When you are not in need to use that currency and buying it for whatever reason; take note that you are introducing another unknown or risk, that is to say, currency fluctuation into the mix.

To put it in a better context, let say you buy Aussie Dollar and that is because ten years down the line you will need to use that Aussie Dollars to pay your kid's uni fees in Aussie Dollar. That mean you are not introducing unnecessary risk.

If you buy saja-saja for fun, then you are introducing unnecessary risk. Add one more layer of kenot-eat-kenot-sleep factor.

Xuzen

Blow -water session #49

This is my 49th month of tracking my port.

Last month Algozen™ ver four M-o-M is +ve 2.00%. It was a good month.

Come come, market lets add oil! Gambatte!

Xuzen



This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 1 2020, 12:04 PM

My FI stands at 70%, hence my port is not as aggressive as yours.

The difference is I more pandai select fund than you.

I selected US + China and dumped REITs whereas you choose Asia-Pac + REITs.

Xuzen

I too am more cautious looking at US coz I use Std-Dev as the measurement of risk and US's Std-Dev has overtaken China's. Previously, it was the other way around. Concurrently, I have increased my China exposure whilst decreased my US exposure.

Previously was FI:US:China = 70:20:10, Now is 70:15:15

Xuzen

It was not always so defensive. I remembered the time before Trump came into the picture, where the Std-Dev of China & US funds were in the high single digit only. I recalled TA-Tech's Std-Dev was around 9.XX% and China's was 8.XX%. During those pre-Trump era I was 50 or 60% equity exposure.

I am personally holding Amanah Raya Syariah Trust as my FI component.

Xuzen

Hello to you too.

Ya ya betui betui betui betui

Unless you wanna play Pokemon: Gotta catch'em all!

Satu minggu bola dah kecut...

Wanna play daily swing? UTF is the wrong game. Main direct lah friend. Somemore, foreign mkt can play short & long.

Is like a someone wants to fight MMA style but entered into a Tai Chi push hand competition instead.

Xuzen

On the issue of using daily NAV to make decision to enter.

When one sees things with correct wisdom, seeing things as they really are: The investor is buying into the skill of the fund manager. We see performance over time. NAV is plainly a number strictly for transactional purpose.

Let's use a simile for smart and intelligent people may perhaps understand better with the use of a simile.

On such and such a date, the NAV of a particular UTF is RM 1.10. Let's say the fund manager decide to do a bonus issue of 10 units get one free. This means the NAV after the bonus issue becomes 1.10 x 10 / 11 = RM 1.00. Let assume someone who tracks daily NAV, he will immediately see a 10% drop, and suddenly he will be very keen to buy mistakenly thinking the UTF now is a bargain whereas nothing has changed except that there is a magical illusion mathematical manipulation by the fund manager.

There are many scientific parameters available to evaluate the performance of the fund manager, some which has been peer reviewed and won Nobel Prize for Economics; and watching the daily NAV is not one of the method.

Google keywords for Alpha-Jensen ratio & Modigliani ratio for some insights. Sharpe ratio is a good start as it is simple to understand.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 11 2020, 11:41 AM

For me, time is my friend. There is an old adage in investing that says, " It is not timing the market but rather time in market that determine winning outcome "

Mathematically speaking:

FV = PV.[ 1 + i ]^t

i = rate of return ( ROI ) and is a linear function of gain, whereas t = time, is an exponential function of gain. Now tell me, if given a choice, which parameter is more efficient in accumulating gain?

Hence the adage above is grounded in mathematical truth and is not mere speculation.

Xuzen


This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 11 2020, 02:17 PM

I sell household DIY products from a store. I know how to use the formula. Lulz.

p/s I read a lot of books on investing, attend courses and mix with friends who are in this game.

luv,

Xu

Cash rich pasar seller when investing in legit products will probably flagged and get enhanced due diligence process by institution.

Xuzen

A NAV chaser spotted here....

It is another good month this Aug 2020.

My liquid asset should be hitting the One M mark by next month, hope everything stay on course.

Xuzen

Liquid asset = movable asset = asset that can be liquidated immediately = includes unit trust.
One M =

Gold is looking attractive to me now. Next month will look to enter it.

During this long weekend, I shall visit my friend, Madam Zorra aka Crystal Ball woman Algozen™ ver four and consult. Some calculations are in store.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 29 2020, 11:45 AM

As I was tinkering with my portfolio optimization analysis aka Algozen™ ver four program, I have noticed some new trend.

Firstly, the Coefficient of Correlation of US and China fund has reached as high as 0.61 ( using Morningstar Asia data ). This was not the case prior. This means that US & China stock market movement has inched closer and provide less diversification than what was thought of previously.

The Corr-Coeff of US & Gold is only 0.08 and this can be said that Gold is a great diversification to US exposure based on current reading.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 30 2020, 02:52 PM

I have just Switched 100% of China to Gold and reduce 1/3 of US exposure to Gold. You may say I am taking profit from China.

Total amt into Gold is RM 50K.

For China, my profit is around 10% since April 2020 [ 4 mths holding ].

Xuzen

Previous = M'sia Corp Bond + China + US
Now = M'sia Corp Bond + Gold + US

Xuzen

1. Lazy, don't want the extra hassle of admin / paperwork to open account etc. Already using FSM platform.

2. Pay a nominal fee and let the fund manager do all the hassle and paper work on my behalf. Piggyback on their expertise. Fund manager = Grab driver, Me = Grab User, sit back relax and enjoy the ride until reach my desired destination.

Xuzen