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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ May 31 2017, 03:29 PM)
Algozen™ version four speaketh; listen well...(The values are now in MYR correlation).

I tried putting in various UTF(s) into Algozen™ and letting her run the numbers. Maximum per simulation run is ten UTFs. Anything more, is limited by the correlation coefficient parameters. 

The criteria for selecting UTFs for simulations are:

1) Good risk to reward ratio among peers.
2) They must have poor correlation among each other (meaning must be well diversified)

.........
The ports that I have run simulation gave the highest possible return to be 21% (100% TA-GTF) and the lowest possible return is 7% (100% Esther Bond). Hence the whole spectrum of return is from 7 to 21%. As expected the higher the return the higher the risk aka std - deviation. After running 12 times with various composition of portfolios, I find that the most risk optimal point is around the 10, 11, 12 and 13% point.

Let's take 13% as the expected return. In order to get 13% the composition of UTFs are as below.

KGF @ 15%
REITs @ 10%
TA-GTF @ 25%
Esther Bond @ 30%
RHB EMB @ 20%.

Std - deviation of this portfolio is 4.41% and the risk to reward ratio is 13/4.41 = 2.95.

Xuzen
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wow.... thumbup.gif seems like i just need to make some changes to get this portfolio....new to add in TA-GTF
wow,..the correlation is just so beautiful with this new port
wow,...if i can just have the heart to "throw away" some beloved funds like ponzi 1.0, EISC, india, greater china.....

xuzen, can i keep these just 2 of this funds at 5% each....PLEASE... cry.gif

KGF @ 15%
REITs @ 10%
TA-GTF @ 15%
Esther Bond @ 30%
RHB EMB @ 20%.
Greater China 5%
India 5%

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 31 2017, 04:32 PM


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SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ May 31 2017, 04:45 PM)
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hmm.gif I kind of lost the link to the iportfolio/snapshot.

do you happens to have it and can you please throw in zuxen's new port into it and see how it goes?

while waiting for Dasecret,...can someone iportfolio it?

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 31 2017, 11:09 PM
SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 11:08 PM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ May 31 2017, 11:01 PM)
Would be rebalancing/modifying my aunt's and my portfolio and hoping that my new portfolio delivers exceptional returns for the balance 2nd half of 2017 sweat.gif
If not, i would start ranting that FSM cheated me bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif  mad.gif  Joking.
But yeah, hoping my new portfolio would deliver returns!
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will you be shifting to zuxen's version 4 port recommendation?
if not, what are your current portfolio and allocation like?
SUSyklooi
post May 31 2017, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ May 31 2017, 11:26 PM)
I just started selling off/reducing a few funds and haven't completed buying what i wanted. Would get my new portfolio up by next Friday and then i shall post my before and after portfolio.
Would take Xuzen's recommendation into consideration.

Btw, I'm getting into KGF, was just wondering that if I'm just only able to invest in one; either KGF or KGF PRS (Just to get the 1k incentive, but the downside is that i can't take my cash out till i reach 55), which would be a better choice ?

I do understand that KGF's PRS is a combination of KGF 60%+ and Kenanga's Bond Fund 30%.
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if you are having consideration of zuxen's recommendation.......then try Amreit PRS for ease of calculation for KGF PRS has bond element in its thus the % might differ in calculation

btw, if you are not in a hurry to buy...wait for a few weeks (most probably end june ~ end July) there should be another round of FSM promo like usual......

