The latest hawkish fed is just enough to tip them into decision. Many will be on the way out to lock their gains starting from last week, and possibly higher flow this week as all dont want to be left behind.

There is always some correction around.
I read around this Fed inflation. All are opposite of what here people said. Don’t understand where there get the information.

I see the graph that inflation is slowly coming down from the high of feb. There is some detail reason around to read. And cathie wood have some interesting explanation.

The manufacturing has a projection for coming order when the sign of economic recovery is coming. There is a massive ordering that causes the Feb inflation. Material becomes 2x the price.

The usual JIT (Just In Time) stock inventory system practice by many manufacturing,  back before the pandemic is breakdown. Shipping chocking and chaos.

When the 2nd half is coming, thing gets clear that the inventory is over ordering. There is a massive inventory overhang.

Ordering will be slow down or stop to clear the stock. Material price will be coming down and things get cheap to clear the stock.

If this is temporary inflation, there might be a possible deflation?  Coming 2nd half will able to see.

5yrs, 10yrs, and 30yrs bonds didn't go up but 2yrs bonds (Fed interest up in 2023). Opposite of the Feb crash.

This week's market is the opposite reflect of the Feb market crash.

Even if the inflation to stays, it won't be that high as now.

Robust demand for steel scrap in the Japanese domestic market is supporting Japanese export prices, creating a wide bid-offer gap and making it very tough for Chinese buyers to clinch any deals, sources told Fastmarkets.
Export activity from Japan has been scarce this week, with domestic steelmakers in Japan and a handful of buyers in South Korea continuing to pay higher prices for the material, according to sources.
Offers for HRS101-grade steel scrap were heard at ¥63,000 ($569) per tonne fob Japan on Friday, sources said.
The offers were much higher than Chinese buyers’ ideas of workable prices. Key market participants estimated that acceptable prices for buyers in China would be $530-540 per tonne cfr northern China and $520-530 per tonne cfr eastern China.
That compares with prices of around $535 per tonne fob paid by a Korean buyer for HS this week, which with freight costs added, would come to around $570-580 per tonne cfr China.

The temporary inflation and chart down is not just what FED predict and see. It is also with BOE (bank of England ) and Germany. It is not US alone but globally. 
Another good news why US market continues going up this week. Especially the big company tech sector.

Demo and Rep come to an agreement for the Biden's 2.8t infrastructure deal. But the bill is cut down to 1.2trillion infrastructure package.

And do you know why the bill cut 1.6trillion and the big company is happy and the market still going up? 

It's because Biden ditches a corporate tax rate increase. With a 1.6trillion reduction in the bill, Biden doesn't need to increase the corporate tax rate to fun. Hence, the market is happy.

Also confirmed that for the 1st half of this yrs, US GDP has increased 6.4%. That is over 10yrs, US has never got such growth.

2nd half forecast GDP 8% growth. If this can be achieved, this will break the US 70yrs record.

So do you want to keep the money in the bank or all out? 

For the 1st half of 2021, S&P 500 up +14.41%. Most of the company strong earning growth and beat expectations.

For the 1st 5 month, DJI out performed the Nasdaq. But cyclical been change late this 2 month to Nasdaq.

The sector that out perform S&P 500 this 1st half is Energy, Financials and Industrial. It is not that there are grow, but catching up from the last yrs under perform. Where Nasdaq occupy the market.

But for long term usual US market, it is about technology. Sector like Technology, Discretionary and health care out perform S&P. (2011-2021)

2nd half yrs, US market continue to grow. But might be slow down lesser compare to 1st half.

What is discretionary? Surprise to see health care outperform S&P. I bet they never count those upcoming biotechs or pharma that failed during the decade. ie big enough to be counted like S&P.

Didi really DDD
first is Ant now Didi.. who still dare touch China IPO

Weeks before Didi Global Inc. DIDI -23.28% went public in the U.S., China’s cybersecurity watchdog suggested the Chinese ride-hailing giant delay its initial public offering and urged it to conduct a thorough self-examination of its network security, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

But for Didi, waiting would be problematic. In the absence of an outright order to halt the IPO, it went ahead.

The company, facing investor pressure to list after raising billions of dollars from prominent venture capitalists, wrapped up its pre-offering “roadshow” in a matter of days in June—much shorter than typical investor pitches made by Chinese firms. The listing on the New York Stock Exchange raised about $4.4 billion, making it the biggest stock sale for a Chinese company since Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA -2.25% ’s IPO in 2014.

