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 USD/MYR v4

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Sesshoumaru
post Oct 11 2016, 08:40 PM

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General sentiment of Brexit and US rate hikes is lingering in the market. Yesterday's RMB fix also was one of the lowest (I forgot since when).
MGS outflow.

Edit: Ah the fix news is above by one of the posters.

This post has been edited by Sesshoumaru: Oct 11 2016, 08:41 PM
Sesshoumaru
post Nov 11 2016, 08:23 PM

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Been a long day at work today. Now I can't share specifics on the happenings today (seems like there is some leak anyway, on a high-level basis), but I'll share on the mechanics of onshore and offshore USDMYR for everyone's benefit. Some of you surprisingly have a good rough understanding on the inner workings though.

The offshore USDMYR is a NDF - Non-deliverable Forward. This means there is no settlement between the 2 currencies and is only traded offshore (onshore banks/FI/residents are NOT allowed to trade in USDMYR NDFs). The NDFs are net-settled in USD, depending on the USDMYR fixing (VWAP of onshore trades from 8.00 a.m. to 3.00 p.m., published at 3.30 p.m.) 2 days before maturity date. The fixing used to be at 11.00 a.m., but due to high concentration of trades around that period caused heavy bias and thus BNM switched methodology.

Pure specs on USDMYR NDFs are not affected by any settlement challenges as any of their punts are just net settled in USD. However, the hedgers will.

Foreign/off-shore govvies (MGS) buyers often hedge their FX exposure via NDFs as they do not have access to onshore swaps. However, this only hedges their FX exposures - they still must come to the onshore market for settlement, as this allows actual deliveries of USD <---> MYR.

BNM dislike of the offshore USDMYR NDF market is understandable, as it runs independently and is not within their jurisdiction or control.
Sesshoumaru
post Dec 3 2016, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 3 2016, 08:25 AM)
Thanks bro for the link. I notice something unusual, but subtle in the guideline which need clarification....
Quite confusing. As #11 and #12 has a limit of RM1m, so that part is controlled by BNM and has a limit. But those fall under #10, I interpret it as if you don't have any loan, you CANNOT transfer money out of the country to invest. Previously there is no such restriction

Quasi capital control now ?
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This is just a problem due to information being strewn everywhere.

See this. http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_pres...ac=4316&lang=en
"Residents without domestic ringgit borrowing shall continue to enjoy flexibility of investing in foreign currency assets both onshore and abroad up to any amount"

Sesshoumaru
post Dec 3 2016, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 10:57 AM)
-snip-
No.

http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2016/faq_i...cial_market.pdf

See item 22.

So there won't be an immediate boost right of the bat with the existing balances, mandatory speaking anyways. Only if the corps decide to just liquidate all FC into MYR (voluntary) will the immediate shoring of reserves happen.

Edit: Some typos and additional info.

This post has been edited by Sesshoumaru: Dec 3 2016, 11:14 AM
Sesshoumaru
post Dec 3 2016, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 11:47 AM)
Bro,... if this is going to be voluntary, then I'm afraid not many will volunteer to convert back. These people/companies will most probably TT their funds OUT BY MONDAY. BNM should stop this TT-ing if they are sincere about wanting to strengthen the Ringgit for us !!!!!!!!!

BNM SHOULD BE SMART ENOUGH TO SEE THROUGH THIS !!!!!!!!!!![SIZE=7]

Don't let these big boys exporters TT out these proceeds !!!!!!!![SIZE=7]
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You think the banks won't perform their due d when sending out funds?

Look at the banks that didn't do its proper due d. What happened to them?

One would think they would've learned not to incur millions in fines.
Sesshoumaru
post Dec 3 2016, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2016, 04:35 PM)
My understanding so far...

It is about at anytime after dec5, not one year period.

According to item 51 in the FAQ, aggregate is rm1 mil for individual.

It means if u have rm500k loan outstanding, u r allowed to invest balance rm500k in foreign, whether local or abroad.

If u have rm1 mil or more in loan, not allowed at all.

But that is for new fx TOTAL from dec 5 onwards, what u already hv in fx now is fine.

No loan, free to do anything, local or abroad, anytime.

The motive behind is to stop individuals from borrowing in RM and put in FX.

In large nos., this can be very damaging, as seen in the tomyumgung crisis in 1997.
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Actually, how it works is that as long as you have any form of MYR borrowings regardless of amount, you are subjected to that MYR 1 mio limit. It is not calculated anything like what you've mentioned.

Now I'm no expert when it comes to individuals (I handle corps instead), but I believe there are exceptions to what qualifies as MYR borrowings. Credit card might be excluded, as well as housing/car loans (first 2 of those loans I think). The loaded forumers here might be able to give more solid sharing.
Sesshoumaru
post Dec 3 2016, 10:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2016, 07:13 PM)
to avoid confusion, can u explain a bit more what i said wasn't quite correct?

i think housing loan IS incl in the rm1 mil calc.

pls, do explain, i'm no expert either! biggrin.gif
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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 3 2016, 07:51 PM)
BNM don't calculate like that. It's any amount and any number of loan. As long as you have a loan be it only a RM10k car loan it is still consider as a loan.

They refer to Ccris as the records. If it shows you have loan, means your limit is RM1m

But in practice BNM give chansi as per my reply to Hansel above...
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Thanks for the correction. 1 each it is then.

AVFAN, so besides CC, 1 housing loan and 1 car loan....
-no other borrowings, free to invest
-any other borrowings, only 1k remaining = limit 1 mio
-any other borrowings even with 10 mio remaining = limit 1 mio

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