wanna short again but 10 min before opening wti dives...

still, will see if a chance will come later.




reminder: it's a tuesday - api/eia shockers tmrw.

haha... here we go...

just a few words will shake it all up!


Oil turns positive as Iran signals willingness for OPEC action to boost price

tug-of-war going on.

continued oversupply vs hope of opec freeze.

maybe get a hint of direction by closing...

down, up, down...


Oil futures declined in electronic trading Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.46 million-barrel climb in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended August 19, according to sources.

looks like iran's "we may cooperate" lost its charm.

back to 47...

if eia reports >5mil bbls crude buildup, gotta do the big short.

not good news for oil bulls.

the americans can produce more oil very easily now.

will need saudi, iran and iraq to say, "we WILL cut deep".


BREAKING: Oil extends losses as US crude inventories rise by 2.5M barrels: EIA

saudi: "we may discuss" = +12%.
iea: "glut over" = +5%
russia: "we will work with saudi" = +5%.
iran: "we may cooperate" = +3%.

china weak nos. = -2%
rig count incr = -1%
inventory buildup = -3%
fed: "may still raise rate in sep" = -2%

net = +17%, i.e from 40 to 46.70 in 16 sessions.

next... anything from mouth(s) of opec, fed, ecb, china, japan.

even libor (london) rates is now talked as a factor for rate hike!

so, anything goes...

frankly, i'm finding crude futures exhaustive.

think i will close as much as i can, do some bargain hunting on other counters, sit back a bit.



fri will be key - i expect yellen as usual, give little clue, say "will be data driven" for a hundredth time.

then analysts will interpret it anyway they like...

stocks and oil both appear directionless...

everything stops until yellen speaks tmrw?

i'm staying away from crude until tmrw.

today, bargain hunting for XLV and GOOG.

XLV/healthcare took a hit since yesterday due to Mylan Epipens alleged gouging - injections for allergies - 2 doses for $608.

hilary clinton tweeted:

here we go...


Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Reuters late on Thursday that "we don't believe any significant intervention in the market is necessary other than to allow the forces of supply and demand to do the work for us," adding that the "market is moving in the right direction" already.



tonight, we have yellen speech and rig count.

latest... yemeni missile fired at saudi.

looks like the missile can't much do.

fed's vice chair fisher speech more powerful, hawkish.

stocks and crude turn negative.

market likely to trade rangebound his week until fri, jobs report.

that will almost seal the fate of whether fed will hike rate or not in sep.

i standby for fri!

chartists are calling crude rangebound, wait and see if it will break out on either side of 46.50 and 48.43.

never mind opec record output vs opec freeze talk, but the mood is... global equities are poised to go higher.

there are more and more reports now calling it "bull", like these:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-abb-to-samsung
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/29/markets-acc...-rate-hike.html

suddenly all the doom and gloom gone?!

dow-s&p-nasdaq +10% in next 6-9 months?!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 30 2016, 05:09 PM

crude price... there is a new wild card... china.

Oil extends losses as US crude stocks rise by 2.3M barrels, more than expected



and so, it falls again...

stocks build, good adp report, crude sinks 3.5%.

come fri, if jobs report sucks, it will rebound 5%?!

wti... 43.45, still no support.


wanna go back to 40 so quickly?

Need Saudi man to say we will discuss, again.

Or iea to say glut is over.

Fat hopes!!

The August employment report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET with U.S. trade deficit data new at the same time. Factory orders will, be released at 10 a.m. ET and there will be a speech at 1 p.m. ET by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker.