Hi boon gor,

Think is kenanga foresee 3rd q earned 1b,  so 4th q also 1b without revise asp.
Total 4q is bout 2.7-2.8b
Almost there la....
😁

Man, those ESOS prices. The ones I usually see are 10 - 20% range of the market.
This one is literally a guaranteed skim cepat kaya.

My portfolio kept sinking on average due to market weakness that I had to make a punt to try and prop up the portfolio value.
I snuck into SPMX last week. 

If things keep sinking and goes contrary to the glove counters, I'll hedge em.

In terms on being a billionaire, I guess the dream of beating Maybank might be gone so why not replace it with individual wealth instead?

Gloves moved up on a block yesterday when everything is bleeding red.
I guess the assurance on the lockdown news is turning the market back green today morning with gloves as usual taking the opposite direction. Overall, feels like a market reaction to the MCO factor rather than an earnings reaction.

dont la... alot people all in gloves here.. hahaha

This is BWC so hentam only. No need to worry about how it gets across.
You play with your spiders anymore you might become the new Spider Man.

Hahahah , all fun and games

It is interesting.
It is almost a case of putting the cart before the horse. Instead of looking at the data and deriving some off it, it is instead concluding Harta is a great buy at the start and seeing what numbers can be pulled together tu support that view.

The volatility of glove makers probably nobody knows how to value them due to the fluid situation we have, blending vaccinations and new mutations.

On another note, I am ready for CNY considering how festive my portfolio looks right now. It's gone from the red and green of Christmas to mostly red.

My expectation of Superman's QR is it should include the letter 'B'.
Kenanga is less bullish of Superman's prospects, and the falloff for '23 is interesting.

Out of curiousity, between the Big 4, which would be your personal pick if you were forced into one?

Just came across the article below in the Star.
Covid-19 pandemic could last four or five years: Singapore minister
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanp...gapore-minister

I do agree that the benchmark to value a business is in the revenue generation.
If you are using the measurement of a business in turning earnings to net cash (Disregarding profit margins, revenue growth, etc), wouldn't it be better to use Cash from Op instead? Free Cash Flow (As a bank balance) is influenced by investing and financing activities, and high growth companies use a fair amount of cash to expand so how much they leave in the bank will be skewed.

The number of years used in the formula influences the final value so was wondering of the significance of the 5 years. So if I use a smaller number like 4, I end up with a smaller value (2.91). If I expand it to 6, it increases the value.[B]
Anyhow, let's jump into the projected growth of the company at 10%.
I think the industry is expected to grow at 6-7%, not sure if I remembered it wrongly as I read it somewhere and is purely from memory. If that is true, then would it be better to use industry growth rate as a projection?
Sorry for the deluge of questions!

I'm not so sure / convince why the stock fly like this  ...even with current market sentiment..

too fast too furious...

Bonus Issue got so powerful meh 

Projected growth rate of Thong Guan’s cash flow in the next 5 years.

TGuan’s YoY net profit has been growing at CAGR of 15.23% (NP T4Q 80615 - 39679 NP 2015 over the last 5 years).

*all figures are in 000’*

Conservatively speaking, I’ll take CAGR 10% after factoring in possible drop in sales, fluctuation of resin prices & foreign exchange losses).

Discount factor formula: 1/(1+risk free rate)^n , whereby n = number of years to be discounted.

Our current OPR is 1.75%. (In United States, risk free bond rate is used instead).

Based on above formula:

Discount factor of TGuan in next 5 years:
1/1.0175, 1/1.0353, 1/1.0534, 1/1.0719, 1/1.0906 for year 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 respective.

Discount factor of TGuan: 0.983, 0.966, 0.949, 0.933, 0.917

Next, we need to find the discounted value of all future cash flow. (DV)

DV = Projected cash flow x Discount factor

Assuming the projected earnings and cash flow to be increasing at the rate 10% annually, the projected cash flow for year 2020 = free cash flow 2019 + 10% growth.. free cash flow for year 2021 = free cash flow 2020 + 10% growth…etc..

Free cash flow 2019: 227,217

Projected free cash flow 2020: 249,938
Projected free cash flow 2021: 274,931
Projected free cash flow 2022: 302,424
Projected free cash flow 2023: 332,666
Projected free cash flow 2024: 365,932

Total discount value for year 2020-2024: 245,689 + 265,583 + 287,000 + 310,377 + 335,559

Total number of outstanding shares to date: 380,969

Intrinsic value: sum of discount value / NOSH = 3.79 MYR.

Hence,based on projected free cash flow in the next 5 years, discounted to present value, one share is worth 3.79 MYR as of today.

Thanks Boon, I’m still learning haha..

Anyway, I derived the free cash flow growth rate based on its track record..not plucking any numbers from the sky to fit the equation haha..

Another day of just sitting in the market.
Numbers are pointing that I'm way better at picking funds than picking stocks. Might have to portfolio adjust next quarter.

Looking at the whole GME drama for entertainment.

Yup.. you’re right..

Tbh these calculations are rather personal to me, anyone else doing it would derive a different number. For this reason, initially I wanted to pm statikinetic instead of posting it publicly but at the end gave in due to technical reason

At the end of the day, the intrinsic value one get may well be used as a tool for self-comforting purpose only.. because if the market doesn’t agree with you..man it’s an endless waiting game..

Borrowing a quote from John Maynard Keynes: “the market can remain irrational longer than you stay solvent.”

"The money is in the sitting".
Quote I heard from somewhere before. Peeping at the announcements at the end of the day for SPMX QR.

General question : How much of you total portfolio do you invest directly in stocks? Taking into account fund, commodities and cash.

Come come, be first. What's your total exposure to KLSE? 50%?