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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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ozak
post Apr 27 2021, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Apr 27 2021, 09:42 AM)
US stock finally fully recovered? Some may say sell in May and run away? Personally I not intention to sell and run... already in bloodbath for 2 months don’t think it will be worse than this in May
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For long, who care.

This week probably green as many big company earning report. Tsla, AAPL, Googl etc. But as usual, sell the news.

There is some uncertainty still looming.

Pandemic coming again. Market and recover might be too early

Biden gain tax.

Chips shortage slow down the tech sector.

But retailer will gain during summer holiday.
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 30 2021, 08:35 PM

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https://www.gmo.com/asia/research-library/c...nd-em-ex-china/

QUOTE
China-only or a Regional Mandate?

Grouping works best when the components within the groups have high correlations to each other and low correlations to members of the other groups. A natural question with a “China-only” strategy is whether it should include other countries such as Korea and Taiwan. These two countries are similar to China in their above-average exposure to the consumer tech space and their leverage to global growth. They also have strong trade links with China and are geographically proximate. Countering the above supports for inclusion is the fact that China has a massive domestic market whereas Korea and Taiwan are far more export-oriented. Furthermore, while China’s economy is huge, incomes on a per capita basis are a fraction of those in Korea and Taiwan.10

As investors, we can measure the net effect of all the above through a study of correlations. Correlations of China with Korea and Taiwan have fluctuated around 0.7. Correlations of China with other major countries are generally lower, but still range from 0.4 to 0.6. At the very least, this suggests that there isn’t an incontrovertible case for an active manager to include Korea and Taiwan in his or her China mandate.
The Case for Top-down Is Even Stronger in EM ex-China than in EM

The ability to add alpha through top-down country or sector allocation decisions is a clear advantage in EM investing. Emerging markets have demonstrated on many occasions that local economic forces have more impact on individual stock prices than they do in developed countries. At GMO, we reflect this belief in our EM equity portfolios by incorporating country and sector specific signals in our models and by giving country and sector allocation a greater weight than stock selection in our process.

And this becomes particularly beneficial when the stock selection dimension shrinks. Neither quantitative nor fundamental stock pickers will welcome a drop of 40% in the size of their opportunity set. A top-down approach, on the other hand, will lose just 1 of 27 on the country dimension and nothing along the sector dimension.

We use simulations to illustrate this. All the GMO EM equity portfolios typically allocate around 60% of their weight to country and sector allocation and around 40% to stock selection. Removing Chinese stocks should impact our EM portfolios by about 40% (proportion of EM stocks that are Chinese) of about 40% (weight of stock selection in our process), i.e., by roughly 16%. We should therefore expect an EM ex-China simulation to closely match an EM simulation. And that’s exactly what we find. The incorporation of top-down allocation allows us to transform an opportunity set hit of ~40% to a far more manageable decrease of ~16%. Exhibit 2 presents the similarity in annual alphas (versus their respective benchmarks) across the two simulations of our quantitative value strategy.


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zacknistelrooy
post May 3 2021, 08:11 PM

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No longer the most hated bull market.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-cant...ket-11619947800
QUOTE
Americans are all in on the stock market.

Individual investors are holding more stocks than ever before as major indexes climb to fresh highs. They are also upping the ante by borrowing to magnify their bets or increasingly buying on small dips in the market.

Stockholdings among U.S. households increased to 41% of their total financial assets in April, the highest level on record. That is according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Federal Reserve data going back to 1952 that includes 401(k) retirement accounts. JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who analyzed the data, attributed the elevated allocations to appreciating share prices alongside stock purchases.
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yok70
post May 4 2021, 07:38 AM

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I am still confused about how to calculate capital gain tax for stocks. Is it by sold price minus current average bought price?


lee82gx
post May 4 2021, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ May 4 2021, 07:38 AM)
I am still confused about how to calculate capital gain tax for stocks. Is it by sold price minus current average bought price?
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Sold price minus actual lot buy price, not average buy price. Then if less than 1 year, short term capital gains. If more than 1 year, long term capital gains.

