Fuel Price for the period of 21/09 - 27/09/2017

Prediction :
RON95 : ⬇ decreased by RM0.02 to RM2.19/ltr
RON97 : ⬇ decreased by RM0.03 to RM2.49/ltr
Diesel  :  ⬇ decreased by RM0.04 to RM2.10/ltr

Nobody knows how the government calculate, I just share from my source.
Cheers

Well... The last time the Fuel price was low at RM1.89 in end of June 2017, the MOGAS95 price was USD59.566 per barrel & the USD-MYR currency exchange was about USD1-MYR4.32.

Now our currency is getting better at MYR4.21-USD1, however, the MOGAS95 price is high at USD70.6165 per barrel. Hopefully the MOGAS95 prices goes down next week too.

Care to share your source for us to refrence and help OP to improve the calculation?

Thanks bro, was hoping there was another source for MOPS other than from the CME Group.

Spot on. You won't happen to be able to predict the Jackpot, would you?

salut

Well...I'm just based on market rate as u can see. Anything can happen by Tmrw as I don't hv insider info haha.

For insider info, needs that jasonhank guy..he is indeed slow this week.

However based on the graph, if not down..i gave up on what govt's method of calculation liao. I'm still waiting for tge australia site to update for final confirmation

Let's have fun and try to estimate how much is this subsidy costing the government and thus, the rakyat. According to the National Energy Balance 2015 (Page 38), http://www.st.gov.my/index.php/en/all-publ...gy-balance-2015 We are consuming 12,800 ktoe of petrol and 9,385 ktoe of diesel a year.

So let's do some conversion to get the figures into litres
1 ktoe = 1,000 toe
1 toe = 7.33 boe
1 boe = 158.987295 litres

thus we are consuming 14,916,823,966 litres of petrol per year or 286,861,999 litres of petrol per week, or 40,980,285 litres of petrol per day.
For diesel, we are consuming 10,937,061,947 litres of diesel per year, or 210,328,114 lires of diesel per week, or 30,046,873 litres of diesel per day.

So, with the data above, and assuming 2015-2018 figures are roughly the same, the government subsidy cost per day is around RM4,917,634 for petrol and RM4,507,030 for diesel.

How much has it cost so far? If we use my previous estimates,

Week 29 March: RM28,686,200 petrol (10 sen) + RM18,929,530 diesel (9 sen)
Week 5 April: RM22,948,960 (8 sen) + RM18,929,530 diesel (9 sen)
Week 12 April: RM17,211,720 (6 sen) + RM12619687 (6 sen)
Week 19 April: RM34,423,440 (12 sen) + RM31,549,217 (15 sen)

Total estimate cost of subsidy so far is: RM185,298,284

There is a significant flaw in your assumption which is all petrol & diesel is subsidized.

In actual fact the petrol & diesel market is divided into the retail and commercial. Assuming that both of these market is subsidized is incorrect. As the weekly petrol price announcement only states retail price.

Mistaken identity bro. I'm Jason Bourne.
Currently still a lot of unknown. I really hope they just simplify to one mykad peg to one car below 1.3 and give a cap subsidy. Digging into the income from hasil may take even longer time to implement and a portion of Malaysians don't file income tax.

LGE in charge of petrol price?

IC can be one to be used...but u can't pay fuel with it i assume...
anyhow one of the best reference in the industry is the fleet card
e.g. Petrol company (like Shell) has been given their employee a type of credit-card like card (Shell card?)
When employee refuel with that card, rebate is credit on top at bill cycle n settle by employee...

In this case gov actually can create some kind of B40 card, maybe in the form of prepaid.
holder of the card can use that to pay on refuel
and i pretty sure of coz to avoid abuse, a certain cap/max ceiling usage can be control from there (aside from commercial 1, personal usage shouldn't go too far off)

What I can envision is to have
RON95 is float in a bucket range (gov maintain it within a certain range based on their capability to contain it to help the ppl ease through)
B40 will get the card which can allow them to pay for it at a discounted price vs the above general public (with a cap like probably 200L/mth?)
RON97+ (mainly premium car use) unsubsidised or a lower subsidy %

Can do...
just impose a reasonable limit in the card...
say your target subsidy is 20%
then max fuel per month is 300
contoh: so if u used up to 300, your 300 will be rebate to 240
exceeded amount will not be applied with 20% reduction
(like Maybank Amex now say 5x TP only for petrol below 500, similar algorithm would do, don think can't)

the other way round... prepaid...you can load the card with whatever pre-loaded amount.
and you are cap to use 300 max at a subsidised rate. exceeded and your subsequent refuel is normal rate...