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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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AVFAN
post May 5 2017, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ May 5 2017, 01:10 AM)
oil bears are the strongest bears around for now... laugh.gif
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since last night...

QUOTE
Malaysia's clogged oil shipping lanes underscore failure to reduce glut
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia...c-idUSKBN18107J


oil fell another 2% today after 5% last night.

then...


QUOTE
Both benchmarks trimmed losses after Saudi Arabia's OPEC Governor Adeeb Al-Aama told Reuters OPEC and non-OPEC nations were close to agreeing a deal on supply cuts.

"Based on today's data, there's a growing conviction that a six-month extension may be needed to rebalance the market, but the length of the extension is not firm yet," the Saudi official said.

OPEC sources said on Thursday OPEC was likely to extend cuts when it meets on May 25 but said a deeper cut was unlikely. OPEC and non-OPEC states initially agreed to cut 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first six months of 2017.

Brent traded volumes on Thursday reached an all-time high of nearly 542,000 contracts suggesting hedge funds had accelerated cuts in their long positions.

"It is now-or-never for oil bulls," said U.S. commodity analysis firm The Schork Report. "They either put up a defense here or risk further emboldening the bears for a run at the $40 threshold (for WTI)."

AVFAN
post May 15 2017, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 15 2017, 10:42 PM)
Hey guys, Oil (WTI) spiked after Opec and Russian agreed on continued production cuts till next year..
now back to to the higher end of 45-49 range.

It may go higher but I'm taking some profits here. Leave a bit on the table and see how high it can go.
May rebuy back in if it can fill back that gap at 47.xx

If it can continue to break that $50 ceiling, then will be more bullish, more to add later.

Last week, more rigs added. It's putting an anchor to the price.
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u should! biggrin.gif

between now and may 25, i think it can go either way... 51 or 47.
AVFAN
post May 18 2017, 12:37 AM

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i like to see dow shed another 500 pts before i go back in. biggrin.gif

oil...increasing uncertainty, more volatility ahead of opec may 25 meet.

current price, there is really little reason why some of them will agree/comply with extended cuts.

i'll look for entry points to go short. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post May 18 2017, 09:56 AM

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will need another "crisis" somewhere to push it down another 500 pts! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 18 2017, 09:57 AM
AVFAN
post May 18 2017, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ May 18 2017, 09:42 PM)
rebounding? could you just broke that 2350?  laugh.gif
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patience, will come... biggrin.gif

some small crisis in brazil...
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/18/this-brazil...al-scandal.html
AVFAN
post May 19 2017, 10:22 PM

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trump dump fades... rally again!

crude... does not look like going 47 but 51.

getting some xle and oih... after a long break! tongue.gif
AVFAN
post May 19 2017, 11:32 PM

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QUOTE(helo @ May 19 2017, 10:35 PM)
hi, i am a newbie here, interactive broker is charging usd10 permonth if without activities, may i know how much initial money needed to startup an investment in stock market?

cuz usd10 x 12 = usd120= myr 520

ib minimum deposit for below 25yrs old is ard myr13000

lets say i'm lucky enuf to get 20% return per year.

13,000 x 20% = 2600

520/2600 x 100% = 20%

20 percent of my return will be given to ib, do you think this is a great deal?

how much money do u guys think u need to have before starting an investment?

i am just a fresh graduate... just started working not even a month yet...
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here:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3396549/+500#top
AVFAN
post May 25 2017, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 25 2017, 11:08 AM)
Opec is going to announce their decision tomorrow.
I think at $51-$52, it may be all baked in..

Are we ready to sell into this? 

Possible DWT play...  biggrin.gif
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yep, stay alert.

if opec agrees on more than the expected +6 months cut, it may go to 54.

short of that, 52 is probably tops.
AVFAN
post May 25 2017, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE
OPEC extends production cuts by 9 months: Delegate 
2 Hours Ago | 03:29

Oil prices fell sharply on Thursday after an OPEC delegate said the oil producer group had agreed to extend cuts in production by nine months to March 2018.

That disappointed some investors, who had hoped that OPEC might reduce output even further to drain a global glut that has depressed markets for almost three years.


biggrin.gif

AVFAN
post Jun 2 2017, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(LivingLife @ Jun 2 2017, 08:59 AM)
Hi all sifus here,

I am currently holding company shares (listed in NYSE) and will be leaving the company soon.
I am not very familiar with shares/stocks, could anyone advise what is the procedure if i doesn't want to sell my share back and prefer to keep it?

