Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

675 Pages « < 165 166 167 168 169 > » Bottom

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

views
     
mrbigggyyy
post Nov 17 2019, 07:02 PM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
124 posts

Joined: Oct 2019


QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 17 2019, 03:13 AM)
Week #3.. collected the premium again for 3rd week but didn't get any stock assignments.
Going for week #4 next.

US market now is on sugar high...and it is creeping higher and higher.

Looking at SP500, last breakout level was 3000, now at 3120, approx 4% higher.

Supported by monetary ease by Fed of course... since July, 75bps cut in anticipation of slow down and tariff and possible recession, inverted yield curve. Now, those worries seem to be gone but a lot of anticipation that the trade deal will come out good by year end.
52 weeks high on most major indexes..

Yet, this is a much hated rally..

I agree with yok70 strategy. Don't put all in yet but leave enough cash for a pullback buy. It will come.
Leave the rest just continue to ride up with the wave. Can always re-balance portfolio a bit when it gets too high in certain sector.

I think there's a black swan to this 'coz the Hindenburg stock signal is here again.  brows.gif
*
nice premium collected. do u mind sharing which stocks premiums are you collecting?
danmooncake
post Nov 19 2019, 02:27 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
QUOTE(mrbigggyyy @ Nov 17 2019, 07:02 PM)
nice premium collected. do u mind sharing which stocks premiums are you collecting?
*
No problem.

UPRO - 3x of SPY (SP500)
TQQQ - 3x of QQQ (Nasdaq)

Be careful, these are 3x leverage vehicles. So, if the market moves in the other directions and drops fast,
it can exacerbate the downside moves really quick. Playing options with these are like juggling
dynamites.. so I don't hold close to the money or long enough but make sure they're a distance away (price wise) and
time is short enough (3-4 days).

I usually sell Monday or prior Friday.. if they're like 2-3% away, they're likely to expire worthless.
There were only 2-3 assignments for me in Aug and Oct but they were at the price that I was
willing to buy. Own it for a week, the following week, sell the higher price calls.. still can make money.
Bear in mind, I'm NOT recommending anyone the above two ETFs for long term holding. They're just trading vehicles.

The not-so-volatile types: I also trade the normal SPY, QQQ and DIA for long term holding accounts. Those are the ones I will keep much more longer (kinda like buy/hold). Hold the common stocks, sell the upside calls. Keep collecting the premiums. If get taken away, rebuy back or sell the downside strike price on PUT the following week.

Good luck!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 19 2019, 06:51 AM
mrbigggyyy
post Nov 19 2019, 12:02 PM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
124 posts

Joined: Oct 2019


QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 19 2019, 02:27 AM)
No problem.

UPRO - 3x of SPY (SP500)
TQQQ - 3x of QQQ (Nasdaq)

Be careful, these are 3x leverage vehicles. So, if the market moves in the other directions and drops fast,
it can exacerbate the downside moves really quick. Playing options with these are like juggling
dynamites.. so I don't hold close to the money or long enough but make sure they're a distance away (price wise) and
time is short enough (3-4 days).

I usually sell Monday or prior Friday.. if they're like 2-3% away, they're likely to expire worthless. 
There were only 2-3 assignments for me in Aug and Oct but they were at the price that I was
willing to buy. Own it for a week, the following week, sell the higher price calls.. still can make money.
Bear in mind, I'm NOT recommending anyone the above two ETFs for long term holding. They're just trading vehicles.

The not-so-volatile types: I also trade the normal SPY, QQQ and DIA for long term holding accounts. Those are the ones I will keep much more longer (kinda like buy/hold). Hold the common stocks, sell the upside calls. Keep collecting the premiums. If get taken away, rebuy back or sell the downside strike price on PUT the following week.

