always try to ask this myself...
Am I making this trade just for the sake of trading?
Or am I seeing a sure big fat win if I make the trade?
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Just testing testing only boss..

My reasoning is that is has been growing at a rate of around 50% for the past few years. Currently at PE 20++, it is still at a reasonable price and most likely there is more upside to come. Of course, this would be on the back that the growth continues.

QUOTE(danielcmugen @ Jan 5 2018, 01:21 PM)
Sometimes my strategy is that too. But if gap down very pain to sell.
[attachmentid=9484016]
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I would say IQ Group's earning is not stable. It only showed two consecutive quarters of good earnings and then came a bad quarter. Fundamentally, it has not proven itself yet.
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 5 2018, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 5 2018, 04:01 PM)
Sure just testing bo?  tongue.gif

Anyway, I have stated my doubts on SKP's growth.
As such, in my opinion, the risk factor is significantly much higher chasing its continued growth. If you think it got much legs left, go ahead...
And please, as I said before, the dangers in chasing high growth stocks. Once it corrects, ie the growth fails to meet the market high standard of expectation... such stocks can really collapse. Did you not the Sep market? Did you not notice how drastic t they corrected?
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laugh.gif

Really just paper trade only boss..

I see what you mean.. a good example is Superlon.. There is a reason ppl call you sifu.. biggrin.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 8 2018, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 5 2018, 05:31 PM)
just remember that super high growth, usually doesn't last long.........
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Ok boss... thumbsup.gif

Bumi Armada seems to have bottomed out... I wanna paper trade it.. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(e_X @ Jan 5 2018, 10:32 PM)
Breakout on Monday?
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Is it breakout or making higher high?

Suicidal Guy
post Jan 8 2018, 08:00 PM

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QUOTE(e_X @ Jan 8 2018, 06:05 PM)
I call it breakout if candle break the previous higher high.

Bullish engulfing on 5-Jan and today make new hh so many signal for entry lol
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I see.. so many stocks breaking out.. cos index lost gravity..
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 10 2018, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 9 2018, 11:20 AM)
laugh.gif

so fast you wanna jump to another trade?

You always over trade la. tongue.gif

Trade less... You will end up winning more la.  whistling.gif
re: SK

both is correct but since my time frames are wider, it's a trend continuation and it's merely making a higher high.
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I have reduced my total counters to 5 already.. Consider making progress? Paper trade for learning purpose should be no harm right? From SKPRES, I learnt something new which is the risk of late stage trend..

Today I paper trade Armada at 88 cents.. cut loss 85 cents..
Armada has already turned around but the market has not re-rated the share price yet.. Consider now oil price recovered,
possible that it's share price could be re-rated and start a new uptrend.. but then, it has about 100m worth of unrealised losses..

QUOTE(twhong_91 @ Jan 9 2018, 04:45 PM)
sold my umwog this morning, the super run was mainly driven by the increase of oil price. so far the fundamentals of the company is still okay but the 4th quarter will be making losses due to impairment as mentioned in their previous quarter report.

i m not sure about the utilisation of their rigs but if im not mistaken the utilisation rates are higher as compared to the previous quarters.

almost a 50% gains from this counter.
tongue.gif
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UMWOG last quarter had a 100% rig utilisation rate.. net profit about 1m laugh.gif This quarter utilisation rate will be lower.. Their contracts are short term only.. mostly few months..
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 26 2018, 05:04 PM

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Why so quiet here again?? sad.gif

Both my paper trade kena cut loss sweat.gif


QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 10 2018, 06:52 PM)
5 counters at one go.
too many tongue.gif

u trading or u collecting stocks? whistling.gif
so say...
u are only allowed to trade 3 stocks only ( no in and outs pls) for a whole year...
how do you think you will perform?
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Haha.. Reduce half consider good la..

To answer your question, I think if only allowed to trade 3 stocks... My stock picking skills need to be damn sharp la.. no shotgun.. use sniper.. need practice and improve.. have to pick the right stock..


QUOTE(e_X @ Jan 23 2018, 05:56 PM)
How can someone know the result of quarter report before it's official came out?

Insider?
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Ya lo.. Insider la.. if not how to know the result before it is out in public? hmm.gif


Suicidal Guy
post Jan 26 2018, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(e_X @ Jan 26 2018, 05:11 PM)
Maybe red market lor.

Insider and Shark is the same meh?
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Insider and shark is not the same la.. Shark don't have to be insider to goreng the stock.. Just use big wok to goreng only.. Insider don't have to be a shark la.. Ikan bilis insiders know and buy the stocks early before news and result is out lo..

But then there are people out there who does their homework well and can estimate the outcome of coming results to a certain extent.. These are the people who make money in stocks lo..
Suicidal Guy
post Jan 26 2018, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 26 2018, 06:54 PM)
in bold... guess what?

that's what needed each and every single time you trade a stock.

there's no such thing as try luck one tongue.gif
*
But if not sure, can ask for opinion here or not ah? biggrin.gif



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