USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?
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 Jul 8 2016, 02:04 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010 
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jobs report at 8.30pm.
futures after 8.30pm will give indication where market will go later. Friday's employment report is expected to show a rebound to 175,000 nonfarm payrolls, from May's stunningly weak 38,000, according to Thomson Reuters. The June report is expected to include a reversal of the negative impact of the Verizon strike, which bit into May's number and should add about 35,000 workers to the June report. |
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Jul 8 2016, 06:13 PM
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur 
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 8 2016, 11:36 AM) my read is a little different, more like dan's. yes, i agree that oil has no shortage, probably at least for the next 5-10 years.slacks in opec have been picked up by others. strikes, fires, rebels have also contributed to erratic price spikes but all that is over. and there is iran pumping away as #2; new fields in khazakhstan and gulf of mexico coming onstream. there is simply no shortage of oil on the planet at this time. brexit effects so far are knee-jerk. more safe haven bonds going negative yields says it all - there will be a significant slowdown in uk and the eu - less demand for oil. china's stockpile is filled to the brim, can't buy much more. growth in india and others is far from enough to pick the slack in china. india can't grow faster in energy consumption industries because of serious lack of water in the subcontinent. 45-46 is not the bottom. i see it diving below at least one more time, and will not cross 52 this year. so, i will not hold much oil/energy stocks/etf's for now. will just trade accordingly. the correlation crude-dow is still significant. tonight, unless dow slides again, there should be a chance for wti to touch 46 again. just don't wait too long to settle uwti!   it's just about the question of “where is the bottom", which is a million dollar question. ie. WB thinks 95-100 is Apple's bottom, but many thinks much lower. Anyways, WB made a bad bottom estimation on IBM before, who know.  |
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Jul 8 2016, 08:23 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 8 2016, 06:13 PM) yes, i agree that oil has no shortage, probably at least for the next 5-10 years. aiyah... wb is not a demi-god, he's only human. like us, who hasn't done time travel into the future. it's just about the question of “where is the bottom", which is a million dollar question. ie. WB thinks 95-100 is Apple's bottom, but many thinks much lower. Anyways, WB made a bad bottom estimation on IBM before, who know. where's the bottom? it's futile to try to speculate. i gave up looking for tops and bottoms for anything long time ago. just look for reasonable highs and lows. tonight.. i look for dow +100, wti 46, that's all. i have a good feeling that i will get a second wagyu steak later.  |
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Jul 8 2016, 08:42 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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U.S. stock index futures extended gains Friday after the June non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations with a headline figure of 287,000.
"This is really good news. It's not going to change monetary policy in the near term because we're still unraveling the effects of the (EU) referendum," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. |
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Jul 8 2016, 09:26 PM
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 8 2016, 08:42 PM) U.S. stock index futures extended gains Friday after the June non-farm payrolls report exceeded expectations with a headline figure of 287,000. recent US data all positive + without rate hike. "This is really good news. It's not going to change monetary policy in the near term because we're still unraveling the effects of the (EU) referendum," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. rally continues? This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 8 2016, 09:26 PM |
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Jul 8 2016, 09:47 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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goldilocks job report.
dow +14x. wti... not so good. waiting for rig count report, i suppose. |
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Jul 8 2016, 10:47 PM
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All Stars
10,123 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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Nice! General market (Dow+Sp500+Nasdaq) rally because of the huge job numbers... but Oil indeed stalling here at 45.xx
But, XLE (mostly Oil services and big producers instead of crude) so far still working and following on general market... phew! Lucky me! This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 8 2016, 10:48 PM |
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Jul 8 2016, 10:51 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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jobs report - strong $, crude price drop.
that's what they say now... |
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Jul 8 2016, 11:00 PM
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All Stars
10,123 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 8 2016, 10:51 PM) jobs report - strong $, crude price drop. I won't be surprised if those financial media will find a reason for it that's what they say now... I think at least Crude should stay here at the $45 support level with the good job numbers. Longer term, it should drive consumption higher but then again, the idle suppliers also can fire up those rigs anytime and the OPECs ready for round 2 fight if it happens again. This article is saying that O&G industry may be ready to hire again: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-gas-indu...-132744732.html |
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Jul 8 2016, 11:11 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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financials have a field day today.
tech also good. |
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Jul 9 2016, 12:57 AM
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All Stars
10,123 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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You know.. it seems the only thing holding up crude tonight above $45 now is the 'good' feeling about the job market data from US despite the disappointment from the lesser inventory drawn by mid week.
 I think it will make another run to 50 again by next week if here is additional drawn..then the oil bulls will think it is another demand from the better employed consumers. Might want to hang on to some oil related shares here..at this level. For you guys playing the leverage game.. I think UWTI can hold off 25.50 as long as Oil stays above $45.  This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 9 2016, 12:58 AM |
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Jul 9 2016, 01:05 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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shale is coming back.
wti gains today will be limited... 0.5%? BREAKING: US oil rigs rise by 10 to 351: Baker Hughes |
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Jul 9 2016, 01:20 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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uwti... i just got out at 26.50.. same as buying price. lost brokerage.
it's been tough in the last 24 hours. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 9 2016, 01:20 AM |
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Jul 9 2016, 01:26 AM
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All Stars
10,123 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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It can go higher next week... once the Oil bulls ignore all the BS noise again and claim Inventory level is not that bad.. they will buy buy buy.
Crude now is lagging but it will catch up with the general market later. Just hope it won't puke first... |
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Jul 9 2016, 01:31 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 9 2016, 01:26 AM) It can go higher next week... once the Oil bulls ignore all the BS noise again and claim Inventory level is not that bad.. they will buy buy buy. will go back in if it pukes and goes to 45. Crude now is lagging but it will catch up with the general market later. Just hope it won't puke first... |
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Jul 9 2016, 04:55 AM
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All Stars
12,698 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: kuala lumpur
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so today oil is a no-action action.
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Jul 9 2016, 10:18 AM
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Senior Member
1,602 posts Joined: Jun 2010 From: Malaysia 
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lose few dollars last night due to buying on market tops (few stocks). cant stop making the same mistakes.... need further conviction /nq or /es breaking ATH
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Jul 9 2016, 10:54 AM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 9 2016, 04:55 AM) so today oil is a no-action action. ya, anti-climax. i dumped and went to sleep. wait next week, see what happens... QUOTE(old_and_slow @ Jul 9 2016, 10:18 AM) lose few dollars last night due to buying on market tops (few stocks). cant stop making the same mistakes.... need further conviction /nq or /es breaking ATH this kind of "mistake" is in all of us, whatever approach/method applied.it's simply not possible to buy at low-low and sell high-high. i bought a few counters 2 days into brexit rout, now holding 4-5% gain. BUT... that was a huge risk i took when there was so much fear. brexit could have caused stocks to go down by another 3% or so. This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 9 2016, 11:05 AM |
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Jul 11 2016, 07:13 PM
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All Stars
24,453 posts Joined: Nov 2010
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dow/s&p may hit new record highs tonight.
but crude...looking bad, again...  QUOTE  During the recent financial crisis, crude production overhang was 138 million barrels. Now, the overhang is twice that, at 383 million barrels among the OECD, Cohen said. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/08/oils-reboun...e-barclays.html This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 11 2016, 07:19 PM |
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Jul 11 2016, 10:22 PM
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All Stars
10,123 posts Joined: Aug 2007
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Wow... yes indeed. All time high for Dow and SP500 yet Crude is struggling here at $45.
There was a quick dip to 44.55... it may not hold any longer if general market pulls back. Danger zone here. This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 11 2016, 10:23 PM |
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