Good luck!
*
nice.. i'm looking more for the not-so-volatile types.. there's a requirement to hold minimum 100 shares right?
Ramjade
post Nov 19 2019, 12:23 PM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
22,199 posts

Joined: Feb 2011


QUOTE(mrbigggyyy @ Nov 19 2019, 12:02 PM)
nice.. i'm looking more for the not-so-volatile types.. there's a requirement to hold minimum 100 shares right?
*
No US market one share also can.
mrbigggyyy
post Nov 19 2019, 01:23 PM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
124 posts

Joined: Oct 2019


QUOTE(Ramjade @ Nov 19 2019, 12:23 PM)
No US market one share also can.
*
yeah but the option 1 lot is 100 shares right? unless u wanna go for naked option call
danmooncake
post Nov 20 2019, 10:07 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
QUOTE(mrbigggyyy @ Nov 19 2019, 01:23 PM)
yeah but the option 1 lot is 100 shares right? unless u wanna go for naked option call
*
Yes.. 1 call or 1 put is 100 shrs equivalent. If you not willing to own it, just make sure you discard them and don't exercise during expiration.

There used to be mini-options (10 shrs) for SPY or DIA but they discontinued that.

100 shrs could also mean a lot of money to put up as collateral especially if you trade high dollar stock like AMZN or GOOG.

Options and leverage ETF are no joke..so don't just buy and forget. Not for novice traders.
Krv23490
post Nov 20 2019, 12:09 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,150 posts

Joined: Mar 2016
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 20 2019, 10:07 AM)
Yes.. 1 call or 1 put is 100 shrs equivalent. If you not willing to own it, just make sure you discard them and don't exercise during expiration.

There used to be  mini-options (10 shrs) for SPY or DIA but they discontinued that.

100 shrs could also mean a lot of money to put up as collateral especially if you trade high dollar stock like AMZN or GOOG.

Options and leverage ETF are no joke..so don't just buy and forget. Not for novice traders.
*
Not really familiar with options, but roughly how much are the premiums you can collect ?
danmooncake
post Nov 21 2019, 12:01 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Nov 20 2019, 12:09 PM)
Not really familiar with options, but roughly how much are the premiums you can collect ?
*
It varies from week-to-week. I try to go for 1%-2% per week.
If prices stay the same or goes higher/lower but as long it is out-of-the money (means won't hit that strike price by expiration)
The premium will melt off (goes to zero). You keep that money.

For Options sellers: time is your friend.. the shorter the time, the better.
For Options buyers: time is your enemy but (correct) momentum is your friend.. the more assured momentum direction it is, you can really profit a lot. But if you are wrong, you can lose it all.

Sometimes don't even have to wait till expire because if the market is volatile, it can kick back and the premium can just reverse.
So, better close the trade and keep the money whenever possible and try not to be greedy.

I prefer to be on the seller side because that's what the market makers are doing and it has higher probability of
success and profit than just buying options.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 21 2019, 12:04 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 21 2019, 02:33 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
First sign of bears popping in. 3118 high.. they're decided to sell. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 22 2019, 12:14 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
Thursday November 21, 2019

SPY 310, UPRO 62
1 more day to go.
If SPY can stay above 308 and UPRO 60 by Friday closing, then can collect full premium again. biggrin.gif


One thing to note: Sometimes, if the ^VIX (aka fear index) is low, it is also worth to BUY options as "insurance" against
the long common stocks you already hold. This is when the PUT option price is cheap.
If the bears come attacking, your PUT option price will rise (as hedge) against the common stock you already own.
If the common stock price went below the strike price during expiration, you get to sell it at the strike price, therefore
it is safeguard against when market went against everybody else during the bear raid.

But if bears didn't come, the put option price will decay till zero on expiration.

Yes, it is like an insurance. If no accident till policy expire, then you can't file any claim.



danmooncake
post Nov 23 2019, 05:20 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
Amazing... week number 3. The bulls still going.
Collected another week of premium.

This market seems to have no fear for now. hmm.gif
ChAOoz
post Nov 23 2019, 10:14 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
3,272 posts

Joined: Dec 2007
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 23 2019, 05:20 AM)
Amazing... week number 3. The bulls still going.
Collected another week of premium.

This market seems to have no fear for now.  hmm.gif
*
The market survive tariff, rate inversion, and even an erratic president.

Seemed like nothing is to big to stop the show now.

