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 USD/MYR v4

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icemanfx
post Nov 23 2016, 08:23 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2016, 05:34 PM)
and the employer also one useless.. already know the CPI is not reflection to real situation, still try to take opportunity to the max  shakehead.gif  puke.gif
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Productivity lagging behind and increasing company overhead don't help on salary increment.

Basically, the tide has turned, there are new opportunities out there, why one want to swim against the tide?


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 23 2016, 08:29 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 24 2016, 12:16 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2016, 11:46 PM)
malaysia struggles to curb ringgits slide
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-strug...lide-1479803968
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Foreigners own a little more than half of Malaysia’s government bond market, according to data from HSBC.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-strug...lide-1479803968

This is revealing.

Guess liquidity in mgs will be an important indicator on myr movement.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 24 2016, 12:19 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 24 2016, 12:29 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 24 2016, 12:23 AM)
imagine all those foreigners withdraw..

GG lor  innocent.gif
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1/3 to 1/2 withdraw in a short period will be bad enough.

icemanfx
post Nov 24 2016, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 24 2016, 07:58 AM)
I dun think tis will happen as the yield is still attractive to them
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Let's see

QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 24 2016, 08:56 AM)
Maybe, after Fed hike, things will be more stable.
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Or the beginning of new trend.

icemanfx
post Nov 25 2016, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 25 2016, 10:14 AM)
Then the theory of ambiguity continues, and the lie-upon-lie predicament shows its ugly head again.
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For financial market to function efficiently, central bank integrity is critical. Historically, no one has ever doubt bnm integrity. Hope this hasn't change else it will be a huge price to pay.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 25 2016, 11:26 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 25 2016, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 25 2016, 05:01 PM)
seems like MYR is weaker for major currency..

every day become weaker & weaker.. later become banana money doh.gif
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Only if foreigners don't have confident in bnm.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 25 2016, 06:03 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 26 2016, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 26 2016, 01:04 PM)
“Malaysia and Turkey are classic example of countries whose reserve levels are falling to a critical level in comparison with the amount of their short-term external debt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...come-out-on-top
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If Bnm audit found local bank extend facility to a company that short term liability is higher than assets would receive a dress down.

Guess this is what they say "what goes around, comes around'.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 26 2016, 06:10 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 27 2016, 03:25 AM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Nov 27 2016, 02:00 AM)
Silencing the markets is not the same as calming them.

sum up very well. umno so used to silencing, thats what they good at.
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Silence could be deafening.

icemanfx
post Nov 27 2016, 10:18 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 27 2016, 04:42 PM)
If u buy local stuff, price will stay
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 27 2016, 04:50 PM)
If the input raw material/stuff in USD is small %, I blif the increase is negligible
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Besides palm oil, kangkong and water, how much necessity is produced locally? How much imported stuff e.g feed, fertilizer, etc goes into local food production?

icemanfx
post Nov 29 2016, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(Crovoseas @ Nov 29 2016, 01:26 PM)
icemanfx
post Dec 1 2016, 12:09 PM

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In zero sum game, any production cut by OPEC will benefit non OPEC production countries. Besides market price, OPEC doesn't have punishment power over cheating OPEC country. Like previous production cut agreement, this agreement will be short live.



icemanfx
post Dec 2 2016, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 2 2016, 09:14 AM)
that will take some special clandestine skill, doesn't it?! biggrin.gif
anyway, speculation is this bank has given up becos "can buy, cannot sell".
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Believe more banks especially U.S banks will follow.

icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 12:57 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 2 2016, 08:33 PM)
latest... will this shore up the RM or will be make it worse?

will need experts to comment...
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 2 2016, 09:02 PM)
Official guidelines issued by BNM on latest forex:-
http://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/2016/Suppl...ation_Rules.pdf
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Forcing exporter to convert 75% proceed automatically to myr is a form of capital control. This will encourage exporting companies to park proceed offshore and deter foreign investment to set up regional center or business here for export. In the long term, is detrimental to current account balance. Implying bnm is willing to sacrifice long term benefit for the short term stability i.e. is desperate.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 3 2016, 01:23 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 3 2016, 08:23 AM)
Sometimes gain , sometimes lose , not a big issue.
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Except palm oil, most raw materials are imported. Holding usd is a hedge for raw material purchase. Forex volatility or depreciation increase pricing risks, making export less competitive.

