Wow.. gotta to watch my support line too. Oil is sinking here.

Danger zone at low 45.

i'm with u - that's my price!

looking at the storm, if chance to get out at 2.30am, i will.

The trading (low) range is around 44.50 (buy area but watch this trap door) to high of 52..(must sell area).
Tread carefully here.. .watch that stop line. Good luck!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 8 2016, 01:25 AM

Guys, be careful playing here.. UWTI is quite volatile tonight.. moving seems to be faster than Oil going down.

Back in XLE half position here...mid 66 here better hold.

crazy....

the fall is too sharp.

haven't seen that in a while.

there should be a reasonable rebound later or tmrw.

Bulls trying hard to defend the $45 line...

25.60 in a little bit.....tonight's overall avg price 27....

very important line.....don't want to see 43.xx.....

not looking good, dow -100.

possible the slide will continue.

gotta watch tmrw very carefully.

and there is rig count tmrw too.

A bit of relief now... buyers coming back in at late session. I think the bulls gonna hold support here.

you long it too?
looks like bulls trying to hold 45 for today....tomorrow another story, dunno what story....

The jobs number will be the tell-tale sign... the API numbers were good tonight but not sure about the
govt DOL numbers.

All I need for it is to stay at this level, then can also make money for the weekend.

if 45 could stay solid, high chance a 55 on its way in followings weeks or months ahead?....

Not sure either... but some are saying that we'll see $40 before we see $55 first because of couple of bear cases already in place: i) the growing
inventory - China strategic stockpile is almost full now after buying so much crude during the cheapy price the last 2-3 months ii) Rigs count going back up iii) driving and travelling seasons in North America already peak and going into the second half.. just two more months only to Labor day and iv) OPEC still refuses to cut production despite so many meetings - they simply can't agree with each other and Iranians are ignoring the Arabs.

I am not sure what will drive prices up unless we can see demand up.. everything is softening now.
If UK goes into recession, there will be some other dominoes will follow.

I think likely, we' heading back down after 1-2 more rotations here between 45.xx and 50.xx range play.

i see 3 points:
1. some of the opec countries had already peak out their production, ie. saudi. In 2017/2018, they may produce less oil, not strategically but in reality.
2. uk/euro instability may further delays us rate hike, which trigger funds out flow from us. That case, usd will be weaker which is positive for commodities that trades with usd. However, the world's instability also may trigger usd to stay as safe heaven, which even enhance usd's appreciation.
3. india is the new china which leads demand in next 10 years. Its growth is so far so good.

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 8 2016, 08:52 AM

my read is a little different, more like dan's.

slacks in opec have been picked up by others. strikes, fires, rebels have also contributed to erratic price spikes but all that is over. and there is iran pumping away as #2; new fields in khazakhstan and gulf of mexico coming onstream. there is simply no shortage of oil on the planet at this time.

brexit effects so far are knee-jerk. more safe haven bonds going negative yields says it all - there will be a significant slowdown in uk and the eu - less demand for oil. china's stockpile is filled to the brim, can't buy much more.

growth in india and others is far from enough to pick the slack in china. india can't grow faster in energy consumption industries because of serious lack of water in the subcontinent.

45-46 is not the bottom. i see it diving below at least one more time, and will not cross 52 this year.

so, i will not hold much oil/energy stocks/etf's for now. will just trade accordingly. the correlation crude-dow is still significant.



tonight, unless dow slides again, there should be a chance for wti to touch 46 again. just don't wait too long to settle uwti!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 11:37 AM