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> USD/MYR v5

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AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM)
Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
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bouncing within a range is very normal.

i think we need to watch a couple of weeks more to see a trend, if any.

.. $ index declined to 100.2x; last few days, $ softened against all major currencies.

.. SGD/RM still at 3.13; AUD/RM 3.32.

.. no info on whether bnm is still intervening or not.




cherroy
post Dec 8 2016, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
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In today investment environment, it is hard to assess and quantify.

Just like my previous example, if one has YTLreit, one has exposure to Aud, and indirectly hedge against RM (with high portion) with AUD/Aussie properties.

While if one invested in Starhill Global Reit in SGX in Sgd, one is indirectly has exposure back to RM (although it is small portion only) with Starhill in its portfolio.

While one put money in gold, one has hedge against RM with USD.

Although the gold investment is in RM and the gold investment is in local, and perceived as non-foreign asset, one indirectly has hedge in USD which is identical owning USD.



TOMEI-R
post Dec 8 2016, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:22 AM)
bouncing within a range is very normal.

i think we need to watch a couple of weeks more to see a trend, if any.

.. $ index declined to 100.2x; last few days, $ softened against all major currencies.

.. SGD/RM still at 3.13; AUD/RM 3.32.

.. no info on whether bnm is still intervening or not.
*
Yes, the market rates is hovering these 2 weeks around SDG $1 to Rm3.12-RM3.13 +-. Any hopes for it to bounce back up again? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by TOMEI-R: Dec 8 2016, 12:48 PM
limeuu
post Dec 8 2016, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 8 2016, 08:41 AM)
i know i asked this before...........

while those who invested outside heavily can pat theirselves on the back and be smug.....think of the rest who have not.

HOW much do you hedge your net worth in foreign assets  IF you are NOT MIGRATING?
*
Half....and comfortable with that level....still need to live and spend here, not migrating....

Going forward, if opportunities arise (ie periods of strong myr), will move more out....just need to keep enough for local spending....rest is cheap overseas holiday money....lol
celicaizpower
post Dec 8 2016, 12:55 PM

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8 December 2016:

1 US Dollar equals 4.43 Malaysian Ringgit...
100 Thai Baht equals 12.45 Malaysian Ringgit...

simply wow... i hope it goes down soon... these exchange rates are not healthy for us Malaysian travellers...
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 8 2016, 12:46 PM)
Yes, the market rates is hovering these 2 weeks around SDG $1 to Rm3.12-RM3.13 +-. Any hopes for it to bounce back up again?
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the way i look at it...

both sg and msia main trading partners are with each other and china, USA.

Given SG's way of managing the currency and not int rates like most countries, i would expect it to do what it has always done - follow the stronger $ more closely to keep import bills manageable as it imports everything it consumes, and can afford to do so with its vast fx reserves. But since it has strong trade links to Msia and china too, it cannot allow the SGD to rise too much if the RM and RMB falls against $.

So, it will be how you access the two biggies - USA and china, i.e. how the $ and RMB will play out.

in the near term, i doubt RM will rise against SGD with any significance.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 8 2016, 01:05 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(celicaizpower @ Dec 8 2016, 12:55 PM)
8 December 2016:
100 Thai Baht equals 12.45 Malaysian Ringgit...
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long time ago, rm1 = baht 11
2014 rm1 = baht 10
2016 rm1 = baht 8

ya, nothing wrong, only usd strong, other currencies also falling bad, all is speculators fault.
spiderman17
post Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:09 AM)
AVFAN and me had discussed before. I was ~20% 2 years ago. Now, not much improvement I think around ~30% only. Mainly because I have illiquid assets in ongoing business.

Not as much as I wish to. But I plan to achieve at least 50%-80% if possible. Leave some in malaysia as I think this is still the best country to live in
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 09:17 AM)
this kind of comment will be frowned upon by the power ones.
they only want rosy politically correct talk.
talk some more, he may get harassed/arrested.
and that's precisely the issues - non transparency, confidence.
me, about 40%, target  is 50%.
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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 8 2016, 12:47 PM)
Half....and comfortable with that level....still need to live and spend here, not migrating....

Going forward, if opportunities arise (ie periods of strong myr), will move more out....just need to keep enough for local spending....rest is cheap overseas holiday money....lol
*
I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.


prophetjul
post Dec 8 2016, 02:36 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM)
I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.
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Wow!

