it is the time of the year again..... last year was in Nov.
(just like the usual time of the month for the opposite sex)....
time for reflections after the few days of holiday break....

just noticed that my investment ROI is about 12%
just did a mental calculation.....if my investment portfolio were to increase 10% pa consecutively uninterrupted for another 6 1/2 years.....
my investment ROI is about 65 + 12 = 77%
which would mean a 10 yrs investment period...... an approximate IRR of about 6.5%??
realized that "dasecret" was right when he said, "mathematically" impossible to achieve my dream IRR of 8%

if I were to insist on IRR as a mean to see how my investment performed.....then I guess no amount of "GOOD" basket of diversified funds can help to get that......thus not fair / right / correct way of judging how my selected funds performed.

if I dun't look at IRR as a whole, should I look at M-O-M or Y-O-Y to see how my selections of funds in my portfolio performed?

thanks for responding....


Injecting new capital...
injected at wrong time & wrong place...could make the current IRR worst.

12 months rolling value....that is a good option..

past few days had been rethinking....
most probably,..kicking out some small cap funds to CMF.....
most probably,...
50% in Asia Pac thru Ponzi 1 & 2
30% in M'sia thru KGF and EISC
20% CMF......for Sailang and pull back..... thru timing the corrections and sell this 20% when gained 5%

Timing the corrections.... Are you feeling lucky! Punk

This post has been edited by yklooi: Sep 22 2016, 12:58 PM

Tried doing some "Creative Accounting"....simulation..
i moved out 20% of my funds money out.....
the IRR value and ROI values remains the same,...before and after.....

(should i try to have 2 data files? one is original and 1 is with abit of "creative accounting"?)
will try to add back the money later as "Capital injection" when the opportunity comes......to see if the IRR/ROI can go up or down...
as it had been mentioned before.....addition new large % of sum added in and if there is changes in ROI of this new capital....it can create "larger" effects on + ive IRR value....



This post has been edited by yklooi: Sep 22 2016, 04:48 PM

not sure if I did it correctly due to noob in accounting and IRR stuffs.....

was playing with the portfolio money....

used back old data...
12 Feb was the lowest IRR...
took abt 30% $$ out of investment (recorded as +)

in April put back the same value.....buy into Ponzi 1.0 (recorded as -)

July.....ROI and IRR increase > than if I were to stick to original plan of doing nothing...

(data need to be confirmed again.....)

This post has been edited by yklooi: Sep 22 2016, 07:00 PM


Attached thumbnail(s)

thanks for taking interest in this....

I was discussing about the need to do capital injection to try to raise the IRR....
my maths was trying to shows that, without actual capital injection and by just doing some moving around of funds, the IRR can moves.....
sort of refer to post# 480

"IF" Irr values can be "played" by that,.....then frequent traders "may" have a better performing IRR.

from you....
If I were you (with inital bad purchases and dismay IRR), I would look more into the year-to-year growth. If the yearly growth for the past recent years are satisfactory, then be happy with it - as this shows that you are on the right track.

from Dasecret....
Anyway, I think pink boss does his 12 months rolling returns to consider current CAGR instead of keep going back to the dark times and not see any improvements in the IRR. Perhaps you can do that too

OK,..will try the Y-O-Y.
just wondering if this method can be "played" out too.

yes...for shiok sendiri....in the end it is my total investment history of performance.....

but these words hold truth too....
from j.passing.by
If I were you (with inital bad purchases and dismay IRR), I would look more into the year-to-year growth. If the yearly growth for the past recent years are satisfactory, then be happy with it - as this shows that you are on the right track.

from Dasecret....
Anyway, I think pink boss does his 12 months rolling returns to consider current CAGR instead of keep going back to the dark times and not see any improvements in the IRR. Perhaps you can do that too

b'cos of past dismayed performance... no amount of good balanced portfolio can helps to alleviate the IRR.
which may lead to NOT focusing and rewarding the current performers...and taking non sensible risk....

if i don't monitor the "past" bad investment results, will looking at the Y-O-Y better?

ex...MAS has a history of under performances....should one take into the whole history from day 1 or should one judge the "new" current mgmt from inception?

with these and the revelation of pink.....

and this
the 5 kgs stone had been lifted from my chest.....
now i hope i can have the wisdom to see, plan, act and stay on a sensible diversified portfolio.

Just back for affinhwang mkts outlook presentation dinner.
Key take away
In the next 12 months, better in
EM (EM in Asia is better than EM of Europe or EM of Lat AM)
Indonesia….govt policies supportive of growth. IF Jokowi managed to win 2nd terms....lagi BAGUS
Thailand….Diminishing political risks
Phillipines….new govt stance supported by mkts

Asean region is still resilience

If wants to invest for very long terms…try INDONESIA

China’s Corporate debt is 170% of GDP……which are 1 of the reasons mentioned most of the time China mkt corrects……currently its mkts is up and up……has the 170% elephant disappeared?

Invest with the beliefs that FED will raise rate this year and next…….amid slowly. Mkts will remains volatile near and after the FED meetings.