Thank you in advance.
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talk to yr HR dept, they can tell u.

then talk to the banks/brokers, see which one can help u transfer to own account.

no short cut, u need to face-to-face see/talk to them as yr case may have certain clauses, restrictions to yr employer's share plan.
AVFAN
post Jun 2 2017, 05:46 PM

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crude...

hedge funds are now shorting like hell, teasing opec/russia can do nothing.

while putting more and more $ in tech stocks like amazon and google.



BUT... we know they can U turn anytime too.

so, we watch if OPEC will have emergency meeting or just let it be....
AVFAN
post Jun 5 2017, 01:38 PM

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crude... been doing major WWW patterns.

just when u think it will fall further, here comes something.

QUOTE
Live: Oil prices rise as Arab nations round on Qatar over terror
Several Middle East countries, including Gulf states Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, as well as Egypt, have severed diplomatic ties with Qatar. They have cited the need to protect their states from the "dangers of terrorism and extremism."
Oil prices have risen on the heightened tension.

AVFAN
post Jun 5 2017, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jun 5 2017, 01:57 PM)
i guess that those crude related persons and nations will use some news to defend their price sunce they camt do much to halt the slide. these crude people are getting more irrelevant. global economic landscape should change.
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probability on another "major" war on terror has increased due to a wave of killings in paris and london in the last year.

if that happens, maybe not so much about oil but dow/s&p/nasdaq that's "due for a correction"? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 13 2017, 11:41 PM

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oil/energy bouncing around...

one hour, saudi says cut supply... next hour, opec production has increased...

now waiting for weekly api/eia data.

hard to feel where it is going.

just holding some xle/oih, do nothing else...
AVFAN
post Jun 20 2017, 01:33 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 20 2017, 12:58 AM)
The non-OPEC producers are producing like crazy. So, any cuts by OPEC almost seems nothing to them.
Oil prices now are back to the same level as if OPEC didn't make any announcement in November.

Since then, non-OPEC producers like US/Canada have increased a lot of rigs. Inventory still quite high.
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"$60-70 by 2017" now becomes "$40-50" for the rest of the decade". laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 20 2017, 11:12 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 20 2017, 10:50 PM)
Wow.. overnight, another flush down. 42.xx.

I think it won't be long now, we'll see $40.

Anyone here still riding bear share: DWT?  Almost double from its initial launch..  biggrin.gif
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libya, nigeria incr output.

opec all silent.

north america rig count still rising.

china, india demand slowing.

talking of it going below 40 now.

barring some major event, it will probably slide below 40 and stay there for a while.

stay away from oil! biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 22 2017, 12:37 AM

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oil continues freefall...

bear territory now, <40 looking imminent.

AVFAN
post Jun 22 2017, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 22 2017, 01:34 AM)
ringgit can go "new high" then....maybe breakout 4.50... cool2.gif
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oil price-rm relationship tends to breakdown when oil price is too low or too high.

so... i think not much impact at 40 or so... 4.50 will come only with other major development.

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 22 2017, 02:12 AM)
Anyway, it's at $42 now. .. I think buyers will step in when it is at $40.xx
Watch for this level. Just another -$2 more.
If it breaks, there was also $38-$39 where last bulls defensive line last August.
A lot of bulls missed this run and was hoping for revisit to this area.
Do they dare to come back in?   hmm.gif
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think so too.

as it is, there is only very poor sentiment, nothing bright at all.

hedge funds are still shorting, i believe.

and will keep doing that until some major event happens.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 22 2017, 10:36 AM
AVFAN
post Jun 22 2017, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 22 2017, 11:41 PM)
Following on update on the shale break even price:
"For the (Bakken shale), wells completed in 2016-2017, wellhead break-evens average around $38 per barrel," said consultancy Rystad Energy, which specializes in exploration and production."
Source:
http://news.abs-cbn.com/business/06/22/17/...efend-oil-price
So, I guess that's probably the PUT price as well. If anything lower that $38, I think the bears will turn to bulls.
Breakeven is probably not what they want to do. Shale producers also want higher prices, because shale producers want profits.
If it dives under $40, and stay there, more rigs will shutdown (which means OPEC wins), not profitable..
then with lower supply, price will surge.
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which means if wti goes near 40, rig count should no longer increase but start to decrease.

we will be witness! biggrin.gif


i remember reading somewhere a year ago or so that petronas breakeven is about $45.

if true, it is about breakeven now with brent at 45.
AVFAN
post Jun 24 2017, 01:05 AM

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BREAKING: US oil rigs rise for record 23rd straight week to 758, Baker Hughes says


but still getting good support at $43.

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