This post has been edited by yklooi: May 31 2017, 11:41 PM
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Jun 1 2017, 08:51 AM)
.........
I think that iportfolio site died....
Use FSM's portfolio simulation function lor; but xuzen already indicated past returns and weighted volatility
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😥😥 too bad..
i remembered in iportfolio, there was a data table showing the port has how many number of positive months in a 12 months period....was trying to see how zuxen 's port faired
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Jun 1 2017, 09:13 AM)
Yeah, quite sad that the site died

Anyway, all these is rear view mirror analysis; while it's good to know, it really doesn't promise future returns
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Yes..that is true.....but with 30% in esther n 10% in selina plus another 20% in EM bond.....i think not much chances for the capital to be "lost" in the longer term....
Alot of defenders plus few well known strikers

Thinking of tweeking some to add on to that port......and start to accumulate TA GTF.....on next promo then slowly get changes done in preparation for 2018 portfolio composition

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jun 1 2017, 09:55 AM
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(Timmy365 @ Jun 1 2017, 02:56 PM)
Dear Xuzen sifu.
...............
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while waiting for his reply....may i suggest you read from afew pages back.......there he has come up with a very comfortable 5 funds portfolio that to me is very sound.....
Some few pages back he did mention his risk preference......
But bear in mind that your assume risk 8 may not be my assumed risk 8....
If you cannot managed to find that post abt the 5 funds port...tell us....i am sure he or others can help
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(gu~wak_zhai @ Jun 1 2017, 02:59 PM)
Newbie here, just started last month, my current holdings:

Affin Hwang Select Asia (Ex Japan) Opportunity Fund - 16.6%
CIMB-Principal Asia Pacific Dynamic Income Fund - 16.6%
Eastspring Investments Balanced Fund - 16.6%
RHB Emerging Markets Bond Fund - 50.0%

Trying to achieve a more balance portfolio here, now only dare to buy recommended funds.

Going for long term maybe 5 to 10 years. Would be happy if able to achieve >6% per annum.

Any sifus care to comment?
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Rhb em bond at 50%......the volatility of tis fund is higher than some EQ funds
SUSyklooi
post Jun 1 2017, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(Timmy365 @ Jun 1 2017, 03:55 PM)
Thank you for highlighting that for me smile.gif
Is this the one?

KGF @ 15%
REITs @ 10%
TA-GTF @ 25%
Esther Bond @ 30%
RHB EMB @ 20%.
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yes.
that is the latest one....
SUSyklooi
post Jun 2 2017, 09:00 AM

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I am still trying to do minimum tweek to zuxen's port....

I try again the x-ray.....

can some one tell me why the AHSEB has such a high correlation to TA GTF?
yes,...it is in MYR

btw, I don't feel comfortable to having TA GTF at suggested 25%.....I am planning to go at
10% TA GTF and 15% at EIGL

added
10% Ponzi 2.0

supplementary
5% India
5% EISC

well it is all in just planning ...still have 6 months to make changes /accumulation.



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SUSyklooi
post Jun 2 2017, 09:03 AM

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QUOTE(nvk @ Jun 2 2017, 08:47 AM)
Thank you for the replies.

Looking at the percentage, I do agree Manulife India is too high. That's why I'm trying to add something low risk to lower my aggressiveness.  smile.gif  to have better sleep at night.

I have heard a lot about KGF. What I don't really understand is that it's reliable but also rated as high risk? It's rated an 8.

I'm now learning to use the excel from page one to generate the country chart. What I like is to have exposure to different countries. But it's quite complicated for me  confused.gif
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hmm.gif I uneducated guess is because it is a single country focused fund
SUSyklooi
post Jun 2 2017, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Jun 2 2017, 05:53 PM)
May I know the duration of the data ?

Does it correspond to a period where both AHSEB and TAGTF have demonstrated low volatility ?
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no idea...
I keyed in the portfolio,
click X ray, then copy URL....paste url on new window then changed the USD to MYR
click enter
click generate PDF.....

pdf attached....


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Attached File  morning_star_report_2017a_port.pdf ( 123.12k ) Number of downloads: 59
SUSyklooi
post Jun 3 2017, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(Darkripper @ Jun 3 2017, 09:22 PM)
Hahaha, that's exactly my thought, BTW situ xuzen, what's the rationale this time?
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He is going to change his port composition to optimse on roi, risk return & correlation....he is putting his money on what he posted.

