Powell has confirm that asset purchases will stop on march and rate will rise through his live testimony and also confirming on inflations risk.

Market should be reacting soon i guess.

ah my bad... i was thinking no not overheated yet... can still overheat some more...

but yes is overheating...

The last tightening cycle ended up with a crash in end 2018, with S&P500 down about -20% from peak to bottom.

The Fed bailed out the market by reversing the interest rate policy n stopped QT.

However, the macro environment was very different. Inflation was low and Fed balance sheet was not as gigantic as it is now. I don't think Fed is in position to jump in so early to save the market nowadays.

Before that was the tightening cycle that ended with the 2008 crash. That's about 50% down of the S&P from peak to bottom.

You mean inflation?  I think they'll wait for next week data.. for May numbers.
I think it will still be high (above that 8%).  It is because the bulk of it is the energy cost (ie. Oil).
The price at the pumps are still very high and the summer driving/travel seasons just got started in US.

If inflation remains high, likely will be another 0.5% hike in June and in Aug another 0.5%, and continue on till Oil prices comes back down below $100 level.

I think Market will get another 10% discount for each 0.5% hike. 

The calm before the storm again?

Seems like it is already calculated in the stock price?

🤔

Next week is FOMC meeting on Tues/Wed.. we know 75bps coming for sure but not sure about full 100bps.

Either they're going to ramp it up before the meeting and then SELL after the meeting.

Or..

They kinda melt it down now... and after next week, they start BUYING on the day itself.. and SELL the next day.

It's opex day tomorrow, so I think the people in control of the machines will likely keep it around here to melt off the premiums.

Those i see all green...

Ze fook. Suddenly, bounce back?

👀

People are betting on cooling inflation with a possible soft landing and fed pivot.

I think it could go either way, so neutral positioning for me. No bear no bull until a clear direction is seen.

Need to see bad news is good news sentiment can win fundamental earnings season or not.

People are betting on cooling inflation with a possible soft landing and fed pivot.

I think it could go either way, so neutral positioning for me. No bear no bull until a clear direction is seen.

Need to see bad news is good news sentiment can win fundamental earnings season or not.

can't turn back time  so for me will just hold on DCA for time being. Money getting smaller too with all the inflation going on around us.

building up my emergency funds for time being, in case lose job later due to recession incoming.

next year looks like another roller coaster ride.. as long the below signs persists 

1. Ukraine war not stopping - both sides stubborn continue to shoot each other.
2. US inflation - due to Ukraine war and too much money for past 2 years causing high inflation now.
3. Fed might increase interest rate up to 1% every few mths, and will continue all through next year as long no. 2 no improvement.
4. OPEC not helping with Saudi now siding with Russia to cut oil production. Resulting in high oil prices causing even higher inflation.

end of this year no need see d.. all doom and gloom for stock market. Everywhere all red now, can't escape.

volatility is a good thing