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Coup De Grace
post May 30 2017, 11:52 PM

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Padini QR yoy -1%. Another potential waterfall?
Coup De Grace
post May 30 2017, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 30 2017, 05:51 PM)
..... and this is the accident waiting to happen.... >100xPE

user posted image
*
Jatuh AIr soon?

Maybe the stock operators still want to bring more people in
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2017, 07:01 AM)
Knowing the fundamentals would help more than just looking at charts.
Like I said before, do not let the charts use you.
*
Agreed

Btw how does this chart looks to u? Pwroot
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Volume is decreasing from last week. This stock volume looks like quite low compare to other FB stocks. Trend reversal soon?

FA wise, better earnings last two quarters, PE and DY better than Oldtown

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: May 31 2017, 12:01 PM
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2017, 12:20 PM)
Understand more of its fundamental la.

One. Ok can understand the comparison with Old town but Old town is overrated. So being better than Oldtown doesn't say much.

Earnings was better the last 2 quarters but then on a fiscal yearly comparison it's simply flat and uninspiring. Which CLEARLY does not really justify the current stock pricing.

Meaning to say you are betting on Proot on an already optimistic prices...
*
I see. Thanks

Looks like not much meat left on the bone for this counter

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: May 31 2017, 04:39 PM
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ May 31 2017, 04:58 PM)
No waterfall wo. Counters with quite good result got waterfall pulak
*
Surprisingly jumped up to 3.51

Maybe instead of quarter report, investors compare this fiscal year with last year.

But buy is 3.34 and sell is at 3.51 right now hmm.gif

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: May 31 2017, 05:11 PM
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2017, 05:00 PM)
Ok. Let me say it 'differently'.... tongue.gif

Proot reported profits the other day. Fiscal year end profit stood at 43.5 million vs 43.3 million a year ago.

Which means profits were .... fill in your description..... flat/stagnant/growthless/poor/ etc etc etc....

Despite such lacking earnings,  Proot trades at an earnings multiples of 19x...

Does it sound attractive at all?

Which investor would pay 19xPE for a company with no earnings growth for the current fiscal year?
*
Yes, not much profit growth. I guess this is now becoming a dividend counter
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ May 31 2017, 05:15 PM)
Yea jumped at 4.50pm. Ini goreng ka wrong price input?
*
Someone got fat fingers? maybe wanna typed 3.31
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2017, 05:15 PM)
Dividend counter?

looks like you are getting a lot of risky perceptions (like what is fallen means equals good buy or dividend counter means good/safe stock) about the market.

Let me say this.... you can have a good/SOLID so-called company....
paying more than 6% dividend....
but profits kept falling.....

U think the price will hold just because of the risky yield?
Buy low sell high?
You think that's a good strategy?
whistling.gif
*
A Better strategy I think is understanding the trend, and choosing higher profit growth

For example aluminium prices, USD strenght or raw material prices

If got dividend, even better since it suggests good cashflow

Extra, if the company has an economic moat

Then I let the profit runs, or cut my loss short

If there is correction because profit is stagnating, then I evaluate to hold or sell

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: May 31 2017, 05:23 PM
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 31 2017, 05:24 PM)
You did not answer the following question... tongue.gif

Let me say this.... you can have a good/SOLID so-called company....
paying more than 6% dividend....
but profits kept falling.....

U think the price will hold just because of the risky yield?

*
No, i don't think so

After all, a lot of punters in bursa are chasing after profit growth

Not cash flow or dividends

Would not lower profit reduce their cashflow hence lower dividends?

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: May 31 2017, 05:26 PM
Coup De Grace
post May 31 2017, 06:42 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ May 31 2017, 05:30 PM)
Haha well that's true. But rant abit lo because i cabut at 3.29 yesterday. Memang uncle aunty ni
*
Cabut because QR-1% yoy?
Coup De Grace
post Jun 1 2017, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 1 2017, 05:22 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Update...

Parkson closed at 575.

The profits does matter (not difficult to have a quick look see)

user posted image

* those 3 quarters that shows positive profits? They all include one-off disposals. *

By my calculations... we have now seen 19 CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS of losses !!  shakehead.gif

And not looking for the share price.... the share price has broken lower...

user posted image

* Buy low, sell high? The problem with such strategy is that it is rather very risky if we used this as a one blanket rule. Some stocks are consistently hitting new 56-week lows (another rather pointless yardstick) , The low one buy today could very well turn out to be the highs of the yesterdays. *

user posted image
The BIG picture is actually highlighted clearly in their performance review in their latest earnings notes.

user posted image
Look at the cumulative year-to-date review of its retail sections in all countries.

THEY ARE ALL LOSING MONEY!!