Optimism is peaking in the US, and tariff like low rate is an everyday norm now.
icemanfx
post Nov 24 2019, 09:46 AM

20k VIP Club
*********
All Stars
20,792 posts

Joined: Jul 2012



QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 23 2019, 10:14 AM)
The market survive tariff, rate inversion, and even an erratic president.

Seemed like nothing is to big to stop the show now.

Optimism is peaking in the US, and tariff like low rate is an everyday norm now.
*
More like too much liquidity in the market and has not many places to park.
ohmwrecker P
post Nov 25 2019, 11:27 PM

New Member
*
Probation
2 posts

Joined: Nov 2019
Hi guys,

This is my first post here (also first post ever on lowyat =D), so please go easy on me =DD

Anyway, a bit about myself: I do positional trades on US stocks (especially those from the S&P 500 - easiest to research), those that have a secular trend as a tailwind like chipmakers (the trade war), cloud stocks, energy stocks, and perhaps healthcare stocks (in this case, a headwind in the form of the Warren Presidency and Medicare For All). My holding period ranges from as short as a day to as long as a few months.

My investment philosophy is really only one sentence: stock prices move based on consumer sentiment as well as market maker actions, and they are NOT mutually exclusive.

My approach to research --> top-down approach with a healthy focus on observing market maker moves.
ohmwrecker P
post Nov 26 2019, 12:04 AM

New Member
*
Probation
2 posts

Joined: Nov 2019
Right now, I'm keeping an eye out for these things that will have a material effect on US equities.

1. US-China trade war
Last week, FTC's move on Huawei seems to sour the dynamic, but thanks to Robert O'Brien (national security adviser) and a Chinese document released on Sunday calling for greater IP right protection (a central beef the US had against China), optimism seems to be swinging back in.

source: http://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestr...f8c4c17bd4.html

2. Iran
Recent tensions there will likely subside due to 2 reasons. According to analysts from the Eurasia Group, firstly, the government will continue to respond aggressively by killing and arresting protesters and shutting down efforts by protesters to coordinate efforts across the country.

Second, new cash subsidies — to be deposited in the bank accounts of some 60 million Iranians over the next week — will ease tensions. Very likely to be true.

3. USMCA
I'm waiting eagerly for further developments on this item. The Dems are dragging their feet on (purported) labor rights/benefits issues in Mexico especially. However, when the ratification comes, there will likely be a massive boost just prior to the announcement, barring interference from other macros.

4. Warren Presidency
Though she is unlikely to win even if Trump gets impeached (he will likely be exonerated at the Senate level and continue to be president), a Warren presidency will be quite negative for stocks in general, with those in the healthcare and industrials sector being hit the hardest. She is an advocate of breaking up Big Tech, but that is unlikely to happen as the pushback is too strong (at the moment).

5. Pentagon's JEDI (Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure) cloud contract:
AWS (Amazon Web Services) is contesting the legitimacy of MSFT's victory in being awarded the $10 billion JEDI contract, but I think chances are >50% that Nadella & co. are going to keep this. Going back on this reflects badly on the Pentagon, the DoD, and Trump himself.

Conclusion:
If that trade war pendulum is swinging back to the bulls, stocks like AMD (had a meteoric rise over Oct + Nov, remaining short term upside uncertain) and KLAC (shorter term bullish trade) are the ones to watch.
danmooncake
post Nov 27 2019, 01:17 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
QUOTE(ohmwrecker @ Nov 25 2019, 11:27 PM)
Hi guys,

This is my first post here (also first post ever on lowyat =D), so please go easy on me =DD

Anyway, a bit about myself: I do positional trades on US stocks (especially those from the S&P 500 - easiest to research), those that have a secular trend as a tailwind like chipmakers (the trade war), cloud stocks, energy stocks, and perhaps healthcare stocks (in this case, a headwind in the form of the Warren Presidency and Medicare For All). My holding period ranges from as short as a day to as long as a few months.

My investment philosophy is really only one sentence: stock prices move based on consumer sentiment as well as market maker actions, and they are NOT mutually exclusive.

My approach to research --> top-down approach with a healthy focus on observing market maker moves.
*
Welcome aboard..