Back in Beijing, officials, especially those at the Cyberspace Administration of China, remained wary of the ride-hailing company’s troves of data potentially falling into foreign hands as a result of greater public disclosure associated with a U.S. listing, the people said.

China’s securities regulator convened executives of major investment banks on Wednesday night, attempting to ease market fears about Beijing’s crackdown on the private education industry.

The hastily arranged call, which included attendees from several major international banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc and UBS Group AG, was led by China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Fang Xinghai, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be named discussing private information. Some bankers left with the message that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt companies in other industries, the people said.

It’s the latest sign that Chinese authorities have become uncomfortable with a selloff that sent the nation’s key stock indexes to the brink of a bear market on Wednesday morning. State-run media have published a series of articles suggesting the rout is overdone, while some analysts have speculated government-linked funds have begun intervening to prop up the market.

China’s official Xinhua News Agency said in an article late Wednesday that recent policies targeting internet platforms and after-school tutoring are aimed at protecting online data security and social welfare rather than outright curtailing those industries.

The securities regulator is supportive of companies that seek foreign listings, Xinhua said citing recent comments from the agency’s Chairman Yi Huiman. Companies with variable interest entity structures can also seek cross-border listings CNBC reported citing a person familiar, adding that Chinese companies will be allowed to IPO in the U.S.

“What this shows is that there isn’t an intention to unilaterally destroy business models and businesses which are fundamentally aligned to the party’s priorities for China’s development,” said Adam Montanaro, a London-based emerging-market fund manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The step gives reassurance that the tutoring industry decision was a unique case and “should slowly begin to restore confidence if they can convince the market that the regulatory developments are not an attack on profitable enterprises,” he added.

Exchange-traded funds needed just seven months to break the annual flows record they set last year. Their year-to-date haul stood at $512 billion after pulling in $54 billion of new money in July, eclipsing the $500 billion that investors poured into ETFs in 2020. When the calendar turned to August, ETFs held over $6.6 trillion of investors’ money.

It was an up-and-down month for stocks, but the Morningstar Global Markets Index--a broad gauge of global equities--finished July in the black. The index added 0.49% last month, pushing its year-to-date return up to 12.81%. Bonds posted a strong month, as interest rates continued to trend downwards. The Morningstar U.S. Core Bond Index advanced 1.02%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains and best monthly return since July 2020. Still, the index has slipped 0.52% this year to date.

Sound good. Heard a lot of options but never deep into it. Will search and learn more about this.

Thanks.

Then again, it could be a question of many many small gains, but 1 or 2 gigantic losses?

interesting! is there any other ETF which similar strategy? wondering what is the risk considering to normal ETF, lower or higher?
also wonder since this ETF distribute dividend from such strategy, is the dividend subjects to withholding tax?
is this an ETF that somehow resemble what ramjade you are practising?

Michael burry might we won't for this coming bet against Cathie. Looking at Fed .

Cathie ETF is risky as most of the investment is growth and overvalue future forecast earning stock. Growth stock will be stress longer.

Growth will be slow down. People start focusing on a more solid company with show real earning, profitable, low PE and oriental stock. Google, apple, amazon, Intel....  No more meme and speculative stock.

Hi,
Anyone try shorting stocks/ETFs on IBKR? Seems that shorts are building up against ARK Innovation ETFs. Michael Burry being just 1 of many.

German technology and engineering group Bosch, which is the world’s largest car-parts supplier, believes semiconductor supply chains in the automotive industry are no longer fit for purpose as the global chip shortage rages on.

Harald Kroeger, a member of the Bosch management board, told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach in an exclusive interview Monday that supply chains have buckled in the last year as demand for chips in everything from cars to PlayStation 5s and electric toothbrushes has surged worldwide.

Coinciding with the surge in demand, several key semiconductor manufacturing sites were forced to halt production, Kroeger said.

In February, a winter storm in Texas caused blackouts at NXP Semiconductors, which is a major provider of automotive and mobile phone chips. In March, there was a fire at a semiconductor plant in Japan operated by Renesas, one of the car industry’s biggest chip suppliers. In August, factories in Malaysia have been abandoned as national lockdowns were introduced to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

Volkswagen, BMW and Audi all cut their production as they struggled to get the chips they needed to build their cars. These companies and semiconductor suppliers should now be looking to figure out how the chip supply chain can be improved, Kroeger said.

“As a team, we need to sit together and ask, for the future operating system is there a better way to have longer lead times,” he said. “I think what we need is more stock on some parts [of the supply chain] because some of those semiconductors need six months to be produced. You cannot run on a system [where] every two weeks you get an order. That doesn’t work.”