That's drastic action!

It's a bit more difficult if majority of one's assets is in properties.
TS wil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 8 2016, 01:20 PM)
long time ago, rm1 = baht 11
2014 rm1 = baht 10
2016 rm1 = baht 8

ya, nothing wrong, only usd strong, other currencies also falling bad, all is speculators fault.
*
They have nobody to blame but speculators
M not surprise they will blame karma later on
aspartame
post Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM

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I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
ILoveLalat.net
post Dec 8 2016, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(spiderman17 @ Dec 8 2016, 02:13 PM)
I started moving from 0% in 2012 to almost 80%. Exclusively USD exposure (no sgd, aud etc).
I think I went overboard since I'm planning to retire here. Now scaling back, targeting 50% max, and may also diversify out from usd.
*
You really got guts to do this. Especially at a time that things are quite unpredictable. flex.gif
nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 04:14 PM

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Malaysia’s foreign reserves under pressure in December, Q1 of 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...under-pressure/

Jomo: Ringgit’s fall also due to loss of confidence in govt bye.gif bruce.gif
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/j...confidence-govt

This post has been edited by nexona88: Dec 8 2016, 04:16 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 8 2016, 05:40 PM

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$ index <100, depr against all major currencies.

mayb due to russian attempts to dedollarize its financial system.

if rm is to gain, now is the time.
TS wil-i-am
post Dec 8 2016, 06:05 PM

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MYR appreciate gradually fr 4.4480 on 2/12 to 4.4290 today
I presume MYR is doing some soul searching now
TOMEI-R
post Dec 8 2016, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM)
I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
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I would disagree on that. Most tycoons and very rich people all have a lot of properties, businesses overseas. They even send their children overseas and help them settle down over there getting Citizenship over there. Ask our local vips and politicians and see where they send their children to? In short, most of the elite already know that the country and the economy is in the ruins long time ago and hence send their children to seek greener pastures overseas. Now don't get me wrong, I love this country and Im not being unpatriotic by saying such things but these are the bare facts. Only the common people like you and me are stuck here.
spiderman17
post Dec 8 2016, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 8 2016, 03:43 PM)
I think the absolute amount counts as well though obviously no one is going into details about their net worth here. What I mean is assuming your net worth is 100k and you have 100% invested in foreign assets compared to a person with 10mil net worth with 20% invested in foreign assets, then of course the person with 2mil invested overseas can say that what they have overseas is quite significant and can even allow him or his family to survive on foreign assets alone for quite sometime compared to the person with 100k overseas. I understand that to compare across individuals, percentage is the only metric suitable but in my opinion absolute amount is important too. The higher one's net worth especially if one has multiple properties, I think the lower one's foreign assets % is in practice. In short, I don't think there are many rich people with more than 30% of their net worth invested in foreign assets not counting those who has migrated or has plans to migrate or has dual residence.
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Yes, absolute amount is important...I'm just a small timer here. So it's easy for me to quickly shift my distribution percentages.
Besides, it's 100% liquid. I have very negligible non-liquid assets, so I don't consider them at all in weighing my exposure.
biggrin.gif

nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 06:48 PM

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7 Dec 2016 10:40 UTC - 8 Dec 2016 10:45 UTC
USD/MYR close: 4.43345 low: 4.41645 high: 4.43350

meanwhile BNM closing @ 4.4240
bbgoat
post Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 8 2016, 09:13 AM)
Seeing the rate over this few days, especially after the BNM announcement last Friday, I have a feeling that 4.4x is the support level for RM. When calm returns, RM might appreciate back to 4.0x

This has happened before last year. Panic selling makes RM went to ~4.5x. Then in the next few months, it appreciated back below 4.00
*
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x. thumbup.gif
nexona88
post Dec 8 2016, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 8 2016, 07:02 PM)
Agreed. My purchase history of USD, using TT:

Aug 2015: 3.96
Jan 2016: 4.45
Aug 2016: 4.04

I hope Jan 2017 it stable at current level or best still, go to 4.0x.  thumbup.gif
*
wonder if can ever reach Aug 2015 rate back rolleyes.gif sweat.gif unsure.gif yawn.gif

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