Yesterday, after the EIA report, the selling was immediate.
Oil drops to 45.xx.

Oil in danger zone again (or opportunity) because of the range: 45.xx- 49.xx

So, playing a little here with a tight stop.

Buy Buy Buy!!

What a run.. not sure why suddenly XLE spiked almost 3% but I'm out for the weekend!

You're right, Nasdaq getting killed... AAPL drop almost 5%.

50ma here.. time to pick your entry.

I think next week, ,we'll go back down a bit..

But, tonight, good enough.


Good pull back for AAPL! It's been a long time since I seen AAPL being munched away.

Tech stocks still being sold off today.. but XLE and UWT are doing good.
Rotation still going on..

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 12 2017, 09:50 PM

Tech stocks recovering... at least it begun after the sold at open yesterday.
Time to sell more Puts and see if this will work by Friday.

Wish me luck..

Despite the pull back from two days ago, AAPL still up 30% year to date.
I think every dips will be bought regardless.

Same goes for FB.

Nervously still holding on the short PUTs for QQQ.
Hopefully, can stay above 138 by Friday closing.
Two more trading sessions to go.

Oil koyak... back to 45, horrible API and EIA number..

General market pretty strong... all caught up with tech now. Tech is the lagger now.
Almost seems like they've shifted money from tech to both SP500 and Dow only.

The non-OPEC producers are producing like crazy. So, any cuts by OPEC almost seems nothing to them.
Oil prices now are back to the same level as if OPEC didn't make any announcement in November.

Since then, non-OPEC producers like US/Canada have increased a lot of rigs. Inventory still quite high.

There are bad and good news.

Bad - low energy prices = energy companies earnings will be also depressed. So, may not be a good time to
own them at this time. The lower it goes, more smaller companies may go into debt because operation cost is going to be
greater than what they can make from pumping oil. Smaller producer countries that depend on Oil revenue will see major setback.
We'll see another re-play scenario when a bottle of mineral water is more expensive than oil.


Good news - as consumer, we should be getting cheap petrol if the world market is flush with abundant oil.

Wow.. overnight, another flush down. 42.xx.

I think it won't be long now, we'll see $40.

Anyone here still riding bear share: DWT? Almost double from its initial launch..

In that case, more upside for DWT.
Unless, another one of the geo-political events..like war or pipelines blowing up.

Just late last year, when just a small talk of OPEC cuts, oil surge like crazy.
Now, with the cuts in place and extension will next year, oil continues to drop.

I think @ $16 a barrel, they would be losing money because the oilers staff are making on average $50/hr.
They need to pump 3x the amt of barrel of oil fund the operating cost for each hour of labor.

For each barrel they put on the market, they will further drive down the prices.

Why? Normally Ringgit will fall when crude falls too. Right?

Anyway, it's at $42 now. .. I think buyers will step in when it is at $40.xx
Watch for this level. Just another -$2 more.


If it breaks, there was also $38-$39 where last bulls defensive line last August.
A lot of bulls missed this run and was hoping for revisit to this area.
Do they dare to come back in?

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 22 2017, 02:12 AM

Following on update on the shale break even price:


"For the (Bakken shale), wells completed in 2016-2017, wellhead break-evens average around $38 per barrel," said consultancy Rystad Energy, which specializes in exploration and production."

Source:
http://news.abs-cbn.com/business/06/22/17/...efend-oil-price


So, I guess that's probably the PUT price as well. If anything lower that $38, I think the bears will turn to bulls.

Breakeven is probably not what they want to do. Shale producers also want higher prices, because shale producers want profits.
If it dives under $40, and stay there, more rigs will shutdown (which means OPEC wins), not profitable..
then with lower supply, price will surge.

That's means.. for every barrel of oil Petronas selling is like work with no profit.
Definitely not good. Petronas shares may fall again.

Oil been creeping back up $1~$2 these two days. Almost $44 again.

Don't play OTC or pink sheets. Very low liquidity.. and can easily get manipulated by the big boys.