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TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Feb 2 2021, 11:19 AM)
Yeah I agree, ASP wont drop a mere 20%, but I am slightly more optimistic, I think at least 10-20% higher than pre-covid.

I also think that the FY2023 numbers might not have included a full ASP normalization. Once we have the FY2024 numbers, we will know - if NP drops, means ASP will continue to decline further post 2023,
*
The danger for you is that you might look for value once the glove stocks really fall......

mega value trap.



Do give it a real gooooooooooooooooooood thought. icon_rolleyes.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Feb 2 2021, 11:49 AM)
Demand CAGR is still there, and my FA entry is even lower than JP morgan's price, I think if I can get it at my FA entry, it is quite safe already.

But IF ASP really drops to pre-covid level post 2023, I think even my FA entry is not an undervalued entry, but a fairly valued entry
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Okay. If you insist. I say no more. cool2.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Feb 2 2021, 12:12 PM)
Thanks for the advice though, if it can drop until pre-covid price, I really see no harm jumping in for long term.
*
two things...

1. Part of your value is anchored to current prices....

2. Market will still be forward looking.



For 1.

Current windfall is due to these astronomical Selling Prices. Once it falls, there's a great chance that we will never see such extreme ASP again....... unless of course, a brand new pandemic happen again........

In the meantime, when the ASP normalize .... what will we see? Price war amongst glove makers. Yup, the big one, sure they can and they will survive. But how long will the price war last? A year? 2 years? 5 years? So in a price war, do you see earnings increasing or declining? wink.gif

Meanwhile... not all customers will be forgiving. They will remember what happened these few months. They will remember how the current glove makers, demanded deposits for order, constant price increment. Yup, in short, how many customers will remain loyal ? Will they switch to newer suppliers?

and yea... check out the glove makers pre covid stock performances.


For 2.

Once it fall the ASP, what's there for the market to look forward to? Without the prospect of earnings growth, how to seduce buyers?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 2 2021, 12:28 PM
TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Feb 2 2021, 12:13 PM)
the problem is that... it won't laugh.gif
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so says the Harta long term shareholder .................................... laugh.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 2 2021, 12:19 PM)
I did download it.
Waiting to properly read it during lunchtime. Chairing meetings in the morning where I can sporadically reply in between presentation decks.

smile.gif
*
laugh.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Feb 2 2021, 01:45 PM)
rclxs0.gif

haha. speaking from my opinion only lar. this is a forum mah

something did interest me on Dancomech. PE ok, high volume, company expected to announce higher revenue to to acquisition of company. some sharks are already inside and probably will cause more awareness on the market

it's a very good stocks to ehem..trade

but the problem i foresee it's the outstanding of volume. however it is not a bad in business point of view where the conversion of warrant can be used to pay off for the acquisition
*
rclxs0.gif




TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 25 2021, 07:45 PM)
statikinetic ... we chatted on ESOS b4 right?

I saw this ...

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3124171

The boss wife exercised some ESOS

1. Allotment of 371,700 shares via exercise of ESOS Options; and
2. Transfer of 100,000 shares to Lim Jin Feng via off market.

See here for the Exercise prices...

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3124165

wink.gif
*
statikinetic

Just saw this .... shocking.gif shakehead.gif

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3126156

user posted image

Boss gets big chunk!!!
Brother & wife also get!!!


64 million new ESOS!


rolleyes.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 2 2021, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 27 2021, 04:22 PM)
user posted image

screaming ....  laugh.gif
*
Wow.... this fella is screaming for new real estate ......

user posted image
TSBoon3
post Feb 3 2021, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 2 2021, 07:33 PM)
Waa, another round of ESOS.
On top of monthly salary they also taking monthy ESOS?  thumbup.gif
*
The amount of ESOS options offered to the bosses directly... is shocking. It's not as if the bosses are underpaid....

Rather disgusting imo ....




... sadly ... not many will bother or care ......
TSBoon3
post Feb 3 2021, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 3 2021, 09:48 AM)
Fighting short seller more important than looking at management.

Cause most don't go in as investor although they claimed to be.
*
Epic failure selling uw....
TSBoon3
post Feb 3 2021, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 3 2021, 12:12 PM)
I have just gotten out as well, i do what feels right to my heart and my gut. You know when a car goes too fast you get scare as well of the possibility of an accident.

If market cannot agree now, i shall wait and see if it agree with me on a later date or perhaps we were wrong tongue.gif
*
tongue.gif

Was being grumpy.... missing my morning lim kopi sessions..... laugh.gif laugh.gif

Ya... no complains ... and I won't be looking for re-entry.... not one that goes for 2nd helpings....

MI, Inari and Uchi all had nice moves this morning.... and MPI .....
MPI can't really complain ... cos I chose UW ..... but man, the momentum is really solid. What a pity.
TSBoon3
post Feb 3 2021, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Feb 3 2021, 01:15 PM)
IKR.
sad.gif
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So missing .... the morning lim kopi .............
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Feb 4 2021, 11:32 AM)
I think tech sector in bursa has reach it's peak based on today movement

I think only. No rewards by guessing correct or wrong laugh.gif
*
Need to develop your own selling setups. wink.gif

It's much better than .... 'i think' ..... laugh.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 4 2021, 01:06 PM)
I feel a precious coconut about to fall from the tree!
Need to shake a bit more. biggrin.gif
*
Huh.......
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 4 2021, 01:14 PM)
Sounds like you about to drop a tip-sy for us.
*
laugh.gif

The other day, you yourself gave the scream tipsy..... ;w
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:19 PM

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Not all tech stocks are the same... but if one or two of the big leaders starts declining.... ahem...

Here's the current live chart of MPI as of midday...

user posted image

Those blue lines were posted in Sep... tongue.gif


» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


For MPI, I would place it on the 'ready to sell' list.... yup... if I have ... I better squat by the screen and if it goes below 36, it would be time for me to bugger off.
Yes, there are some signs that perhaps it's a good time time to sell for a really nice profit...
not 100% conclusive.... but .............



statikinetic

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 4 2021, 01:20 PM
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Feb 4 2021, 01:18 PM)
confirmation of set up will be determined on tomorrow closing

frontken is likely to report it's QR on tomorrow lunch

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
frontken is from the goreng family .... so I dunno anything on it............... innocent.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Feb 4 2021, 01:23 PM)
what do you mean by goreng family?

it's subsidiary in taiwan is one of the vendor for TSMC

from what i see, it's a company with strong fundamental minus it's over hype valuation
*
Few years back, it was just a stock in the frying pan............. tongue.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Feb 4 2021, 01:28 PM)
Definitely good enough, the current valuation makes me dizzy.
While the music is still play, may be a good time to secure a chair.

I agree with by sell-buy relationship in learning when to sell and secure your profit is important.
Like poker players say, don't count your money while still sitting at the table.

Selling is a window. The worse your buying position, the smaller the sell window. The worst buying position means there is no sell window at all.
The best buying position means the sell window is permanently open for you.
*
thumbup.gif

You explain it so much better than me.... thumbup.gif

if I have ..... I would still hold now ... but on high alert to sell.

But I don't...... so ...... I better diam sikit.... laugh.gif laugh.gif
TSBoon3
post Feb 4 2021, 01:35 PM

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Mi and Inari ....

user posted image

user posted image


Getting frosty ... but .... still got some little legs left (i think)
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