There is a popular technique of assessing just before the 1 year and selling the losers to lock in the loss and reduce the overall capital gains tax if any. Then you can buy back later after the tax reporting done.
zacknistelrooy
post May 4 2021, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ May 4 2021, 07:38 AM)
I am still confused about how to calculate capital gain tax for stocks. Is it by sold price minus current average bought price?
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https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/tools/c...ost-basis-15831

https://www.tdameritrade.com/education/taxe...-a-tax-lot.html

For the above, some of the new brokerages do not give that option and with a few wrong moves it could well be a big problem for those that file taxes.
CSW1990
post May 4 2021, 10:52 PM

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Bloodbath tonight.. just the beginning?
no6
post May 4 2021, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ May 4 2021, 10:52 PM)
Bloodbath tonight.. just the beginning?
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some said it's shopping time
ozak
post May 5 2021, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE
Bargain hunters step in after Yellen sparks global stocks sell-off

European markets recovered from global sell-off on Wednesday morning, as investors decided not to focus too much on US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen's suggestion that interest rates soon rise.

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) opened up 0.6% on Wednesday after closing in the red in the previous session. The DAX (^GDAXI) was up 0.8% in Frankfurt and the CAC 40 (^FCHI) rose half a percent in Paris.

Hugo Boss (BOSS.DE) rose over 3% in Germany after predicting that sales would double in the second quarter.

Challenger bank Virgin Money UK (VMUK.L) slumped 7% in London after reporting half-year results. Income dropped 6% but profits nearly quadrupled thanks to much lower credit impairment charges. Analysts at Jefferies said there was a "marked absence of mortgage balance growth" when compared to rivals.

Stock markets around the world had sold-off on Tuesday afternoon after Janet Yellen warned interest rates in the US may have to rise to stop the US economy "overheating".

"It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat," the former US Federal Reserve chair told an event hosted by The Atlantic magazine.

Yellen walked back her comments later on Tuesday, saying she appreciated the independence of the Fed and didn't see inflation becoming a major problem, according to Reuters.

But the initial words revived global fears about looming runaway inflation and led to a sharp sell-off for US stocks. The tech sector was hit particularly hard.

"Yellen’s comments took a lot of froth out of the markets," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Avatrade.

The sell-off spooked international investors. Asian markets were caught up in the wave of selling overnight — Japan's Nikkei (^N225) fell 0.8%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (^HSI) closed down 0.6%, and the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was down 0.8%.

"When markets start to struggle to move higher on good news, as we saw last week, it usually doesn’t take too long before they rollover and head lower, which appears to be what happened yesterday," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.

As with Europe, US markets looked set to stage a mild recovery on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Dow futures (YM=F) were 0.2% higher in early trade, while Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were up 0.1%.

"We do see some bargain hunters stepping in today," said Aslam.


SOS
yehlai
post May 5 2021, 05:41 PM

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Today NYSE holiday? dont see pre market open
ozak
post May 5 2021, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ May 5 2021, 05:41 PM)
Today NYSE holiday? dont see pre market open
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running normal.
zacknistelrooy
post May 6 2021, 07:59 PM

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...r?sref=lSuy1ocu

QUOTE
The ever-shrinking global stock market is no more.

Thanks to record issuance, the SPAC boom and the pandemic-fueled collapse in buybacks, the supply of equities across the developed world has turned positive for the first time in a decade, according to Sanford C. Bernstein. At $273 billion in the 12 months through the end of March, the hand-wringing over the de-equitization trends of the post-financial crisis era is well and truly over.

What started as a rush to shore up balance sheets during the Covid crisis has morphed into a spree of deals to tap relentless investor appetite for a market defying historic valuations. From Coinbase Global Inc. and Deliveroo Plc to celebrity blank-check firms, initial and secondary offerings jumped to a record $208 billion in the 13 weeks to April 9, Ned Davis Research data show.