Most central banks will keep lower rates and more investment thru infrastructure investment.

"IF" trump wins on 8 Nov......expects few months of mkts volatility that is worst than Brexit.

Early this year, when asked about his opinion on M’sia small cap space….he mentioned of the risks of small cap liquidity issues……I was noob about liquidity till Aug…..
Will I be smarter this time?
Will this punk be lucky this time?

This post has been edited by yklooi: Sep 24 2016, 12:06 AM

yes, that is why I guess he mentioned for the 1st few months.....mkts gonna reacts as they are not sure of what to happens....(b'cos he has been so Anti trades)

https://www.google.com/#q=trump+anti+trades

just like BREXIT...mkts reacts....

yes...maybe he is hinting...Golden Opportunity just like you.....

the question is should one reduce their holding in EQ to catch again later....

just like xuzen existed Europe just b4 Brexit vote?

This post has been edited by yklooi: Sep 24 2016, 09:48 AM

yes,...that could be a double edged sword....

it is a 50/50 gamble.....

will let the FM do the gambling for me...

I had enough for now on UTs gambling....beaten too many times

ah pek with smartphone noob here.....

when I noticed something nice that I wanted to share in LYN.....
i log into LYN on smartphone......
I clicked the CHOOSE FILE button.....
there was this CAMERA icon....
I clicked it & took a picture with it.....

but when I "add this...." or "add reply"....
it just goes to stand still mode......

anyone know the correct way to sent pic taken on smartphone to LYN?

This post has been edited by yklooi: Sep 25 2016, 10:32 AM

yes,
android Samsung phone.
in SETTING/APPLICATIONS/DEFAULT APPLICATIONS/
I access web by clicking internet icon so I click
INTERNET....UNDER PERMISSIONS....
"this application can access the following on your devise:
take pictures and videos" (is among the many that I can see stated there)

could it be LYN forum has a quota / jpeg file size limitation that limits pictures taken from smartphone and posted directly from phone?

thks....

can do all that in a 5" smartphone?
is there a more simple way where I can just snap and post it?

(else I may while concentrating & spend too much time on the phone and missed out some more good tips that I wanted to share in ex a presentation?)

thanks for the post...
i think i some how mixed them out sometimes during the journey...

How Currency-Hedged Funds Can Minimise Currency Risks November 1, 2013
We always encourage investors to diversify their portfolio globally but this means that investors will often be subject to currency risks. In this article, we introduce currency-hedged fund classes and how they can help investors minimise currency risks and sometimes even provide a yield premium.

http://fsm.hk/hk/main/research/viewHTML.tp...articleNo=7335#

Currency Risks And Hedging October 12, 2012
With regards to investment risk, investors are often focused on the price of an asset, but sometimes overlook currency risk, which can make a world of difference to one’s investment returns, especially in the context of today’s volatile currency markets.
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/resea...?articleNo=7445

just realized that after chasing it for about 9 mths.....

Vanguard,....now i am about to chase after you for the 3 pockets...and i wanted to have a safer SEX like what you mentioned earlier....

It is much better than mine....just go with it for 3 yrs.....it between now and then...if u dun like it...just tweak abit....there is no fix rules....ea persons needs n priority in investing mvay chage overtime.....
there was tis quote...It is not how much 1 can make in a good period but how much the portfolio can stay intack during the bad time that is the key.....
...

"IF" when market crash, you would also lose 10% more than your friend or not.
the answer is NO.

Then "IF" market booms, one would also not win 10% more than your friend or not
the answer is YES/NO?

if one is having RM 20 000 in a fund
waiting for some lowering of NAV to top in RM 500
That is 2.5% of value of that fund.

if the NAV lowered to the desired value, this 2.5% (RM 500) is well spend
but the RM 20 000 is not well invested.....The losses of the RM 20 000 is much more than that "gain" from the saving of this RM 500

should have get the RM 20 000 out will be a much better choice ....

that is the universal truth that all men knew...
Time the market to get "Cheaper" Navs....
just wondering how to get the cheapest NAVs?

This is what I "see"..."YES and NO"

buy at lower NAV?
YES,.....if I am focusing on just 1 fund that I wanted to buy.....

BUT this lower NAV cannot be used as a fixed comparison benchmark over a longer term of (1 year as most distribution are annually)
usually the NAVs moves in a range band width....after distribution it goes down then "normally" it moves up again..

thus if one were to buy lower and compared it to another that bought at higher NAV, it does not mean that the lower price time of entry is the winner.....if he did not take distribution in it.
well that is for the effect of distribution....thus cannot use longer termed historical NAV price movement as the "timing" of entry.

BUT,....if for occasional dips, YES those who bought at that time is at an advantage of "cheaper NAV"...as mathematically proven to be correct...

buy at lower NAV?
NO,...if I were looking at funds

as explained in post# 961 by Idyllrain and also in
FSM's article "Don't Let The High Fund Price Deter You "
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...-Apr-2012--2288

well, that is what i "see", but for many time, what i saw had been proven to be "mistakes" too

OT: Idyllrain...very long time no see your post,...welcome back...nice to drop by.