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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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sp3d2
post Oct 15 2025, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(engineer @ Oct 15 2025, 05:00 PM)
Powell hints on the endgame of the QT policy. Also he believes that there will be 2 more rate cuts. Looks like market will be flooded with amber of liquidity and looking for assets to invest in. Stock market will likely to go higher in this case. Maybe we will see S&P to hit 7000 end of the year.
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Hopefully it will be followed up by a great crash in 2026.
ozak
post Oct 15 2025, 10:04 PM

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QUOTE(engineer @ Oct 15 2025, 05:00 PM)
Powell hints on the endgame of the QT policy. Also he believes that there will be 2 more rate cuts. Looks like market will be flooded with amber of liquidity and looking for assets to invest in. Stock market will likely to go higher in this case. Maybe we will see S&P to hit 7000 end of the year.
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Aka print money?
engineer
post Oct 16 2025, 07:42 AM

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A lot of optimism in the market now.

Last Friday was the first 3% drawdown in 5 months

what did stock market participants do?

From BofA Research:

Over the last 15 years, last week was...

- the 5th largest week for single-stock inflows
- the largest weekly inflow for stocks when the market was down 1% or more


people saw a 3% drawdown and what did they do?

bought. the. dip.
engineer
post Oct 16 2025, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Oct 15 2025, 10:04 PM)
Aka print money?
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Not sure if there will be a break or go QE right after. QE will only mean higher stock market, learning from the past history.

This post has been edited by engineer: Oct 16 2025, 07:57 AM
Wedchar2912
post Oct 16 2025, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(engineer @ Oct 16 2025, 07:56 AM)
Not sure if there will be a break or go QE right after. QE will only mean higher stock market, learning from the past history.
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I think it doesn't really matter.... the end story is still Powell can only hold the fort until May 2026, and thereafter will just be full liquidity pump as instructed/demanded by Trump.
Fair to trump... he wanted dollar to weaken... interest rate to be zero and inflation be damned.
poooky
post Oct 16 2025, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Oct 16 2025, 01:07 PM)
I think it doesn't really matter.... the end story is still Powell can only hold the fort until May 2026, and thereafter will just be full liquidity pump as instructed/demanded by Trump.
Fair to trump... he wanted dollar to weaken... interest rate to be zero and inflation be damned.
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Means time to all in before turn on the money printers?
Wedchar2912
post Oct 16 2025, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(poooky @ Oct 16 2025, 09:04 PM)
Means time to all in before turn on the money printers?
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Not entirely sure if it’s wise to go all in... but it’s probably sensible to keep at least some skin in the game. QE definitely will come...

Right now, I'm weighing whether to trim my position by half or pay expensive premium for some short-term downside protection.
Leaning towards trimming... feels like a more prudent way to lock in the good gains for the year without overthinking it.

Ramjade
post Oct 16 2025, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(poooky @ Oct 16 2025, 09:04 PM)
Means time to all in before turn on the money printers?
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Just see what's on sale.
jutamind
post Oct 17 2025, 10:55 AM

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With US stock market at all time high, is it time to take profit/sell all of your US ETFs/stocks? What is the appropriate approach?
sp3d2
post Oct 17 2025, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 17 2025, 10:55 AM)
With US stock market at all time high, is it time to take profit/sell all of your US ETFs/stocks? What is the appropriate approach?
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No one knows the future. Just keep DCA like usual.

If it drop, then you'll buy at discount price.

Focus on Long term.

If you want the money in 2 to 5 years, don't buy anything for now.
ozak
post Oct 17 2025, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 17 2025, 10:55 AM)
With US stock market at all time high, is it time to take profit/sell all of your US ETFs/stocks? What is the appropriate approach?
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What is the sake of all time high?

Or you want to use the money?
jutamind
post Oct 17 2025, 11:57 AM

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For sure will continue DCA but for existing holdings with profits, should consider taking some profits off the table and buy more should the price drop? There's no short term plan to use the money

QUOTE(sp3d2 @ Oct 17 2025, 10:59 AM)
No one knows the future. Just keep DCA like usual.

If it drop, then you'll buy at discount price.

Focus on Long term.

If you want the money in 2 to 5 years, don't buy anything for now.
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QUOTE(ozak @ Oct 17 2025, 11:06 AM)
What is the sake of all time high?

Or you want to use the money?
*
Ramjade
post Oct 17 2025, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 17 2025, 10:55 AM)
With US stock market at all time high, is it time to take profit/sell all of your US ETFs/stocks? What is the appropriate approach?
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Let your winners run. By not taking profit l manage to few X a few of my holdings.

If drop just buy more, have cash ready on standby in case it drops.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 17 2025, 12:32 PM
sp3d2
post Oct 17 2025, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 17 2025, 11:57 AM)
For sure will continue DCA but for existing holdings with profits, should consider taking some profits off the table and buy more should the price drop? There's no short term plan to use the money
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If stock, maybe you can sell.

For ETF, better don't since u said no long term plan.


Barricade
post Oct 17 2025, 04:22 PM

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Bloodbath tonight
SUSipohps3
post Oct 17 2025, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(Barricade @ Oct 17 2025, 04:22 PM)
Bloodbath tonight
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what's the news that caused this?
swiss228
post Oct 17 2025, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(ipohps3 @ Oct 17 2025, 04:24 PM)
what's the news that caused this?
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Regional bank losses. One thing leads to another, all have cascading effect on the s&p. Punters taking profits after having such a good run for the past 3 months.
Wedchar2912
post Oct 17 2025, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(swiss228 @ Oct 17 2025, 04:45 PM)
Regional bank losses. One thing leads to another, all have cascading effect on the s&p. Punters taking profits after having such a good run for the past 3 months.
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Fed rate cuts just can't come any earlier.... Maybe now can justify 50 bps immediate cut? To prop up the balancesheet?
ChAOoz
post Oct 17 2025, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(jutamind @ Oct 17 2025, 10:55 AM)
With US stock market at all time high, is it time to take profit/sell all of your US ETFs/stocks? What is the appropriate approach?
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Buy when valuations is cheap, sell when its overvalued. How to calculate value, that will be based on your own internal metrics and how good is your understanding of the business model and the industry to ascertain its true value.

Currently nothing i want is particularly hand over fist cheap, there are some reaching reasonable level while majority are still overvalued. There is also a bigger chunk that i don't know how to determined the value and just use anchoring biases to make buy/sell decision.

Overvalued doesn't mean it will crash, just not really my cup of tea to buy expensive hoping it goes even more ridiculously expensive.

With that said, don't fight the fed is a real thing. Fed is very powerful until the day central bankers and institution lost faith in it.
sp3d2
post Oct 17 2025, 06:10 PM

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Tonight going to be awesome with lots of discount.

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