It must be one of the i3 loser who started those stupid comments.

Lose money? Blame IBs and shorties.

It's all Tesla fault....

Clearly many are stuck, so create telegram group and hope and pray they can copycat GME.

They think their gloves stocks is getting no low and no where but down, despite their insane current earnings (harlo ... do they understand forward earnings? ) ...

just imagine.... what if .... yup .... what if ... the glove earnings growth starts to decline.

p/s .... and this is why sites like i3 are so toxic ....... the minute a share go down... blame sini, blame sana .... blame it on the shorts.





And shorting is so, so, so much more difficult to make money.

The understanding of the company's fundamentals has got to be so spot on.

The valuations .....

and understanding the stock itself.


.... and then there is a time frame too.


Simply short .... u die one ....


So if one see a bunch of short in a stock...
why force yourself into a bet, arguing the shorts are wrong?

do they think they get extra credit for winning such trade?

Two simple questions such as ....

1. Did we overpay for the stock?
2. Was our valuation of the stock too optimistic?

usually not asked ......



got some other stocks doing fairly well....

Keeping this chart....

this is the minute chart of TopGlove this morning....




the day they tried a GME play on TopGlove....


gapped up strongly on high volume....

then ...... declined.......





those that chase above 7......


buy high and never sell?

.... and then .... were you around when stock forums had stock promoters?

One famous one that posted in lowyat, i3 and had own blog is called Bone*****


of course recently ... telegrams....

but the game still remain the same....


seducing suckers to gobble up what they spit out....

http://www.investsmartsc.my/pump-and-dump/

Google the name mentioned....

In all honesty, not much different than old fart at i3...

And yeah....every now and then... a smaller version would show up even in lowyat.

Forums/social media... cavaet emptor

Yup... somehow he got 'caught' .....

Kena caught by SC mah....

You miss him issit?

Well.. we got the billion dollar profit.

Huh. You wanted the bee and u got the B.

Now you want it to fall?!

LOL... Duunowhatmorehewant!



stillplayingwifmespider

Okay... I won't say more.

Well, have a good weekend. Cheers!

This is CIMB coverage on Superman



1. Remember post #3603...

In Nov the TP was 13.20
In post #3603, the lowered it to 10.80
Latest, they up the TP higher to 11.80



2. Their earnings forecast they changed...

21F 3.231 Billion changed to 4.453 Billion
22F 2.286 Billion changed to 2.703 Billion
23F 1.598 Billion changed to 1.607 Billion (LOL! ... really? )

They increased the estimates all over

3. The declining earnings trend is the same, Superman is expected to earn much less money next FY.

4. They are basing the earnings on CY22 numbers. Be very careful... it's calendar year and not fiscal year.

CY22 numbers for Superman will effectively consists of the following quarters...

fy22 Q2, fy 22Q3, fy 22Q4 and fy 23Q1 numbers....

.... yup, so situpid. If they are gonna use CY, then give the readers the earnings tables based on CY and not FY.


5. The target price of 11.80 is based on 15x CY22F P/E..... which means their CY22 estimate eps is 11.80 / 15 = 78.6sen

With a share base of 2.721 billion shares, the estimate profits should be around 2.138 Billion.

6. Point 4. CY22 consisting of fy22 Q2, fy 22Q3, fy 22Q4 and fy 23Q1 numbers....

note .... fy 21 Quarterly profits aren't there. It's no longer used to calculate the TP.
Yup... what is important for the market is what the stock can earn in the future.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 2 2021, 09:54 AM

... and this is Kenanga's writeup on Superman....

they lowered ..... the TP.






Estimates are raised higher but fy22 numbers are much lower....

And they are also using CY estimates....

Well.... exactly...

Incredibly, this was the view that the market had. They all had the same conclusion on their working estimates. Then MacQuarie had the guts to call it out last Sep.

It's a genuinely unique position. It's very hard to fanthom that the glove makers are making billions CURRENTLY and yet, the bear camp are treating them as if the glove makers are carrying a plague....

Earn so much... but price so low...

Hence.... ppl started looking for excuses.... the research reports... the call warrants... the shorties.....

Let's reverse the situation....

Say one was a buyer of .... errr... Superman.

Around end March or April .... that would have been the buying zone....

Now, at that time... was Superman's earnings very good?

The below screenshot... shows the current or trailing 12 months earnings for Superman. It was very really average. There was no boom boom earnings...



Yet... the stock soared ..... many bags could have been won! why?

Isn't it because.... due to the pandemic... the glove makers were PROJECTED to make mega bucks?

So based on what the stock is estimated in the future, the stock soared.....

Now... current earnings show big bucks .... but the future (?) ... the earnings is expected to decline.

See?

The one big misconception is 'ASP normalizing' .... cos I feel they think the ASP will fall straight back to pre Covid...

I believe they do not realise that .. a simple decline of a mere 20% in ASP .... would bring havoc to earnings.

TA Research has one good estimate table.... you can download the whole file from Bursa website.

https://eresearchsystem.bursamalaysia.com/e...ad.pub?id=32845

On that table, they show their calculations + the average ASP (average ASP cos the latex and nitrile gloves sells at different prices) ....

The TA report link... did you download it?

there's a lot of interesting points.

The table again...



1. It includes the production numbers ....

2. See the ASP estimates for fy21 and fy22. They are projecting ASP of rm284 in fy21 to fall/normalise to rm174.80.

That should be around 30% plus... I think.

3. The pre covid level is below rm90.

4. With the production numbers and the revenue of the past, clearly the ASP is the boom boom boom factor.

5. See the naughty CY numbers.... esp for 2019 and 2020. See how the CY numbers differ. (the CY numbers is higher _

Now for example, the fy22 estimate net profit is 3.888 (see page 1 of the report), the CY22 estimate is 4.262 Billion.


So by using CY numbers, we see that the profit numbers are much higher versus the FY numbers.




Lastly .... the ASP numbers. My arguments on the past is based on simple business practice. Cos I do not believe a business can jack up their Selling Prices for a long period of time. For TG, using TA numbers, we saw pre covid ASP of rm89 increasing all the way to rm265.00. For me, such alleviated prices can never last.....