Believe bnm will implement more measure making changing from myr to usd more difficult.

icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 3 2016, 08:49 AM)
The purpose of forcing conversion is two fold. 1st.Discourage speculation because holding in USD after exporting and trying to time the conversion can be a form of speculation especially in excess of what is needed as working capital.  2nd is as stated to promote liquidity and depth ie some are buyers of ringgit and some are sellers. This is to promote onshore settlement of ringgit to replace the NDF. This is in line with their belief that offshore speculation is the real and only reason behind ringgit weakness and they are trying to shift all hedging and transactional activities onshore and in the process requires as much ringgit demand as possible. How else do you suggest they do it? Anything they do also got negative side one but if compared to alternative, this is the best way.
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Basically, bnm is running short of usd.

Bnm could increase mgs yield, bank interest rate to attract mgs foreign holders to stay.

QUOTE(Sesshoumaru @ Dec 3 2016, 08:53 AM)
This is just a problem due to information being strewn everywhere.

See this. http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_pres...ac=4316&lang=en
"Residents without domestic ringgit borrowing shall continue to enjoy flexibility of investing in foreign currency assets both onshore and abroad up to any amount"
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This measure is to prevent people to borrow myr to buy usd. Wonder how many company and individual is without domestic myr borrowing?


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 3 2016, 09:11 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 11:47 AM)
Bro,... if this is going to be voluntary, then I'm afraid not many will volunteer to convert back. These people/companies will most probably TT their funds OUT BY MONDAY. BNM should stop this TT-ing if they are sincere about wanting to strengthen the Ringgit for us !!!!!!!!!

BNM SHOULD BE SMART ENOUGH TO SEE THROUGH THIS !!!!!!!!!!![SIZE=7]

Don't let these big boys exporters TT out these proceeds !!!!!!!![SIZE=7]
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Beside palm oil, most other raw materials are imported. If myr keep depreciating, input/raw materials cost will be more expensive. It is in companies interest to hedge or buy raw materials in USD or forward (if in MYR).

Current myr crisis is the after shock of having sold too much mgs to foreigners and they are exiting. Penalizing export companies will deter foreign investment in this country and myr down trend will be extended.

icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 12:50 PM)
To yr first para, I am aware of it, but today, BNM is not seeing it this way anymore. They are in desperation mode (I think you said this too earlier) to stem the 'freefall' of the MYR. They need to solve the immediate problem first.

To yr second para,... O don't think foreigners holding too much of the Msian sovereign bonds is the ONLY reason for the MYR to die slowly. Deterring Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) is the last thing that I would want to worry about now. I think the gov't and BNM too agree with me on this. I would prefer to hold my MYR value now first, for good or for bad reasons,...
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MYR downtrend is likely to extend longer than most expected.

icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 01:49 PM

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BNM refrain for increasing mgs yield/bank interest rate may mean they are allowing inflation rate to rise.

icemanfx
post Dec 7 2016, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 7 2016, 10:10 AM)
If we take 8 Nov, here are the numbers :

1 year :

KLCI 1672.00 / 1663.82 = -0.49%
STI 2876.03 / 2820.24 = -1.94%
DJI 17730.51 / 18332.74 = 3.40%

MYR/SGD 3.0031 / 3.0237
MYR/USD 4.215 / 4.2017

The returns in RM terms :

KLCI -0.49%
STI -1.27%
DJIA 3.07%
5 year :

KLCI 1460.13 / 1663.82 = 13.95%
STI 2694.60 / 2820.24 = 4.66%
DJIA 12184.26 / 18332.74 = 50.46%

MYR/SGD 2.4344 / 3.0237
MYR/USD 3.1475 / 4.2017

The returns in RM terms :

KLCI 13.95%
STI 30.00%
DJIA 100.86%
1. DJI climbed close to 1000 points since election. STI climbed close to 150 points. While KLCI dropped close to 20 poiints.

2. Agreed. The returns from dividend will be more in forex since RM lao sai in 2015
Conclusion : for the recent years, long term investment in STI and DJIA is better than KLCI mainly because of RM devaluation. Gains in KLCI is offset by the lost in RM value. KLCI is not a good hedge against inflation compare to investing overseas in forex dollars
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100% gain in 5 years can't be complaining. Guess those kv property uuu herd members are regretting.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 7 2016, 10:53 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 7 2016, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 7 2016, 11:39 AM)
If we can cherry pick like cherroy said investing in export counters of KLCI, then I would rather cherry pick a property flipper 5 years ago. With zero down and DIBS, their investment of RM20k can give returns of RM200k upon VP

That is 1000% in 2-3 years. Do it 5 times over 5 year period, and you made RM2m with RM100k capital

But history is history. Not going to happen again in the next decades.
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Leveraged magnified return as well as losses. Unless exited the market, most are trapped.


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