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 USD/MYR v4

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Hansel
post Dec 3 2016, 11:47 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2016, 11:38 AM)
i think that's just an upbeat projection based on existing data.

possible all will convert voluntarily over time, possible little will.
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Bro,... if this is going to be voluntary, then I'm afraid not many will volunteer to convert back. These people/companies will most probably TT their funds OUT BY MONDAY. BNM should stop this TT-ing if they are sincere about wanting to strengthen the Ringgit for us !!!!!!!!!

BNM SHOULD BE SMART ENOUGH TO SEE THROUGH THIS !!!!!!!!!!![SIZE=7]

Don't let these big boys exporters TT out these proceeds !!!!!!!![SIZE=7]
nexona88
post Dec 3 2016, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 3 2016, 12:02 PM)
big players dont do TT la, they have other ways to channel out.
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I'm kinda blur here?
What other channel u talking about hmm.gif
Sesshoumaru
post Dec 3 2016, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 11:47 AM)
Bro,... if this is going to be voluntary, then I'm afraid not many will volunteer to convert back. These people/companies will most probably TT their funds OUT BY MONDAY. BNM should stop this TT-ing if they are sincere about wanting to strengthen the Ringgit for us !!!!!!!!!

BNM SHOULD BE SMART ENOUGH TO SEE THROUGH THIS !!!!!!!!!!![SIZE=7]

Don't let these big boys exporters TT out these proceeds !!!!!!!![SIZE=7]
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You think the banks won't perform their due d when sending out funds?

Look at the banks that didn't do its proper due d. What happened to them?

One would think they would've learned not to incur millions in fines.
Hansel
post Dec 3 2016, 12:18 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 3 2016, 12:02 PM)
big players dont do TT la, they have other ways to channel out.
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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 3 2016, 12:11 PM)
can use money changer, deposit rm to them in malaysia, they bankin $ into your oversea account.
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NO, bro,... if they are proper large exporting companies, they use proper Telegraphic Transfers,.. official wire transfers.

Only people like you and I use those methods you mentioned above. Come on,...

Then there is a final category of entities,... those with 'diplomatic needs', the ministers, diplomatic corps, etc,... they use Bank of International Settlement (BIS) mechanisms to move funds, hence, not subjected to BNM procedures, until today,... after the 1XXB thing !!!
icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 12:38 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 11:47 AM)
Bro,... if this is going to be voluntary, then I'm afraid not many will volunteer to convert back. These people/companies will most probably TT their funds OUT BY MONDAY. BNM should stop this TT-ing if they are sincere about wanting to strengthen the Ringgit for us !!!!!!!!!

BNM SHOULD BE SMART ENOUGH TO SEE THROUGH THIS !!!!!!!!!!![SIZE=7]

Don't let these big boys exporters TT out these proceeds !!!!!!!![SIZE=7]
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Beside palm oil, most other raw materials are imported. If myr keep depreciating, input/raw materials cost will be more expensive. It is in companies interest to hedge or buy raw materials in USD or forward (if in MYR).

Current myr crisis is the after shock of having sold too much mgs to foreigners and they are exiting. Penalizing export companies will deter foreign investment in this country and myr down trend will be extended.

TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2016, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 3 2016, 12:11 PM)
can use money changer, deposit rm to them in malaysia, they bankin $ into your oversea account.
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Take note tat Money Changers ("MC") r governed by MSB Act which is regulated by BNM unless those MC choose hawala brows.gif
Hansel
post Dec 3 2016, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 3 2016, 12:38 PM)
Beside palm oil, most other raw materials are imported. If myr keep depreciating, input/raw materials cost will be more expensive. It is in companies interest to hedge or buy raw materials in USD or forward (if in MYR).

Current myr crisis is the after shock of having sold too much mgs to foreigners and they are exiting. Penalizing export companies will deter foreign investment in this country and myr down trend will be extended.
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To yr first para, I am aware of it, but today, BNM is not seeing it this way anymore. They are in desperation mode (I think you said this too earlier) to stem the 'freefall' of the MYR. They need to solve the immediate problem first.

To yr second para,... O don't think foreigners holding too much of the Msian sovereign bonds is the ONLY reason for the MYR to die slowly. Deterring Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) is the last thing that I would want to worry about now. I think the gov't and BNM too agree with me on this. I would prefer to hold my MYR value now first, for good or for bad reasons,...
Ramjade
post Dec 3 2016, 01:03 PM

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I am lost here. So moral of the story individual like us cannot TT money out/harder to TT out?
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 12:50 PM)
To yr first para, I am aware of it, but today, BNM is not seeing it this way anymore. They are in desperation mode (I think you said this too earlier) to stem the 'freefall' of the MYR. They need to solve the immediate problem first.