QUOTE(besiegetank @ Jun 3 2017, 09:24 PM)
I think those aiming for more aggresive style should still keep India. Even FSM still think India is attractive.
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Yes....but ..fsm suggested india to be in supplementary and not more than 10% as india mkts is volatile n it is a single country fund.....

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jun 3 2017, 09:46 PM
SUSyklooi
post Jun 4 2017, 06:26 PM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Jun 4 2017, 06:21 PM)
Top up as of June.

1)Switch all RHB AIF to RHB EMBF 5k+ with profits of 4. 86% since October 2016
2) Top up 2k into Esther Bond fund.
3) Entered 2k into KGF, I am still holding kapchai fund
4) Top up TA Global of 500 myr (still weary of tech Giants)

Total profit as of now
-6.76%

I am still holding Ponzi 2.0, Cimb Greater China and  Manulife India. I have a firm belief they will serve to prop up my returns.

Regards.
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hmm.gif been thinking too.....
I original planned to tweek zuxen's port to includes these supplement at 5% each....
but then.....realised if this 5% fund would to raise another 10% NAVs, if would just add 0.5%~1% in the port's returns....

maybe just for 'kicks" but...not aiming for impact on ROI then is ok....
SUSyklooi
post Jun 5 2017, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(Zero Correlation @ Jun 5 2017, 04:35 PM)
For ponzi 2.0, you need to pick the right fund name >> CIMB-Principal Asia Pacific Dynamic Inc
Not the MYR one, then you can get the correlation data
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thumbup.gif Thanks....i too clicked the wrong one i suppose....
now got it liao.

but still wondering why the AHSBF is 0.64 correlated to TA GTF?? rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jun 5 2017, 05:15 PM


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SUSyklooi
post Jun 5 2017, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jun 5 2017, 06:35 PM)
In lieu of missing Ponzi two corr - coeff input, I used RHB - AIF as a proxy since both of them have high correlation, Algozen™ ver four simulated and none of the port has RHB - AIF in it. This, I may conclude that if I were to put in Ponzi two UTF into the mix instead of RHB - AIF, the result will probably be the same with Ponzi two UTF as well.

Xuzen
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shocking.gif doh.gif
SUSyklooi
post Jun 7 2017, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(ganaesan @ Jun 7 2017, 12:20 PM)
That's the thing... Moreover, its new fund since 2013 only and SO FAR it rallied better than other marathon funds... e.g. kgf, dynamic income, kap chai..

But will this continue for coming next 3 years at least??  confused.gif  confused.gif  confused.gif

other sifu's stand??
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The Perils Of Forecasting And The Need For A Disciplined Investment Process
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...ss-31-May--8422
SUSyklooi
post Jun 7 2017, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Jun 7 2017, 01:18 PM)
True enough, it's mostly guesswork, but that's like saying medical diagnosis is mostly guesswork. It's like saying, you can't tell the future so you don't know whether you will be alive tomorrow. You can't tell the future so you don't know if the sun will rise tomorrow.

If I push the "add reply" button I don't know if it's going to be posted, since that is in the future.. right?
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Probability
How likely something is to happen.

Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html
SUSyklooi
post Jun 12 2017, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(acromax @ Jun 12 2017, 10:44 AM)
Anyone knows how fsm managed portfolio performance?
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the FSM MY managed portfolio is less than 2 weeks old.
but just for satisfy your curiousity....in less than 10 days it goes up by 0.6%

kaka23, here is the managed portfolio that i said i would share once i got it.....

seems like FSM MY team like to play pokemon ......
maybe they wanted it to be fully geo covered for me
well as long as it can performs,....who cares....



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SUSyklooi
post Jun 13 2017, 08:48 AM

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QUOTE(kl_123 @ Jun 13 2017, 08:43 AM)
TAGTech feeder fund drop ~5.1%
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really?
thanks for the input.....
will be selling some of my bond funds today to spare some ammo to shoot this TA GTF....
come on just a few % more .......over the next few days..... devil.gif

but have to wait for the TA Global Tech to publish it latest NAVs first....

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jun 13 2017, 08:55 AM

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