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thxxht
post May 6 2021, 08:38 PM

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looks like all the hedgefund not wanting to buy in this market
yok70
post May 7 2021, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(lee82gx @ May 4 2021, 08:08 AM)
Sold price minus actual lot buy price, not average buy price. Then if less than 1 year, short term capital gains. If more than 1 year, long term capital gains.

There is a popular technique of assessing just before the 1 year and selling the losers to lock in the loss and reduce the overall capital gains tax if any. Then you can buy back later after the tax reporting done.
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Thanks! notworthy.gif

So I assume the priority goes with the older stocks. Say I bought 100 shares in 2010 and 200 shares in 2021. When i sold 150 shares today, the math will goes with 100 shares (2010) + 50 shares (2021). Correct?

And regarding the selling losers before reporting tax, that's interesting. So before tax reporting time, US market should see some sell down sentiment on losers. laugh.gif
yok70
post May 7 2021, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(zacknistelrooy @ May 4 2021, 08:02 PM)
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/tools/c...ost-basis-15831

https://www.tdameritrade.com/education/taxe...-a-tax-lot.html

For the above, some of the new brokerages do not give that option and with a few wrong moves it could well be a big problem for those that file taxes.
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I can't access the above two links. I think because I'm not tdamritrade client.

This post has been edited by yok70: May 7 2021, 09:10 PM
lee82gx
post May 8 2021, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ May 7 2021, 09:08 PM)
Thanks!  notworthy.gif

So I assume the priority goes with the older stocks. Say I bought 100 shares in 2010 and 200 shares in 2021. When i sold 150 shares today, the math will goes with 100 shares (2010) + 50 shares (2021). Correct?

And regarding the selling losers before reporting tax, that's interesting. So before tax reporting time, US market should see some sell down sentiment on losers.  laugh.gif
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Every lot you buy is individually listed in your account with date and price paid. At time of sale you can choose which lot(s). Then applicable (long or short term) capital gain tax will be applied (I guess) to deduct your proceeds.

You do realize Malaysians filling in the w8 Ben form as non resident aliens with no tax treaty is not subject to capital gains tax right?

The realising of losses for tax, is by purchase date and applicable year. There is no fixed season. If you bought in Dec 2020, your time limit for realising short term loss is also Dec 2021 for the purpose of tax reporting all in April 2022. So no, people don't all sell in April or May.
ozak
post May 8 2021, 10:00 AM

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QUOTE(lee82gx @ May 8 2021, 09:45 AM)
Every lot you buy is individually listed in your account with date and price paid. At time of sale you can choose which lot(s). Then applicable (long or short term) capital gain tax will be applied (I guess) to deduct your proceeds.

You do realize Malaysians filling in the w8 Ben form as non resident aliens with no tax treaty is not subject to capital gains tax right?

The realising of losses for tax, is by purchase date and applicable year. There is no fixed season. If you bought in Dec 2020, your time limit for realising short term loss is also Dec 2021 for the purpose of tax reporting all in April 2022. So no, people don't all sell in April or May.
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24% tax if the form didn’t submit till end of this yrs.

Just submit last 2 weeks.
lee82gx
post May 8 2021, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ May 8 2021, 10:00 AM)
24% tax if the form didn’t submit till end of this yrs.

Just submit last 2 weeks.
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well it pays to submit the forms. cool2.gif
and keep it updated.
Raymond_ACCA
post May 11 2021, 04:44 PM

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Let’s see if PLTR can go back to $9.xx..

Chinese stocks also hit hard recently. Slowly load up the boat. Have to start selling crypto to put to stocks already.
thxxht
post May 11 2021, 05:00 PM

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when buying the dip goes deeper, fuuu this bloodbath gonna last for a few months i think, time to break out the piggy bank

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