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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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dwRK
post Dec 31 2024, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Dec 31 2024, 11:29 AM)
The charts are all in Weekly chart.  :thumbsup:
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yes i know... just saying with weeklies... you have less pressure to be perfect... wink.gif

dwRK
post Dec 31 2024, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Dec 31 2024, 12:32 PM)
One thing I find it very interesting on SPX. My fibo extension levels match exactly with the fibo retracement level. January 2022 area 0.50 level (4840) look like very reasonable correction.
Rainbow is extension, white lines are retracement

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4840 is too low imho... there is no trigger or premise to go there... 20% drop is more than a correction liao... market crash territory...

this is my outlook for now...
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1. you have an election gap up not yet filled...

2. break of the wedge and retested... the deep retest hit .786 fib... looks like head n shoulder forming... pullback usually goes back down to near the start of the wedge...

so i'll be looking at break of the shoulder line... and drop to around 5500... you will find confluences of fib retracements and trend extensions there... as well as volume point of control... its also around 10% drop same as many corrections before it...

anyways... happy new year everyone... 2025 huat ah!!!...

dwRK
post Dec 31 2024, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Dec 31 2024, 08:29 PM)
Interesting. Look like we have different elliot wave count. Yeah there is a level at 5500. Infact it is the first level which is 0.236 retracement. Lets see the reaction once go there. But first need to see if it break the H&S neckline at 5842.
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yeah...

i made a mistake on my 1 and 2... here is the corrected chart... this will give the proper minor wave count for wave 3... smile.gif
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and here are the minor waves...
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looks like... except for the starting, the rest of your waves are the minor waves to my wave 3...

This post has been edited by dwRK: Jan 1 2025, 12:54 AM
dwRK
post Jan 11 2025, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(brokenbomb @ Jan 10 2025, 11:58 PM)
sigh. back to svix
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why the sigh?... in trading... one can make money when up down or no change... wink.gif

dwRK
post Jan 17 2025, 07:38 AM

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QUOTE(TOS2 @ Jan 16 2025, 01:42 PM)
Some people are offended by postings of non-US news in IBKR thread, so I post this here. Technically, the ADR is on NYSE, so...

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my issue.... scroll wheel cepat rosak oh... tongue.gif

dwRK
post Jan 27 2025, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jan 27 2025, 05:33 PM)
Deepseek has been debunked. Nothing magical there.

My money is waiting nvda tonight.
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the magic is in how deepseek came to be... wink.gif

performance/results wise... its better in some, worse in others... top 1 or 2 depending on what you want from it... its the top free model for now...

dwRK
post Jan 27 2025, 05:58 PM

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ppl in ai will still throw silly money at nvidia lah... time is money... speed is king...

the shock factor was all the shit throw at china not working... hahaha...

dwRK
post Feb 12 2025, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Feb 12 2025, 10:13 PM)
Lower interest rate will send the stock market to holland I think.  sweat.gif
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opposite... usd supply needs to go somewhere... wink.gif

dwRK
post Mar 11 2025, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Mar 11 2025, 01:10 PM)
Actually what is the reasoning trader use puts instead of inverse -2x like above for short selling?
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itm puts track prices 1 to 1... its also fixed cost...

2-3x products track %... is subjected to rebalancing and decay... bad idea to hold more than 1-2 days...

dwRK
post Mar 14 2025, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(mois @ Mar 14 2025, 07:45 AM)
Just sharing Dow Jones 1929 vs 2025. Hopefully not the same outcome. Monthly chart sweat.gif
DJ 5 elliot waves starting from first wave March 2009. Look like 5th wave ended by trump. So ABC might start.

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bro... dun simply chart and compare because you can lah... hahaha... world in 1929 very different...

as for elliot waves... i think we just completed wave 3 only from the pandemic bottom... now in wave 4...

anyways... happy friday everyone...

dwRK
post Apr 20 2025, 01:21 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 19 2025, 07:31 PM)
Somehow,... our fellow forummer Ramjade is highly successful in this game,... how did he do it ?
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bro Ramjade's strike price is very conservative... looks like he is selling his calls with around 90% probability of OTM/winning...

dwRK
post Apr 20 2025, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Apr 20 2025, 12:19 PM)
With the rate of returns, you just need a black swan 10% scenario event to cancel out all the hard earns premium you collected throughout the way.

