By Ben Levisohn

Stocks dropped today, though like yesterday it wasn’t much of a drop.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 2,260.96, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4% to 5,447.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 23.08 points, or 0.1%, to 19,918.88, leaving Dow 20,000 just 81.12 points away.

But maybe we can get there before year end? Cornerstone Macro’s Carter Worth looks at the performance of the S&P 500 during the last five trading days of the year and finds that they’re usually pretty good for the market:

As to how the remaining five (5) sessions of 2016 play out… the odds are high that they play out well. Indeed, the statistics relating to final-five-days-of-the-year performance are as follows for the S&P 500 since 1928:

Average return for the last 5 trading sessions of year: 114 bps, with a standard deviation of 186 bps.

Average return for all 5-day periods 1928 to 2016: 14.3 bps, with a standard deviation of 262 bps.

So… not only is there a higher-than-average return during the last 5 days (8-fold average return of 114 bps versus 14 bps), there is less variability around the average. In addition, the probability of the last 5 days of the year being positive are 77.3%, compared to a probability of 55.7% for any 5-day return.

Guild Investment’s Monty Guild and team embrace the holiday spirit:

Over the next few months, we believe, the U.S. economy will grow, and certain industries are poised for more rapid growth in the immediate future. We see no U.S. economic recession on the near horizon, and without a recession, it is hard to see the U.S. market having a major setback.

The major negative influence in world markets today remains the weak status of the European banking system, which could create a world recession if it implodes. On the other hand we see positive economic variables on the horizon for the U.S., including potentially lower taxes, less regulation, and enthusiasm from entrepreneurs to build businesses.

As long as we’re building on 2017′s gains.