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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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pub_yu
post Jun 10 2022, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jun 10 2022, 08:41 PM)
Your chance is here. highest inflation rate in 40 years. It's going to be pretty big tonight i guess.
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8.6% (actual) vs 8.3% (expect)

having said that, core inflation seemed peak.

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pub_yu
post Jun 10 2022, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(umboy @ Jun 10 2022, 11:06 PM)
Wish i have exchange more usd
Now usd is all time high
So expensive
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just do it, there's no better time than now
pub_yu
post Jun 13 2022, 01:21 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Jun 12 2022, 05:45 PM)
Another 15% from the present.  laugh.gif
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More like a slow boiling water type of downtrend I reckon hmm.gif Unless a trigger event that will speed up the crippling effect
pub_yu
post Jun 13 2022, 06:39 PM

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Anyway, this is an eventful week.

Tuesday - PPI
Wednesday - Retail Sales + FOMC Rates Decision
Thursday - Jobless claim + BoE (UK) Rates Decision
Friday - Powell speech + EU CPI

brows.gif brows.gif brows.gif brows.gif


pub_yu
post Jun 13 2022, 08:49 PM

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Yeah but kinda too much in a short span of time, gonna play some bounce before a larger rejection rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 14 2022, 10:29 AM

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Can add SOXS there brows.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 14 2022, 04:26 PM

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It's like almost certain rates is going up 75 bps. It would be a surprise if it's 100 bps. Looking forward. cool2.gif cool2.gif cool2.gif

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pub_yu
post Jun 16 2022, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 16 2022, 05:23 PM)
US pre-market red. so gotta see what'll happen @ 9:30

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Should be gap down then sideways waiting for tomorrow's speech?

Also, we have jobless claim at 8.30pm brows.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 17 2022, 04:22 PM

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user posted image


A 50% down would be around the low of covid drool.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 17 2022, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Jun 17 2022, 04:28 PM)
anyone care to share an elliott wave analysis of the index?
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user posted image

Like this ok ? simply draw but meeting the basic rules of elliott wave laugh.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 21 2022, 12:23 PM

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seems like everyone having good timing! drool.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 22 2022, 09:32 AM

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Just a bear market rally, it will rip off soon biggrin.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 22 2022, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(thkent91 @ Jun 21 2022, 05:04 PM)
Mind enlighten me, what's wrong with DCA?

Assuming you have rm100k, and earning 5k monthly and having free cash flow of 2k per month. It's okay to set Rm1k per month to DCA in fund or shares to ride the wave.

The problem with DCA is having not enough of fund left to DCA when the market reaches the lowest point. But with proper planning and budgeting, it can be avoided.
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Nothing wrong and depending on the securities you are holding. Get out or stop doing it when you know it's not right, i.e. would you still DCA PLTON/ARKK/TDOC knowing the tightening or covid theme has ended?

On the other hand, if it's index fund such as VOO/SPY, they could be a better choice considering the past 100 years performance. But you have to watch the macro environment where you might be averaging for 2 to 3 years and dont see any green in your portfolio, thus, the opportunity cost situation arises. Maybe your money is working harder by parking them at SOXL drool.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 22 2022, 04:13 PM

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UK inflation + underground strikes icon_question.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 24 2022, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Jun 24 2022, 05:07 PM)
Thank you for this important info. Trader is definitely different from investors. They trade for a living it is their full-time job and DCA can indeed be a not suitable instrument for them. To them stocks/ETF are means to earn monies so they will use many strategies. Options, CFD (contract for difference), shorting etc and many other instrument with the basic aim to make monies. But for investors who hold full-time jobs, I doubt we use such strategies a lot as our full-time job take up so much energy and time the last we want is to go into all those strategies.

Actually sometimes I wonder for traders why make your life so hard use so many strategies to earn monies? Can just go Genting casino play big small or other table games faster monies correct?  biggrin.gif
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I think you meant those "traders" as gamblers. Mindful of the diff between gambler and trader tongue.gif
pub_yu
post Jun 27 2022, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Jun 27 2022, 06:49 PM)
This strategy come both ways. Huat yes 1 year shake leg but confirm 100%? if sway no huat means how? Wait so long accumulate so long sure firepower a lot cheong and miss target then the remaining 1 year eat what? Bread and water? Such strategy is not for everyone. This kind of strategy to me is like go Genting casino play big small one time settle why wait so long?
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No huat then look for another setup lor, get laid at night also at least do 2 shots, why limit yourself when calculated risks are considered laugh.gif


pub_yu
post Jul 6 2022, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(criticalbomb @ Jul 2 2022, 06:30 PM)
Why you should consider short oil price.

My reason as US Fed rising interest rate,inflation should be peak at April 2022 and demand will be start slow down.

10 Year TIPS Yield (Expected Inflation)
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Other commodity price already drop as show as below.

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Logically,inflation should be go along with oil price.Both are correspondence.Chart as below

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Oil price still at high price level compare to other commodity,i believe got huge fortune if we short it.
I using small position to buy SCO ETF,my predicting oil price will drop below USD70 in second half year.

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Thank for reading.
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If you referring to US CPI index, then Energy only contribute to about 8% of the total index, to be more specific, gas/fuel is about 4-5%

Higher weights are coming from Shelter a.k.a house/rental about 30% and Food (13%). Rising interest rate is to fight the house price imho, that's demand-pull inflation part

For cost-push inflation, i.e. the Energy part, for the current environment, better to watch out the supply chain development than the impact from interest rate

Having said that, a more favourable oil price would likely scale down the inflation rate to circa 5-6%~ if other part having status quo

pub_yu
post Jul 8 2022, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jul 7 2022, 11:24 PM)
Calm before the storm next week?

šŸ‘€šŸ¤”
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...k-pain-is-ahead

Already having lots of bets on it laugh.gif
pub_yu
post Jul 8 2022, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(criticalbomb @ Jul 7 2022, 06:58 PM)
From my observation on US market,let me share some of my thought.

As we know,market going haywire downtrend
Start from Bond>>Stock>>Crypto>>Currency>>and last commodity.

Bull just ended,i believe recession is coming.
How seriousness upcoming recession is still a question Mark?

As my portfolio in second half year:

Short position on commodity:Oil and Gold
Reason:Both still at history high price

Long position: US Government bonds
Reason:Bond ETF already dropping significant low to 5 year low.
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Bond yield coming down should be relating to flight to security coupled with the worsening situation in EU, this can be evidenced with spiking DXY.
pub_yu
post Jul 8 2022, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Jul 8 2022, 06:01 PM)
I have many paper losses since started investing end of last year when US stocks were at their peak.

Then another mistake I did was buying Google when it was high at 2.8k this year March. Should waited a bit longer first.

Lesson learnt. Will just DCA small amount and diversified after this.

For those paper losses will keep hold since Iā€™m investing long term anyway.

Right now really hard to see if ETF or stocks prices can drop even lower. Hope no more la. If really earning reports are terrible for companies then likely can drop more.
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Bro, hope is not a strategy tongue.gif

Well, latest unemployment data don't look that bad, which kind of provides a good foundation for FED to increase the rates. It looks to me only tech firms are downsizing, which kinda make sense considering most of the cheap money from QE were injecting into those high growth co.

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