So its not excactly a 100% money guaranteed method like what ak or guru professed.
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but his loss is capped doing covered calls... and afaik he is also doing secured puts to buy his stocks... and his stocks has gone up in value when called away... he has made money along the way and so not as bad as ppl think it is

picking a strike with high IV and 60% OTM already gave one a statistical edge... toss a coin 10 time it can be 100% heads... but 10000 times it will be 50%... selling options you need to be statistically relevant... just like the casino, some joker will walk away with the jackpot... but overall they still win...

anyways... i dont follow ak or anyone at all... dunno what they have professed...

dwRK
post Apr 20 2025, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Apr 20 2025, 08:40 AM)
I am not there yet but kinda of true the above statement and what dwRK said. From ITM, it swing to OTM hence expired worthless biggrin.gif

To do the bolded part, need to study more or pay an ex investment banker USD3k to learn from him. Yes it can be done. Making money regardless market up or down. Even if it swing like 20% up and down. No issue. But like I said, I am not there yet and I won't be there as I am not going to pay that banker and I am happy with what I got.
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some charting will help...

and some of your counters may not be optimal for underwriting... but i get it... its what you want to own, options is just extra...

dwRK
post Apr 20 2025, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 20 2025, 07:58 AM)
The way Ramjade describes his tactics,... he does not need any right mkt conditions. He has a list of a few tactics that is able to defeat ALL mkt conditions,... no need to even see current mkt conditions.  biggrin.gif
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not Ramjade's tactics... just a demo for you... hehehe...

gold at all time high now yes... dont chase high yes?... buy 100 gld @306, buy 1 put @306 to hedge, sell 1 call @320 to pay for the put... what do i get?...

a never lose money trade at expiry nod.gif

user posted image

but one must always check opportunity cost... wink.gif

dwRK
post Apr 21 2025, 09:31 AM

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bro Ramjade... not sure if you remember... hehehe

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and since Apr 11...

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there's a lesson for you somewhere... bro Tos2 too... whistling.gif

anyways, cheers...

dwRK
post Apr 21 2025, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(TOS2 @ Apr 21 2025, 01:07 PM)
Not sure what lesson you are referring to...

I no longer pick stocks in the US. VOO and QQQM for me from now on.

Only keep my stakes in Hermes, TSMC, OCBC and disappointedly, Novo Nordisk.

Topped at VOO and OCBC during the recent market turmoil. Price point was good. OCBC topped up at 14.97 SGD a piece (100 units, include 3 SGD commission -> 15 SGD a unit average price, already in the green now). VOO topped up at 470.60 also in the green.

Cash is 50-60% of my portfolio, all set if turmoil repeats. My OCBC's upcoming 9th May dividend is already worth 115 SGD. Not a lot to start with, but my passive income is starting to build up.

Net worth sits at 360k MYR. Targeting 400k in July-August. Saving 8k MYR a month now... got gf liao so spending goes up... but you get to enjoy better quality of living! laugh.gif
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i think i pick one of your fav stock at the time jnj for comparison... i didnt wanna plot it just now since it look quite depressing... lol... but i remember you bought it in one of the big dip... so ok lah... hahaha...

yeah bro Hansel said you got a gf liao... he is in sg this week... yall plan to meet up?

dwRK
post Apr 21 2025, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Apr 21 2025, 12:26 PM)
Bro go look at fundamentals and not stock price changes.
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we're all in for the money... wink.gif

FA is but only one aspect of evaluating buy sell or hold...

i pick walmart without any FA or TA... only market and situational awareness... tongue.gif

before all the AI play exploded... i posted about it too i think in the ibkr tered... anyways...

dwRK
post Apr 21 2025, 07:20 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Apr 21 2025, 05:13 PM)
Well I o for high magin business and low debt/good balance sheet. Long term I think tariff will hurt Walmart more than Google.
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as the saying goes... dun fall in love with a counter...

if im actively trading... id be sidelined by now... im actually 96% cash... lol...

maybe ill go sell some puts or buy some calls... biggrin.gif

dwRK
post Apr 23 2025, 06:13 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 23 2025, 02:43 AM)
What you all think about TSLA earnings tomorrow? 

I'm seeing a lot of bearish views across the traders' sphere.  tongue.gif
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depends how good/bad results... if its priced in... pump/dump beforehand...and general market sentiments...

plenty of times have seen good earnings but keeping dumping and bad earnings but keep rising

dwRK
post Apr 25 2025, 09:51 PM

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its making a higher low before a higher high...

zig zag up is normal...

nothing to see here... wink.gif


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