Also, this Parkson business strategy of focusing on new store growth.... well it clearly doesn't seem to be working anymore. Yeah Parkson opened 2 new stores. Parkson MyTown and Parkson Sunway Velocity. Hard to understand. Opening two brand new stores at two NEW MEGA MALL which are located so close to each other.  rolleyes.gif
** Technicals? Chinese Water Torture. Just when you think the stock cannot go down any further, it does!

** NTA. Many have used the NTA as a reason to buy this stock.... and yet Parkson keep falling!
Take care.
icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Soon will go to 0 cents bye.gif

I think profit growth is what matter. Once the growth ends like Karex, it is time to cabut

Coup De Grace
post Jun 2 2017, 11:08 AM

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Another stock (5155) getting cheaper and cheaper

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-35% today for failing to submit its third quarterly report

Looks like trading will be suspended
Coup De Grace
post Jun 2 2017, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ May 31 2017, 07:12 PM)
I cabut because it breaks 3.30 and the 23rd May volume dunno how to interpret. I cabut that time also QR not yet out. After market only it released
*
Spiked up again to 3.54 before close

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Coup De Grace
post Jun 2 2017, 05:32 PM

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Trend reversal for karex? Looks like bullish harami

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR (June 2): The world's largest condom maker Karex Bhd saw its share price rebound today on bargain hunting after two consecutive days of falling due to the stock being punished for its weaker financial results for the third quarter ended March 31, 2017 (3QFY17).


This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 2 2017, 05:40 PM
Coup De Grace
post Jun 5 2017, 09:05 PM

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Looks like bullish rebound pattern for Karex

Attached Image
Coup De Grace
post Jun 6 2017, 09:22 AM

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Just papertrading these stocks with my system. These jatuh air stocks got my attention lately so testing if my system can make money from them.

For me, the line below is cut loss, and the line above is buy in after the bullish harami pattern which indicates a trend reversal
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Personally, I prefer to trade on longer term stocks with better fundamentals

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 6 2017, 08:48 AM)
sweat.gif

Frankly I don't understand you. Here's why.....

1. What's the 2 vertical line (that has no value) which you have drawn across? wink.gif

2. Just the other day you wrote:
If time to cabut, why still Karex?  hmm.gif

Karex is sitting on a 5 consecutive quarters of decline. At this rate, it's trading on a potential yearly  EPS of less than 3 sen. We are looking at a stock trading with a pe > 60. With a clear decline in profits, how many other people you think might want to chase the stock up? ( I hear people investing in private  companies that are making more and more money but to invest in a company that is losing more and more money?  hmm.gif  )

The problem, I understand, in any market, ANY stocks can be fried. ANY.  And sometimes, these big name stocks sound sexy. But I reckon it's better you need to understand the risk trading such stocks.

3. Look at the current type of stocks you are/had focused on. Jatuh air stocks.
Ok, Karex did well the past 2 days. But your current system picked stocks like Xingquan. When you posted on the 2nd Xingquan closed at 0.045. 2 days later it closed at 0.02 sen.

Here's another issue. Such penny stocks. It's extremely hard to line up your sell bids because the Q is usually large in numbers. The only way to sell is that you need to give in and sell to the buyers bid. If the trade buy/sell bid is 1.5 sen and 2 sen, do take into consideration the extra huge losses you have to endure if you were forced to sell at 1.5 sen.

So in such trading system, your stock selection focus on stocks allowed you to gain a 20 sen gain on Karex (assuming you got in at 1.67 and sold at 1.87 sen) A 11.97% loss.
But in the same system, your stock selection also focused on stock that could lose 2 sen (assuming you buy at 0.045 and sold at 0.02 sen). A loss of 55%!

Your trading system has a potential to lose more than you gain!

And usually all it takes is one BIG BAD MISTAKE to wipe everything away!

So caveat.
Ever think of it in this way? Trade wisely dude... always.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 6 2017, 09:29 AM
Coup De Grace
post Jun 6 2017, 12:17 PM

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This system of buying on downtrend reversal seems quite risky for longer term play. Thanks for your warnings.

In short, what is cheap can get cheaper, what is expensive can get more expensive.

Will check your other posts on SK, Vivocom, Parkson, Xingquan

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 6 2017, 09:52 AM)
Yes, of course I understand your intention. However, my point to you is that such system tends to generates more risks.

Leave charts out. Think for a moment..... Think about the system you are trying to develop.
Ok?
Now ask yourself....
why do we have such cases?
why do we have such cases where stocks suddenly plunges?
And when we scalp of the bottom in such scenarios, we are challenging the market that they got it wrong. Yes?