To yr second para,... O don't think foreigners holding too much of the Msian sovereign bonds is the ONLY reason for the MYR to die slowly. Deterring Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) is the last thing that I would want to worry about now. I think the gov't and BNM too agree with me on this. I would prefer to hold my MYR value now first, for good or for bad reasons,...
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desperation it is.

what is the objective here?

overriding objective must be to boost the RM, and urgently.

other effects and consequences seems parked aside for now.

won't use monetary policy tools - opr, srr.

won't use fiscal measures either - no change in tax rates, little change in budget spending.

so, there u go - use "force", i.e. cap controls.

if this measure does not work well, we may see new and/or alleviated forms of cap control.

we should watch how trade and current account balances start to evolve from now on with those new measures on exporters and FX.



while msia's position is no as bad as that in turkey, there are stark similarities - borrow, consume, construction.

QUOTE
In its heyday, years before the 2009 global financial crisis as well as in the ensuing years, when the United States and Europe pursued liquidity expansion to battle the crisis, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) enjoyed abundant inflows of foreign capital, with an annual average of nearly $38 billion for the past 14 years.
Those resources, however, were used mostly toward domestic demand, financing consumer loans and sectors that bring in no foreign exchange gains, such as construction.
Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/...l#ixzz4RkTOg1gd



TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2016, 01:18 PM

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IMO, not all exporters will b affected by the latest ruling to convert 75% of their proceeds into MYR immediately

In fact, a lot of 'smart' exporters wud have opened FCA outside M'sia dy for the receipt of proceeds

For future Invoices (wef 3/12/16 onwards), they can specify pls credit payment into FCA maintained outside M'sia

In respect of issued Invoices (prior to 2/12/2016), they can easily nego with clients to redirect the proceeds into external FCA instead of internal FCA. Having said tat, the exporters need to give some 'discount' on the proceeds to clients so tat it's a win-win situation
icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 12:50 PM)
To yr first para, I am aware of it, but today, BNM is not seeing it this way anymore. They are in desperation mode (I think you said this too earlier) to stem the 'freefall' of the MYR. They need to solve the immediate problem first.

To yr second para,... O don't think foreigners holding too much of the Msian sovereign bonds is the ONLY reason for the MYR to die slowly. Deterring Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) is the last thing that I would want to worry about now. I think the gov't and BNM too agree with me on this. I would prefer to hold my MYR value now first, for good or for bad reasons,...
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MYR downtrend is likely to extend longer than most expected.

Hansel
post Dec 3 2016, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 10:57 AM)
I did think of the above tactic too, with regards to exporting companies, until I came across the following excerpts. In fact, I recalled somewhere that is is not legal to park proceeds in overseas financial institutions after collecting payments from overseas customers.

" At the moment, exporters are required to bring back their proceeds into Malaysia within three months of completing a transaction. However they are allowed to hold the proceeds in foreign currencies. "


Meaning, previously,... exporting companies are allowed to park their proceeds in the foreign currencies that they collected their payments in, ie no need to convert back into the RM. This proceeds are to be kept in local FCAs - Foreign Currency Accounts, be it in the USD, AUD, etc,...When kept in local FCAs, BNM will still 'have control' over this money.

As of yesterday, and effective from Monday onwards, BNM has imposed an additional ruling onto the money kept in the FCAs :-

" Among the measures are that exporters are to convert 75% of their proceeds into ringgit effective Monday. "

Hence, mathematically, 75% of the FCA amounts will be CONVERTED into the RM NEXT WEEK !  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif , indirectly, buying the Ringgit and selling the foreign currencies, especially the USD !!! What is the boost here then ? According to calculations by BNM :-

" The amount held by exporters in foreign currencies is estimated to be closer to RM90bil. At current exchange rate of dollar and ringgit, the gradual conversion of the export proceeds could result in Bank Negara’s reserves increasing by more than US$18bil (based on an exchange rate of RM4.44 to the dollar). "

Adding USD 18Bil to our current reserves of USD 96Bil is adding 20% strength onto the Ringgit, ie, again, mathematically, the Ringgit should strengthen by 20% against the major foreign currencies by end of next week.  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif

And what is the early effect seen ????????????