Feel free to share your ideas. IMO, there's no right or wrong way as long everyone's can be a winner in this market. thumbsup.gif

It's week #4, shortern training week. General market continues to edge higher, scoring another record high yesterday
with Fed stating everything in place monetary wise.

IMO, bulls are near complacency here and stocks are at overbought level. It may continue to be at this level
for sometime until all bulls are in, then big money will try to wipe everyone chips off the table. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 27 2019, 01:23 AM
yok70
post Nov 27 2019, 01:24 AM

10k Club
********
All Stars
12,695 posts

Joined: Jun 2010
From: kuala lumpur


BABA-SW launched today in HK market with a 6%+ rally. Wondering what's the valuation gap between the HK stock and the US's BABA.

just realize the market cap of BABA listed in NYSE now becomes 63.844B. And the market for the HK listed BABA-SW is HKD 4012B (roughly USD 512B).
does it mean the Alibaba group's total market cap is the combination of these two stocks ? That is 63.84+512 = USD 575.8 Billion? That is a huge upward before it got listed in HKSE!

This post has been edited by yok70: Nov 27 2019, 01:29 AM
mrbigggyyy
post Nov 27 2019, 04:50 PM

Getting Started
**
Junior Member
124 posts

Joined: Oct 2019


jeezz... this bull doesn't rest at all omg
fuzzy
post Nov 27 2019, 05:40 PM

*pew pew pew*
*******
Senior Member
6,659 posts

Joined: Jan 2003

QUOTE(ohmwrecker @ Nov 26 2019, 12:04 AM)
Right now, I'm keeping an eye out for these things that will have a material effect on US equities.

1. US-China trade war
Last week, FTC's move on Huawei seems to sour the dynamic, but thanks to Robert O'Brien (national security adviser) and a Chinese document released on Sunday calling for greater IP right protection (a central beef the US had against China), optimism seems to be swinging back in.

source: http://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestr...f8c4c17bd4.html

2. Iran
Recent tensions there will likely subside due to 2 reasons. According to analysts from the Eurasia Group, firstly, the government will continue to respond aggressively by killing and arresting protesters and shutting down efforts by protesters to coordinate efforts across the country.

Second, new cash subsidies — to be deposited in the bank accounts of some 60 million Iranians over the next week — will ease tensions. Very likely to be true.

3. USMCA
I'm waiting eagerly for further developments on this item. The Dems are dragging their feet on (purported) labor rights/benefits issues in Mexico especially. However, when the ratification comes, there will likely be a massive boost just prior to the announcement, barring interference from other macros.

4. Warren Presidency
Though she is unlikely to win even if Trump gets impeached (he will likely be exonerated at the Senate level and continue to be president), a Warren presidency will be quite negative for stocks in general, with those in the healthcare and industrials sector being hit the hardest. She is an advocate of breaking up Big Tech, but that is unlikely to happen as the pushback is too strong (at the moment).


5. Pentagon's JEDI (Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure) cloud contract:
AWS (Amazon Web Services) is contesting the legitimacy of MSFT's victory in being awarded the $10 billion JEDI contract, but I think chances are >50% that Nadella & co. are going to keep this. Going back on this reflects badly on the Pentagon, the DoD, and Trump himself.

Conclusion:
If that trade war pendulum is swinging back to the bulls, stocks like AMD (had a meteoric rise over Oct + Nov, remaining short term upside uncertain) and KLAC (shorter term bullish trade) are the ones to watch.
*
She's not even the favourite to win the Dem's party elections. At the moment it's probably between Sanders and Biden, once the other falters away.
danmooncake
post Nov 28 2019, 12:56 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
*******
Senior Member
9,904 posts

Joined: Aug 2007
QUOTE(fuzzy @ Nov 27 2019, 05:40 PM)
She's not even the favourite to win the Dem's party elections. At the moment it's probably between Sanders and Biden, once the other falters away.
*
I like Andrew Yang.. it's a very long shot. Average Americans just don't understand him well enough but his
ideas are the best.

675 Pages « < 165 166 167 168 169 > » Top
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.0179sec    0.17    6 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 29th March 2024 - 01:06 AM