Ever think of the flip side?
A stock just broke UP STRONGLY instead of breaking down.
They go on a 2 or 3 day tear.
Creating them long candles.
Now would you want to do the opposite by shorting?
Yes, an understandable practice cos the stocks could consolidate and perhaps after 2 or 3 days of consolidation or maybe more, the stock would resume its uptrend again.
Now the consolidation phase. Sometimes it is short. Sometimes there isn't any meat (hope you understand this)....
Agree?
If you can understand the risk in shorting in such situations, you would understand the risks in betting for the reversal in a plunging stock.
Stocks generally do not fall without a reason.

1. Karex. The profits is CLEARLY going down the drain.
2. Xingquan. DO study the history la. It's a bloody joke. Understand the fuss against Chinese stocks. And when these Chinese stocks can't even produce a financial statement, understand the implication la.
3. Parkson. Ahem. Big name retail company but so what. Look at the books. Look at the numbers. Malaysia losing money. China losing money. It's a bloody joke.
4. AAX and AirAsia. Do read again the earlier postings.
5. Poweroot and Oldtown. Do they deserve the high valuations that they were trading earlier?
Several real time postings made last time before.

Do search back my postings on SKPet. The warnings I gave on chasing the OnG blue chip stock. The stock fell from 5. How much capital has one got to average all the way down?

Vivocom. The 3 billion stock. See how it fell.

Xingquan. Posted on it when it was 1++

Parkson. Posted on it when it was 2++
Take care.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 6 2017, 12:18 PM
Coup De Grace
post Jun 7 2017, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 6 2017, 12:42 PM)
Run as many trial trades as possible. See the end results.  Compare the success rate vs the failures. Most important, gauge if you can contain and limit each lossess cause as far as I know,  losses can be extremely humbling.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Sure

Thanks
Coup De Grace
post Jun 7 2017, 09:41 AM

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Disclaimer: Paper trading
Stock: FGV
Attached Image

May form a morning star by today. Also, selling volume decreasing so a rebound may happen

Last Resultwise:
QUOTE
YoY… 1Q17 returned to the black with core net profit of RM17.7m (from a core net loss of RM60.9m a year ago), boosted mainly by higher palm product prices and CPO production, lower administrative expenses, and better performance at logistics and others sector, but partly offset by losses at sugar division (arising from higher raw sugar cost and weaker MYR).


However, longterm outlook:
QUOTE
While we applaud management’s conscious move to improve FGV’s operations (which include downsizing staff force, embarking on aggressive replanting exercise, and tightening supervision of plantation operations), we believe near-term share price performance will remain weak given the weak near-term earnings outlook at the sugar division. Sugar division aside, we believe a re-rating on the stock would only be justified when core earnings improve.

Attached Image

This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 7 2017, 09:54 AM
Coup De Grace
post Jun 8 2017, 08:28 AM

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Even analysts are pessimistic on this stock's future. Earnings bad, management bad. Only positive is FGV may be in play later during the GE trend or if CPO price shoot up.

QUOTE
Analysts downgrade stock on concerns over boardroom rumble
PETALING JAYA: The clash in the upper management of Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), which led to the suspension of its chief executive officer (CEO), has left analysts uncertain about the company’s future direction.
Analysts said the suspension of FGV group president and CEO Datuk Zakaria Arshad could impact the company’s earnings, as he had been successful in implementing cost-cutting measures, as well as improving the performance of its core plantation business since taking over the helm in April last year.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...dJegjzte0QhQ.99


CPO:
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 8 2017, 08:05 AM)
Yes, as I have said before, ANY kind of stocks can be goreng UP, which means, sometimes despite our best logical reasoning the stock can still act contrary to our hard work. Yes it happens. It is what it is, the stock market. This is how the game is set up. Should we abandon our logical reasoning and simply bang on?

Use FGV.

FGV currently has a trailing eps of only 2.2 sen.  rolleyes.gif
What it means is that based on current quarterly trends, at current pace, potentially FGV might only earn 2.2 sen eps for the current fiscal year.
At 1.66, we are looking at a stock that is trading with an price earnings multiple of over 75x !!!
Yeah. 75x PE.

Now let's take a fast look at the quarterlies.

[attachmentid=8881986]

Look at the massive lumpy losses.

What does these losses suggest to you?

Then we look at the 5 year track record.

[attachmentid=8881987]

Look at how the profits has collapsed. And since its IPO too!

Now given such a track record, how would you assume the stock is trading since IPO? Yes, let's use our logical reasoning. See if it works or not....

drums please...........................................

[attachmentid=8881988]

Yes, over time, a lousy company = a lousy stock. Yes, time is the enemy of a lousy company. You cannot escape one. As long as things remain, the lousy company usually perform lousy earnings. Who wants to invest in a company whose earnings is less and less?
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This post has been edited by Coup De Grace: Jun 8 2017, 08:33 AM

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