Below, I’ve listed seven reasons why I wouldn’t buy National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB) shares, right now.
But before we get into that, please note these two things:
1.This is my opinion only and, frankly, I could be wrong – NAB shares could soar from here
2.I don’t hold bank shares in my portfolio. Your personal situation – and shareholding – may require a different course of action to mine.
7 reasons why I wouldn’t buy National Australia Bank Ltd. shares
1.The economy is transitioning.
While this risk is not unique to NAB, economic theory suggests bank profits are not only related to growth in the economy but also highly leveraged to it. That means, if the economy enters a rough patch, NAB’s share price risk may be asymmetric.
2.Mining investment is slowing.
The mining boom is over. Indeed, capital has already been pulled from Australia at a rapid clip. It’s evident from the stalled projects and a falling Australian dollar. I believe a slowing mining sector could have a direct and indirect impact on NAB shares, over time.
3.Regulations and capital raisings are going to hurt.
The banking regulator (APRA) is beefing up its oversight of Australia’s big banks – and rightly so. While NAB’s current capital levels appear robust, if APRA continues its tougher stance on bank regulation, NAB’s returns (on a per share basis) may not track along as well as previously anticipated.
4.Bad debts are low.
Bank shares are cyclical. Therefore, the best time to buy them will be when bad debt charges are high, dividends are all but non-existent and uncertainty is forcing share prices lower.
http://www.fool.com.au/2016/02/23/7-reason...ank-ltd-shares/