Friends and fellow participants of Unit Trust Funds,
1) Today is Sunday, 15th of January 2017 afternoon and after taking a refreshing afternoon nap, my mind in now fresh to write something that I have been thinking on for a while.
2) This topic came about when some of you earlier was talking about volatility and return. We know that for the same degree of return, a unit trust fund that gives a higher volatility is worse for the final future value than another with lower volatility.
3) Now, let us take a look at the first column of a imaginary fund with a return of 10% per compounding period, or perhaps we can take that as per annual return. It starts off with MYR 1,000.00 as initial capital with no top up. Let's say this is a fixed income fund and we get a fixed return of 10% per annum with no volatility, meaning every year is the same ROI. In another word, this fund offers zero volatility / variance / standard deviation / risk.
4) The second and third column is similar an imaginary fund with increasing volatilty as we move towards the right. If you look at the final future value after the tenth year, the fund with the highest volatility has the lowest future value. This phenomenon is called variance drag. This is why, as illustrated, volatilty is bad for a fund and low volatilty is good. This is applicable to buy and hold style of investing or those who do DCA method of investing. Howeverm if you are those trader / speculator / dump and run type, then volatility is your friend and variance drag is of no concern to these type of investors.
Xuzen
P/s For the three imaginary unit trust fund, the simple average return are the same for each fund. The difference in final future value is due to how great the flucuation of the yearly ROI. The greater the flucuation, the lower the final future value.
Nice simulation. Thanks for sharing. Can't be any more clearer to avoid funds with poor risk:return ratio.