Haha you might be right.. the divvy is good tho.. I will continue to hold

My investment in INKP has returned >30% in less than 1 month..

Hopefully can go higher... still very low PE

But... we have not seen much changes in MY paper stocks..

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 18 2017, 10:26 AM

The relation also not the same.

INKP = makes pulp for local and export (direct pulp price increase = win)

ORNA and NTPM = Buys pulp (see above) to make paper products (older stock of pulp bought at cheaper price + rise in paper products = win)

More close to INKP will be MUDA ... but with one difference, INKP use raw wood, MUDA recycles...

Not so easy to analyse right?

You know why INKP PE so low? Because profits up 300% in a few Q, hence PE from 8-9 suddenly drop to 3.. Once it reach back to 8-9.. sell!

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 19 2017, 01:20 PM

Depends.. if consistent almost the same, then total last 4Q

If there is a fundamental change (not one off item), then last Q x 4 but with reasonable adjustment

if got rights, dilution, etc.. then the Q EPS to adjust accordingly.

i always use current price

No right way to do it..

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 19 2017, 02:19 PM

INKP price increase these few days breaks 50% profit already...

Gogogo!

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 22 2017, 10:35 AM

Still keeping INKP..

Stock market seems like not so condusive lately.. even stocks shows good earning reports is not going up.. maybe have to wait a while for the mojo.

INKP have a few shocker lately, price plunged 20% when there are report of environmental violations, later when the news is quashed went back to normal.

So volatile..

Paper and pulp prices is going up non stop.. latest news.





I would be careful with Orna, which is a USER of pulp. While the selling price of the products will undoubtedly rise, it's raw material price will also do so. Only those that can benefit 100% is those with feedstock that is priced constant (like pulp producers from wood).

Yes, this depends on their management and their raw material stock period.

I am looking at 3883 as well.. a better proxy. But the stock is very very quiet..



After reading the above ... might not be a good bet for PULP users..

I have not bought Orna or other paper stock except for INKP.

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2017, 10:46 AM

This quote for QR also makes me hesitant..



This post has been edited by gark: Oct 3 2017, 10:48 AM

Inventory can be two things... raw materials or finished goods.

Both is also good IF the price of raw material is rising and finished goods also rising.

But we dont know is.. if it is finished goods already pre-order or signed PO long ago with lower prices. Then they will take a hit..

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2017, 10:05 AM

Some PO are one shot delivery.. especially bigger ones. We dont have enough info to speculate.

I think we need to find other paper counters with more compelling story..

PPHB which is a user of pulp.. reported a poor set of earnings.. Higher sales, lower profit. Might be due to super high pulp prices.

Got any other companies to look see look see?

More interested in raw pulp or recycle pulp business. safer..

INKP already >50% mark..

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 4 2017, 10:38 AM

I just checked, most paper mills in malaysia import raw materials (pulp) or wastepaper.. domestic supply not enough.

Might want stay sideline a bit..

Wastepaper ban to china, end up china going mad for demand for pulp.. either virgin or recycled. When pulp demands goes up the roof, wastepaper goes up too..

Virgin pulp = From acacia trees (INKP, Aprilasia, Sabah Forest Industry..)
Recycled pulp = From wastepaper (Local malaysian firms)

China not only due to wastepaper, but demand for carton boxes exceed industry production, due to .. alibaba.

So now you know ARTIFICIAL demand is up the roof... but then hor, raw material price getting higher without LOCAL demand of finished goods going higher.. might not be a smart combo.

Winners are those pulp makers.. especially virgin pulp, as the tress need to be planted 5-8 years before harvesting (when price is cheap) and constant priced raw materials...

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 5 2017, 08:45 AM

Hmm someone is reading this forum?

I never seen other forum else got analyze paper stocks..

Sold all INTP.ID..and booked gain, PE already exceed 30x..

Continue to keep INKP.ID.. 65% gain and counting..

looking at EKAD.ID another value stock with low PE..

This post has been edited by gark: Oct 25 2017, 11:57 AM

Many years work in Indo liao.. but now already back to MY.

MY paper stocks only now the 'in' thing.... so late only people catch on.

INKP is going to get baggar status.. soon

Pulp have rallied over 300% since beginning of the year..

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 2 2017, 03:21 PM

No action in Malaysia.. just sold quite some counters to raise cash.

market not so good..

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 20 2017, 01:28 PM

Q for IGBreit at 1.55 .. for one month.. no get

In SGX sold some reit, added thaibev

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 20 2017, 02:01 PM