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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Nov 16 2021, 10:27 PM

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U.S. Retail Sales Jump by Most Since March, Topping Forecasts

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...pping-forecasts

QUOTE
U.S. retail sales rose in October for a third month, signaling households continue to spend even with the fastest inflation in decades.

The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, following an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September, Commerce Department figures showed Tuesday. Excluding gas and motor vehicles, sales gained 1.4% in October. The figures aren’t adjusted for price changes.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 1.4% advance in overall retail sales. Stock futures wavered while the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated and the dollar was little changed.

The broad-based gain in spending highlights how elevated savings and rising wages have helped Americans sustain a robust pace of merchandise spending. Though total retail sales are well-above pre-pandemic levels, a recent inflation-driven collapse in consumer sentiment risks a future tempering in demand.

U.S. prices are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years as businesses pass on growing labor and input costs to customers, but it’s hard to tell just how much that’s impacting demand since the figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending data for October will be released next week.

zacknistelrooy
post Nov 17 2021, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 17 2021, 12:21 AM)
Of course it jumps.  doh.gif

People are buying and hoarding as if the factories are not making any more stuff during pandemic.

The inflation numbers that just came in last month also signified this problem.
They are raising prices and blamed it on supply chains or logistics.

This feedback loop probably will go on for a while and it affects everyone globally including China where stuff are made.

IMO, US households got too much junk already. They need to cut back and taper down and let this mad consumerism
behavior die down.
*
Yup

Like you said can be seen in the chart below:

user posted image


Game on for Q1 and Q2 2022 since there is a delay in passing price increases.


zacknistelrooy
post Nov 20 2021, 05:41 PM

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Sweetgreen shares surge 76% in salad chain’s stock market debut

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/sweetgreen-...k-exchange.html

QUOTE
Shares of salad chain Sweetgreen closed up 76% Thursday afternoon, surging in the company’s public market debut.

The stock opened at $52 a share, giving the company a market value of more than $5.5 billion. The company priced its initial public offering at $28 a share Wednesday evening, above its marketed range of $23 to $25 per share. Sweetgreen sold 13 million shares, raising $364 million for the company.

The stock is trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “SG.”

Founded in 2006, Sweetgreen has found a loyal customer base with its menu of customizable salads and warm bowls that appeal to consumers looking for healthy, convenient options. The chain has also leaned into technology, pushing its customers to order their salads online to cut down on lines inside restaurants. More than two-thirds of its revenue comes from digital sales.

“We like to say we want to build the McDonald’s of our generation,” said co-founder and CEO Jonathan Neman on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

In the fiscal year ended Dec. 27, Sweetgreen reported a net loss of $141.2 million on revenue of $220.6 million, according to its prospectus. The chain’s same-store sales shrank 26% during that time after climbing 15% in the prior fiscal year.

This year, the chain has rebounded from pandemic lows. Same-store sales have risen 21%, as of Sept. 26. Its losses narrowed to $86.9 million from a loss of $100.2 million in the year-ago period.


People taught crypto was something but don't worry because the stock market has it beat.
zacknistelrooy
post Jan 23 2022, 01:08 AM

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Speculative/growth stocks have been getting hit since last quarter of 2021.

Check Affirm or Sea or Roblox.

and then you have this:

user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 2 2022, 06:09 PM

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Rate hikes aren't always a issue.

user posted image

How things change within a week.
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 4 2022, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Feb 3 2022, 09:43 PM)
good idea to buy FB with the dip?
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This was out in Q3 2021 earnings quater.
user posted image

Since they were so insistent on focusing on Metaverse now they have got to prove they can do something with it.
Also funds haven't rebalanced their portion.
Still good for short term trades. IV is still quite high.

QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Feb 4 2022, 05:05 PM)
Especially since btc was 69k,

Thanks elon

laugh.gif
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BTC is old news. Lot of other things going on.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Feb 4 2022, 05:23 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 8 2022, 08:22 PM

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https://twitter.com/LizYoungStrat/status/1490729198226452484

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zacknistelrooy
post Feb 11 2022, 11:20 PM

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Market is broken

Book depth isn't there to absorb the increase in volume compared to few years ago.

user posted image
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 26 2022, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 26 2022, 02:03 PM)
US no balls to sanction Russia oil... because will tank own economy faster... lol

no principles... just self interest...
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That applies to almost all countries.

Just curious what China is doing?
This ends tomorrow if the put their foot down
They are one of the closest allies to Russia.


India has also not said or done much

Middle east countries that teamed up with Russia for OPEC. What happened to them

Then the Europeans which allowed it to go this far. Allowing the Nord Stream 2 to be build and then surprised/acts like surprised while sh.. hit the fan.

https://fashionunited.com/news/business/italy-s-luxury-sector-and-belgium-s-diamond-leaders-say-no-to-russian-sanctions/2022022546111

QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 26 2022, 02:27 PM)
Well that's democracy for you, they scare run away inflation and later loses mid term.