" Bank Negara’s measures were immediately felt in the offshore market. For the first time in recent weeks, the ringgit strengthened against the US dollar in the offshore market closing at RM4.44 yesterday evening. In the domestic market, the ringgit closed at RM4.45 against the dollar, weakening marginally. "

rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif

Any opinions, forummers ??

Edited : Sorry, forummers, forgot to add the link of my source,... lest you guys think I made up this story : http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...nd-for-ringgit/
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:18 PM)
IMO, not all exporters will b affected by the latest ruling to convert 75% of their proceeds into MYR immediately

In fact, a lot of 'smart' exporters wud have opened FCA outside M'sia dy for the receipt of proceeds

For future Invoices (wef 3/12/16 onwards), they can specify pls credit payment into FCA maintained outside M'sia

In respect of issued Invoices (prior to 2/12/2016), they can easily nego with clients to redirect the proceeds into external FCA instead of internal FCA. Having said tat, the exporters need to give some 'discount' on the proceeds to clients so tat it's a win-win situation
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Bro,... not true ! Based on the docs by BNM, it is otherwise. Please see my colored comments above.

All proceeds from exports must be brought back to Msia within THREE MONTHS ! But of course, as we all know, procedures are only as good as how well they enforce it,.......
AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:18 PM)
IMO, not all exporters will b affected by the latest ruling to convert 75% of their proceeds into MYR immediately

In fact, a lot of 'smart' exporters wud have opened FCA outside M'sia dy for the receipt of proceeds

For future Invoices (wef 3/12/16 onwards), they can specify pls credit payment into FCA maintained outside M'sia

In respect of issued Invoices (prior to 2/12/2016), they can easily nego with clients to redirect the proceeds into external FCA instead of internal FCA. Having said tat, the exporters need to give some 'discount' on the proceeds to clients so tat it's a win-win situation
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this is an interesting "loophole".

but i doubt bnm will be stupid enough to allow that, i.e. physical goods going out, but no matching revenues into the country.

kena fine la! biggrin.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2016, 01:32 PM

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Went to Maybank tis morning on the pretext to open new FCA for individual

The officer said tat new FCA can b open unless there is supporting docs. Otherwise, can't open as it's subject to their HQ n BNM approval

It seems BNM have imposed stringent controls on the opening of new FCA for individual to deter outflow

Gud news for existing FCA holders but bad news for those who intend to open FCA now

AVFAN
post Dec 3 2016, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:32 PM)
Went to Maybank tis morning on the pretext to open new FCA for individual

The officer said tat new FCA can b open unless there is supporting docs. Otherwise, can't open as it's subject to their HQ n BNM approval

It seems BNM have imposed stringent controls on the opening of new FCA for individual to deter outflow

Gud news for existing FCA holders but bad news for those who intend to open FCA now
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what kind of FCA?

dual currency, foreign equities?
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2016, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2016, 01:29 PM)
this is an interesting "loophole".

but i doubt bnm will be stupid enough to allow that, i.e. physical goods going out, but no matching revenues into the country.

kena fine la! biggrin.gif
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There r a lot of excuse to keep those proceeds outside
1 of them is 'my client insist for us (i.e. exporter) to furnish performance bond for each transaction' brows.gif

This post has been edited by wil-i-am: Dec 3 2016, 01:44 PM
Hansel
post Dec 3 2016, 01:46 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:32 PM)
Went to Maybank tis morning on the pretext to open new FCA for individual

The officer said tat new FCA can b open unless there is supporting docs. Otherwise, can't open as it's subject to their HQ n BNM approval

It seems BNM have imposed stringent controls on the opening of new FCA for individual to deter outflow

Gud news for existing FCA holders but bad news for those who intend to open FCA now
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hmm.gif .. well,... door is closing,... don't worry, maybe better like this,.. can try harder to open accounts in Singapore,.... why want to open in Msia ? See what happens to those who park their funds in foreign currencies in Msia, as in export companies ??? Now, must convert back to MYR....
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 3 2016, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 3 2016, 01:34 PM)
what kind of FCA?

dual currency, foreign equities?
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Nope
Just a basic FCA without any objective
icemanfx
post Dec 3 2016, 01:49 PM

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BNM refrain for increasing mgs yield/bank interest rate may mean they are allowing inflation rate to rise.

Hansel
post Dec 3 2016, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 3 2016, 01:39 PM)
There r a lot of excuse to keep those proceeds outside
1 of them is 'my client insist for us (i.e. exporter) to furnish performance bond for each transaction'  brows.gif
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Yes, that's right. There are lots of reasons to park overseas. But ; they must apply from BNM before they can do so. They must give those reasons now,....more headache to do business in Msia.

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