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Suicidal Guy
post Mar 26 2020, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 23 2020, 09:38 AM)
Contracting and manufacturing is different. Yes.
But you went heavy into businesses that relies on governmental contracts.

You mitigate your trading method risks via stuff like expectancy. (search lo - dun be lazy) and you can further improve if understand the stock itself. Knows the pros and the risk. Every individual stock has its own risks. Some more than others. Mitigate these risks and trade win percentage will drastically improve.

Contracts can be cancelled. We have seen it far too many times recently.

The virus has grinded nearly everything to a stop. Earnings will decline. So right now, just plan ahead but do not commit yourself to any trade. Make your game plan. Prepare.
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Ah yes. I have started a log to track my trade expectancy for two years.

https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-o...us-italy-2020-3


The situation is getting worse. More and more countries are in full or partial lockdown. It's a matter of time when almost every country will be in lockdown mode. rclxub.gif

Suicidal Guy
post Mar 27 2020, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 27 2020, 08:59 AM)
Do not forget to be an expert on position sizing.

The virus thing is deadly. As it is I feel US is paying the price of underestimating it, it does no appear if they got any handle of the situation and it is struggling big time to contain it.

Stay safe. Don't trade if the trade setup isn't in your comfort zone. Don't trade just for the sake of trading.
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If we only pick only one stock to trade at a time, then how to manage the position sizing? That means we can't utilise 100% of our cash in our trading. How ah?


Suicidal Guy
post Apr 2 2020, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 28 2020, 08:56 AM)
Why not? Why 200%?

Systems, methods are there. There is no 100% good fit. Adjust and adapt and fine tune it so that it fits who you are.
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Turns out I only scratched the surface on position sizing. Reading Van Tharp's book now.

This post has been edited by Suicidal Guy: Apr 2 2020, 10:04 PM
Suicidal Guy
post May 21 2020, 04:17 PM

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I noticed this ARRB having such low PE and good profits last year. Until I checked how many PA shares are there. When valuing whether a stock is cheap or not, apart from considering PA and warrant shares, we also have to take into account the cash, debt, minority interest and other assets such as investment property the company has.
Suicidal Guy
post May 22 2020, 12:42 AM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ May 21 2020, 05:36 PM)
Ah i see. By converting those PA, the PE can be lowered. Quick check on its financial ratio, ROE also >10 and there's no debt if i read the QR correctly? One can also notice that the EPS lowered even though the NP simlar with its YoY. Hmm
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No. It increases the PE by converting the PA shares. If you add the value of the PA shares to it's market cap, it will show that the actual PE is much higher. The existence of the huge number of PA shares skewed all these ratios such as PE and ROE.
Suicidal Guy
post May 27 2020, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ May 22 2020, 01:02 AM)
Eh my bad. you're right. Shares increase, EPS lowered. EPS lower PE increase.

What's the usual reason they convert these PA shares? To manipulate these ratios?
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No. Having PA and company warrants in circulation will make the share price look cheap because only ordinary shares is taken into account when calculating these ratios. But PA and company warrants are being issued to raise funds, not to purposely make the share price look cheap. The holders of PA share convert to ordinary shares because it is in the money or increase their voting rights.
Suicidal Guy
post Jun 2 2020, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 1 2020, 06:33 PM)
well... well ....

finally a good time to take profit .... signs are finally there..... 

user posted image
user posted image
user posted image
user posted image

Done and dusted for the year.... a very good year!
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Why Kossan is not included?

I took entry in Kossan at 5.85. Seems like it is the slowest mover among the top 4.
Suicidal Guy
post Jul 5 2020, 11:14 PM

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It’s about time someone raise the question of current valuation for glove stocks.

Look at how much the market cap has increased vs expected windfall profits..


Search on shopee or lazada how much is the selling price now..

😅

Suicidal Guy
post Jul 6 2020, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 6 2020, 10:18 AM)
tongue.gif
Here will be a good exercise....
Say you have Superman...

So how and when will sell for a profit?

Paper trade that!
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Watch it closely and sell everything when there is a sharp U-turn. Key is have to watch closely.
Suicidal Guy
post Jul 13 2020, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 6 2020, 10:18 AM)
tongue.gif
Here will be a good exercise....
Say you have Superman...

So how and when will sell for a profit?

Paper trade that!
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Time to sell..
Suicidal Guy
post Oct 6 2020, 01:56 PM

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Ah Boon... your blacklisted company.. got catalyst for the stock to move up..

user posted image
Suicidal Guy
post Oct 7 2020, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 02:26 PM)
I am not fomo tongue.gif
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Ah Boon.. You're really stealy.. That's why I admire you wub.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Oct 8 2020, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 7 2020, 11:47 AM)
Aiyoooomah ! Hair all stand .....  doh.gif
so really want force me to see meh?........  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

nah.....
user posted image

see ... a busuk one always busuk one.... straight away no like what I see.....