Semiconductor supply chain issues have been quietly managed by the automotive in the past but now is a time for change, according to Kroeger.

Bosch has built a new 1 billion euro ($1.2 billion) semiconductor plant in Dresden — the capital of the German state of Saxony and one of Europe’s biggest semiconductor clusters — over the last two years and production started last month.

“The fact that we actually started to build this plant a couple of years ago shows that we expected the demand to go up dramatically,” said Kroeger.

US Fed just given another go ahead for another leg up...

BUY BUY BUY! 

Hi all, newbie here in US stock market. KLSE has websites like KLSE screener and Malaysiastockbiz to see upcoming bonus/dividend/financials information. Wondering if US market have websites as such for a compilation of all stocks info across the two markets (NYSE,NASDAQ)?

Thanks Sifu's

The investment-grade primary market will spring back to life next week following the U.S. Labor Day holiday, as borrowers look to issue debt with low coupons.

Syndicate desks expect $40 billion to $45 billion of fresh high-grade supply in the four days of trading, after just $3.75 billion priced this week with much of Wall Street on vacation.

Companies will continue the aggressive borrowing seen through most of 2021, helped by the low-rate environment and driven by the necessity of funding a growing pipeline of M&A activity. For the month, $130 billion to $140 billion of supply is expected, according to an informal survey of debt underwriters.

“With rates now going up we think issuers will see September as the last window to issue at these low coupons, which creates an incentive to continue to pull forward needs,” Hans Mikkelsen, Bank of America Corp.’s head of high-grade credit strategy, wrote in a report Thursday.

Estimates for U.S. high-yield bond issuance in September range from $35 billion to $60 billion, according to six Wall Street banks surveyed by Bloomberg.

If the high end of projections is hit, that would far exceed the $47 billion issued in September of 2020, and make for the busiest month of this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Expect a busy high-yield bond and leveraged loan calendar through the fall as acquisition and buyout financing, along with refinancings, make their way through the market, said John McAuley, co-head of debt capital markets for North America at Citigroup Inc.

“This is the first year in a while where we’ve had good markets, a ton of committed pipeline ready to come out, as well as both a functioning bank loan and bond market,” he said. “A lot of new deals are coming in at the same time.”

McAuley doesn’t see this as just a temporary surge, but as the start of a busier market. “It’s going to be higher for longer on deal volumes,” he said.

In U.S. leveraged loans, bankers are now readying a blitz of M&A deals that will steadily increase as the month proceeds, with the buyout financing for Clearlake Capital Group’s purchase of software services company Cornerstone OnDemand likely to be among them.

September leveraged loan volume is expected in the range between $40 billion to $50 billion, according to three Wall Street banks.

Heading into the week, at least one loan meeting is scheduled, on Thursday after the Rosh Hashanah holiday. Canadian construction component manufacturer Arclin is offering $775 million of first-lien and $155 million of second-lien loans to fund the acquisition by The Jordan Co.

While no loans have commitments due next week, Thrasio, a startup that rolls up popular brands sold on Amazon.com Inc.’s marketplace, is expected to finalize its allocation of $300 million of term loans.

Alibaba is one of them.


Only bright spot was this was disclosed when that can't be expected in other places..

Other than that it looks awful even if everything was legal.

Federal Reserve regional presidents Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren said Thursday they will sell individual stock holdings amid ethics concerns regarding trading in 2020.

The Fed officials will sell all their stocks by Sept. 30 and put the proceeds in passive investments, they said in statements released Thursday.

“While my personal saving and investment transactions have complied with the Federal Reserve’s ethics rules, I have decided to address even the appearance of any conflict of interest by taking the following steps,” Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, said.

The two officials also pledged to not trade stocks will serving as Fed presidents.

https://www.ft.com/content/0fe0d5d0-3d1f-49...b8-894ba0f0d580

How transitory can it be on the recent price inflations. Prices that goes up seldom come down.

Yes, but it depends on the types of goods and services. Services price been going up due to labor cost but
certain consumer goods been pretty flat or gone down due to technological improvement or mass production.
But, again certain items like vehicles and other high price items been moving up due to supply chain concerns.

One thing during this pandemic that hasn't gone down is real estate. It's still moving up.. 

I thought with the pandemic we will see more culling.. but we still got higher birth rates than death. 
Also, we all know world condom prices are going up because of the factory production slowdown in Malaysia due to MCO.