Wow... just less than 1 hr to go before general market closes, UWTI being pummeled by bears.
It looks like it will likely head back to low 21/22 by this week, which could mean good news for DWTI here.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 12 2016, 03:07 AM

Oil services sector in sweet spot.. hence, that's the reason, we may not see XLE/OIH falls much eventho
Crude price may fall.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/don-t-pa...-183729522.html

That's only one thing to do... Buy if it dips!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 12 2016, 06:51 AM

Gap up play tonight..

Yup... they gap it up, suck people in and sell into the rally.

But, I think $44.50-$45.50 support should hold support here with the market at this all time high.

The only thing to fear is usually there is a sudden black swan event in the next few days to bring down the entire market, with the media cooking up another similar horror story like Brexit.

My eyes deceiving me..

I went out for a while, and it came back roaring to 46.65?

Wow.. danger zone if u play today.
Can get whack both ways.

Sometimes, I think those numbers (API and EIA) do not matter much but rather cause the kneel jerk reaction
and push prices towards the extreme side of the range if they cross over a technical line.

Right now, we're still in this mid-term range here: 44.50 to 51.50

But, since we're at the low 45 range here for crude and general market at highs, I think if the general market pulls back, crude could likely test that floor and if more bears pile in, that 44.x floor can collapse.
So, better put a tight stop here.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 13 2016, 11:19 PM

Nicely done!

Anyway, thanks for the heads up on SZO but it is difficult to see that chart.
On the other hand, DWTI despite its leverage move for inverse crude, its chart is forming a nice nice saucer-like shape and moving up on the far right side. It looks bullish and readying for another push to 90-100 level.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 13 2016, 11:45 PM

Got spammed....

Can we short sell this business?

I see another bounce off the 44.5x level here.. perhaps double bottom??

Yeah.. of course they do but I don't think they went in buy back their oil like that just to support the market from collapsing below that number.

All they need to do is just to say the words 'cut production', and this Oil market will rally to the moon.

Perhaps do not even need to act on it.. just say 'maybe we're thinking about cutting back xx', the bulls will jump back in as if it will definitely happen.

You know why? It is just like how in early part of this year, when OPEC and Russians were planning to talk about "freezing" production at the current level (not even cut.. just maintain only) but the talks collapsed with no agreement. Oil rallied from the lows of $26 till this level with no confirmation on what they actually did or did not do.

So far, in reality NONE of them has any production cut at all... how the heck did the market even justify the price at this level, right? All talk only, but the bulls got very excited already.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 14 2016, 04:59 AM

Cash out XLE here at 69.50.. just another lucky catch.. will wait to see if it can attempt to break higher than Tuesday high. Yet again, yesterday was another one of those gap-to-fill play.

Despite oil pulling back to the 45.xxl, I'm surprise how bullish the Oil companies stocks (inside XLE/OIH holdings) has become. They seem to be diverging away from the crude price.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 14 2016, 10:38 PM

Not sure about superb but better than 6 months ago or perhaps stablized already after so many deferred projects and cost cut backs.

Also, the majors producers inside the XLE holdigns - most have nice dividends higher than the 10 yr yield. So, they're perceived to be safe - meaning the producers will unlikely to cut them despite declining revenue from lower crude price. The institutional investors are buying them on dips and hope for turn around sometimes in the future (probably a few years later).

On the fundamentals, right now, most of these oil producers stocks are not cheap anymore in terms of value, the historical PE was like 16-18 level and now - their PE at is around 25-35 (after the declined revenues for the past few quarters). If earnings continue to slump and cannot catch up.. I think we will see collapse in stock prices again.

We're waiting for another black swan event.

Well, it's Friday.. I don't think the oil traders will bet on any big move tonight unless they know something going
to happen next week that may spike it up.

$45-$46.50 should be good range to trade for now.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 15 2016, 11:32 PM

Looks like Oil went back up to high 46.xx.. then whacked again when US market opens.
Still holding the $45 level here. Gotta to watch this level here. If the lows hold,
I think it maybe under accumulation here..

So far.. all is calm..and sunny, no storm, not even rain. A very light breeze only.

I think that's why the bulls are enjoying today. Bears are still hiding. Only small cubs out to play and
they ran back into their cave.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 19 2016, 02:18 AM

NFLX got a -13% haircut after hours. Opportunity for bounce play tonight...

Nice indeed. GOOG.

I think AAPL also did quite good this month from the lows. It was such a lagger the previous month.

Tonight..the price range is getting smaller and smaller. All being squeezed.

I think crude may already roll over to Aug for the front month trading.
Yahoo still thinks the spot price is 44.xx ?? Not sure if this is right.