1. see the stock rally from end July to end Aug?

2. the very day LCTitan released its earnings, stock out of the blue, decides to mati kow kow ... on back of heavy volume.... see the arrows...

3. after that day.... see how the stock 'crashed'....

4. now the stock is climbing back up... laugh.gif

which makes me wonder.... is the stock gonna be pump up and then collapse again after its earnings?  devil.gif
ps... you really remember my old postings on LC Titan eh?

for those that don't know....

.... LC Titan chemical IPO price...... what was it? ..... 6.50 tongue.gif

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/lott...below-ipo-price

which is so similar with what happened to Titan Chemicals last time.... IPO at high price... all the good earnings promised....
never materialised.... stock of course ... plunged since listing.... then after few years.... taken private.

LOL!

Well LC Titan ....

1. High IPO ... check
2. Plunge after IPO .... check
3. Lousy earnings after listing .... check

same same

how do you expect me as you say not blacklist this stock?  devil.gif
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1. High IPO ... check
2. Plunge after IPO .... check
3. Lousy earnings after listing .... check

Yup.. Agree with you on the above.. IPOed during peak earnings when margin spread is good to suck the max out of investors..

But now they benefit from margin spread again due to low raw mat price and tight supply of their final product..


user posted image
Lotte Chemical Corp chart looks interesting.. long term double bottom with bottoming tail but no confirmation for uptrend yet..

user posted image
LCTITAN broke long term downtrend line.. short term formed double bottom..

Just my humble opinion..

PS: wub.gif


Suicidal Guy
post Oct 13 2020, 12:40 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 8 2020, 11:42 AM)
Got to say ... good job!  :thumbsup:

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

cool2.gif
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As always, thank you for your feedback 👍
Suicidal Guy
post Oct 13 2020, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 13 2020, 11:23 AM)
The assessment of the risk for me is important when I trade.

In this instance, I do not trust the ownership of the stock, hence I would rather avoid or perhaps the better word is 'ignore' .... biggrin.gif
Risk assessment is so damn subjective and when the market is hot, this subject is very taboo.... LOL... until the consolidation.... then the jokers would be scrambling to find why their trade fails....
p/s ..... hope you are limiting the number of stocks you trade. tongue.gif
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Been busy with work nowadays.. If not I would have traded more biggrin.gif

Good thing I've been busy biggrin.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Oct 31 2020, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2020, 12:28 PM)
Hope you are okay....

user posted image

Did you ..... ?  wink.gif
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 28 2020, 02:37 PM)
Suicidal Guy

Just saw LCTitan QR.

Once again... it disapppints.
user posted image
and the stock tanks straight away ...............................................................

But the points 1,2 and 3 .... I made in that posting..... same same isn't it if you put it into current prospective?

stock shoots high.... and then come QR .... die cow cow........  shakehead.gif

see? having a blacklist is so, so, so important.

Ignore what others say.... some stocks, you just don't want to touch at all .......
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Hi @Boon3

Thanks for asking and thanks for your input.

user posted image


user posted image

On 20th, 15 min chart already showing warning signal. 15min chart making new low with increased volume. Daily close shows bottoming tail but volume is still not alarming. Usually there will be a rebound. So a trader would monitor 15min chart the next day to see if there is a rebound, and see if the rebound is weak or strong (consider to keep if rebound is strong). On 21st the next day, it is making new lows again with higher volume consecutively with no rebound. That would be the signal to exit. Daily chart shows increase in volume. If not monitoring the price on that day itself, the next day on 22nd would be the chance to exit.

Also, the the subsequent rebound seen on daily chart from 26th onward is with low volume showing that it is weak. That would be the second chance to exit.

Most of the time, a stock with public interest have a rebound after a big sell off. That is the chance to exit if things are not right.



Suicidal Guy
post Nov 17 2020, 10:52 AM

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Probably euphoria is starting for Covid19 beaten stocks.. next stage is realisation stage which will bring stocks down.. and then there will be real recovery..

That's what I think la..
Suicidal Guy
post Nov 18 2020, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Nov 17 2020, 11:23 AM)
with the fast movement due to technology and robo automated trading. i have some reservation on this
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What has it got to do with technology?

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 17 2020, 12:11 PM)
Stick to what your own personal best game plan. smile.gif

Ignore everything else............................................................. including mine if my beliefs contradicts your best game plan.  thumbsup.gif
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thumbsup.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Mar 4 2021, 03:34 PM

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Hi Boon3..

Carlsberg and Kawan Food got in your blacklist?
Suicidal Guy
post Mar 5 2021, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 4 2021, 03:56 PM)
After Seventy Seven years now only you look for me....  mad.gif
those two? not in my blacklist, you are  mega_shok.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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tongue.gif

Got so long meh?

I see your recent posts are sharing more of your thoughts and trades. smile.gif



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