Whereas Russia dgaf, just invade while their index crashes.
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Not a big deal since most oligarchs keep their cash in other currencies. Just exchange it back to Rubles for a nice discount on their stock market.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Feb 26 2022, 03:49 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 26 2022, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 26 2022, 04:19 PM)
Ukraine wanna ban nord stream 2... join nato... believe us & nato will help fight Russia... refuses to nego with Russia... this is always dead end road

US stirring up shit as always... only they can invade others... lol

anyways the relief bounce should be short lived... market should continue to tank after...
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I see someone conveniently ignored some things.

It takes two hands to clap

Invasion doesn't only involve attacks on air and ground.


Pumping money and buying up assets in other countries and then dictating policy afterwards is an invasion also. Don't need to spell which country does that.

If people don't call out all parties involved then we will have the same problems till the end of time.



Bounce was caused by people pushing the downside to the max.

A few days ago around 50% of S&P 500 stocks were down 20% while NASDAQ was more than 70%. Downside is always harder because majority of people buy and not short sell.

Affirm was $160 a few months ago and now is $40.


QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 26 2022, 05:41 PM)
Even got balls to sanction also no use as Russia has already circumvent and protect themselves via alternative methods to run around sanctions  doh.gif

North Korea and Iran economic sanctions should tell you how on earth to circumvent the economic sanctions  doh.gif
Which is why rate hike is the real issue not Ukraine invasion  doh.gif
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For sure they can when there is a country that helps that.

Look where Iranian crude gets routed to and the last destination.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Feb 26 2022, 06:02 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 26 2022, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 26 2022, 06:26 PM)
yeah you can call China's silk road and excerting economic pressure a form of invasion... wink.gif  not that I forget or ignore... but its different issue to the current war...

anyways... volatility is usually not the moms and pops traders...  but the huge hedge funds with deep pockets manipulating...
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They are all interconnected. Would be naive to say otherwise.

US can't or chooses not to handle their domestic issues and people expect them to do something now.

Now is the chance for China to show if they are willing to do the right thing or sit on the fence....
Push their allies if they really care or is that too much to ask for a country that wants to be the true number one economy in the world?



QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 26 2022, 10:58 PM)
Berkshire is a class act  nod.gif  nod.gif
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100%

A little old data but still applies today.

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zacknistelrooy
post Feb 28 2022, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 27 2022, 12:54 PM)
Current high oil price is largely resulted of controlled production by opec+ countries. one easier solution to reduce oil price is to increase oil output by saudi, iraq, etc. however, after u.s withdrew from iraq and afghanistan, biden has little leverage over mbs. contemporary history show, elevated oil price over an extended period of time will push the global economy into economic recession.

many failed to realize their everyday life is better off with u.s intervention in the middle east.
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You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink

Unfortunately people don't realzie it. Have to give props to all the propaganda that has worked spectacularly well.

$100 oil is bad news for most countries especially with where inflation currently is and even if inflation goes down it doesn't mean prices are going to go down.

user posted image

QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 27 2022, 11:26 PM)
US is actually the big culprit in a lot of world problems... practically all the modern era coups and regime changes destabilize countries and regions are direct or ndirectly by them

You can say lesser of 2 evils... but we won't know because never went the other path...
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You have still not addressed anything about other countries but keep going back to US
US isn't the only country in the world.

The number 2 economy in the world refused to call it an invasion and abstained in a vote for the UN Security Council resolution.

Not sure how much more prove one needs because the other path has already been shown for everyone to see for years already



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Feb 28 2022, 12:26 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Feb 28 2022, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 28 2022, 09:17 AM)
dude... i already agreed with you in post 9095...

but current war is russia and ukraine...a consequence of US meddling... my discussing US is on-point... you trying to bring in China is a red herring and misdirection... hence no reason to discuss further here...

curios why won't you wanna discuss US but instead keep bringing in china?... china is what it is today also because of western meddling, for this history i suggest you read and understand the opium wars, and also kuomintang "looting" of china and escape to taiwan...

right now US wanna punish china...because "friend" with russia is a good reason... lol
anyways... full support for US unlimited printing and pumping into market  cool2.gif
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US shenanigans and idiotic foreign policy is well documented and it is like the only thing constantly being talked about as can be seen even with the small sample size in this thread.

So Europe didn't do anything to lead to this right?
China, India, and the Middle East countries especially the OPEC heavyweights all were goody tushu?

I probably should have asked this way earlier, but do you call it an invasion?


QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 28 2022, 09:28 AM)
he was an ok guy until 2007 according to this... now he is just jaded, pushed to a corner, fighting back...
If I bring in US propaganda would that apply here then?
As if he suddenly became this person all because of one country lol.
Also would like to see someone giving a lecture in an autocratic country about how they created a problem and seeing what happens.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 28 2022, 03:16 PM)
russian foreign reserve back in 2007 was much lower.
Pudding is unlikely to stop at ukraine. the invasion is the very reason ukraine should have joined nato years ago.
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Their reserves including gold was around 100 billion lower compared to now. Not a big game changer. Oil and the supply and demand dynamic is much bigger factor

QUOTE(dwRK @ Feb 28 2022, 03:28 PM)
expansion of nato is the reason for current war... lol...

anyways... 30 more mins to London open... cheers
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Sure…
The largest country by land mass is afraid of NATO and heavily controls the oil market currently but super scared that they did not want to take over Crimea a few years back.
Guess who started the oil war just when Covid started two years ago

QUOTE(JPM0RGAN @ Feb 28 2022, 03:31 PM)
Facebook at 15x PE. What a good buy. It is the lesser of 2 evils when compared to TikTok china company when it comes to regulators. And you have Coca-cola at 28x PE like it’s a growth stock even tho they have been pretty stagnant recently topkek
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Due to their issues, trading below market multiple may become more of a staple then an anomaly.
Always harder to regain your market multiple premium than losing it.
Also their trailing market multiple has been largely sideways previously.
Still a great trading option (IV is still quite decent) but for longer term remains to be seen.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Feb 28 2022, 05:36 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Mar 2 2022, 12:01 AM

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https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1498677729763463172

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zacknistelrooy
post Mar 8 2022, 08:42 PM

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Commodities markets are all over the place.

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zacknistelrooy
post Mar 8 2022, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 8 2022, 08:56 PM)
go check nickel price laugh.gif
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Yeah
Indonesian ETF is doing well. One of the few up YTD
Slightly benefiting from it being the largest producer of Nickel.

Market is still broken in my book. - NASDAQ 100
First 2 minutes it is up 0.9% and then proceeds to fall 0.6% all in the space of 2 minutes.

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Mar 8 2022, 11:02 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Mar 9 2022, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 9 2022, 01:56 PM)
markets look OK to me... it's moving relatively predictable on big timeframe

Opening is always tricky... you have futures and spot trying to sync... plus lots of panic buying/selling... a lot of news and economic reports hitting the streets...
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Book depth has been an issue and going back to levels closer to March 2020

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zacknistelrooy
post Mar 9 2022, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 9 2022, 06:02 PM)
a lot of volume has gone to the new micro e-mini wink.gif
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Not really

Volume for the micro March contract.

user posted image


zacknistelrooy
post Mar 10 2022, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 9 2022, 09:30 PM)
the previous 4 charts are book depths... this chart is volumes... they are different things no?

I can only say interests in ES has declined looking at book depths... and vol in MES has plateau... doesn't imply a broken market

I did say a lot of volumes are now in micro minis... implying the micro's order book needs to be filled up as well... assuming no new monies inflow to this futures market.. decreases in mini's should match increases in micro's... but there's also a flaw in this assumption... as ppl probably moved their money to others... like commodities, metals, etc...

just to add... imho market is ok because market structure is intact... after every swing high/low comes a retrace... support and resistance are there... put to call ratios are normal... etc...

the 5 to 10 minutes of London and Ney York open are always a wild ride...
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Brought it up because you said the interest has moved a bit over there which isn't really the case

user posted image

Can also check on the terminal the cost of trade for some the largest and most liquid stocks in US.
zacknistelrooy
post Mar 11 2022, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 10 2022, 06:26 PM)
last time 1 coffee shop... now got 2... surely some ppl from shop 1 go shop 2... wink.gif

rising rates remove liquidity too... so it fits with your data... anyways I have no interest in this... cheers
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That is an oversimplification of the issue.

That is why at the end I said to cross check with individual stocks especially the mega caps ones. Anyways good day and will leave it here.

---------------------------------------------------------------
In other news, please make sure one knows what their holdings are in respective funds.

PIMCO Income Fund Institutional Class is getting hit.

Pimco stands to lose billions if Russia defaults on its debt
https://www.ft.com/content/8d5bfe45-ebcb-4f...4f-e0435ca87c1d

QUOTE
At least five Pimco funds sold the CDS to investors, according to a Financial Times analysis of the asset manager’s holdings at the end of 2021. Pimco also holds more than $1.5bn of government bonds tied to the Russian Federation, according to aggregated holdings data from Bloomberg.

Pimco sold the CDS to investors wanting protection against a potential default and collects premiums on the insurance-like product. In doing so, it effectively wagered that Russia would pay its creditors. The positions mean it stands to lose twice over — first on its own bondholdings and then on the CDS payouts — should Russia default.

Pimco has already marked down the positions based on current market valuations, though they could still recover.

The magnitude of the sums are a reflection of Pimco’s size and its huge presence in the bond and CDS markets. The firm had more than $2.2tn in assets under management at year’s end. Pimco declined to comment.

The majority of the CDS sit in the marquee $140bn Income fund, run by chief investment officer Dan Ivascyn, alongside Alfred Murata and Joshua Anderson.

The fund disclosed that it had written $942mn of CDS protection on Russia by the end of 2021. The other funds to hold positions include Pimco’s Total Return bond fund, its Emerging Markets bond fund, Diversified Income and Low Duration income funds


This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Mar 11 2022, 12:10 AM

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