I invest long term, once go in that's it leave it there till I need the money or old later.
Even paper loss also just leave it. Unless if the stock in question really need to sell due to the company being in deep shit.

So far my Amazon, Apple, Tesla stocks showing good results due to this. After 1 year+ can see they go up so much.
Then continue DCA once every few mths. Gave up on timing the market.. like yesterday news suddenly out of nowhere Fitch downgrades US' credit rating causing market to fall. Out of nowhere pops up.

Only news we can time somewhat is Fed's decision to raise interest rates (impact already over somewhere last year), or if company have many bad news and in decline (time to cut loss). Or if something really bad happens to US and time to sell our stocks.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Aug 3 2023, 11:19 AM

Fitch downgrade 🤦‍♀️ not out nowhere as they are already in downgrade Watchlist since a few months back and Fitch did it because of political reasons because of infighting in Congress so it is not expected because a lot of Biden bills been rejected and dragged into the courts

The only thing you can time is earnings report and not even Fed decision you can time because they can raise or cut at their discretion especially during emergency like Covid

I mean if long period of 0 interest rate like last time Covid, suddenly Fed say want to tighten interest rate, suddenly everything fall left right center.. so sure this is not a good time to buy any stocks (at least for the next 6 mths). This is the lesson I learnt.

0 interest rate time for few years = result in many overpriced stocks due to investors factoring in lower cost of bank debt.
once Fed announce interest rate hike for xx mths = market prices will calculate this in to reflect stock's actual price in the future. Stock prices will then drop step by step to its lowest actual.

if just started buying some stocks right before (1-2 mths prior) that announcement, good to sell them and wait till prices stabilize. Else risk seeing lots of red in your portfolio after several months down the road. Some could take a longer time to recover to previous prices.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Aug 3 2023, 04:28 PM

Then you have to look valuation, FCF and EPS with revenue and expenses

The key is when you buy buy quality then you don’t have to worry about macro factors and just concentrate on company earnings

Earning reports is double edge sword and you can only play if you have stomach the volatility and take oppurtunities just like yesterday when I bought Starbucks and Clorox and yet still make money even though my expectation for the earnings to be low but they will surprisingly good and it take a day for market to digest and stomach the results

yeah of course check all these also, EPS, valuation (PE Ratios, PEG etc) before buying.
now talking about timing mar.. so this is my way to time in case if such a thing occurs again.

anyhow buying any stocks during low interest rates at US is dangerous, especially when stocks reach its peak price and inflation starts to booming.. anytime Fed can ring a bell everything fall to reality prices once again. I experience this at my own porfolio - so ngam I started investing US stocks end of 2021, a month before that Fed celaka announcement. I didn't sell fast enough, and hold many of them till now. Some really still deep red until now. So just sharing my bad experience.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Aug 3 2023, 04:36 PM

As long as the whole portfolio is green, it is fine. Those still red and no future will up even bullish, write off.

yes overall US portfolio now is green.. thanks to bull run that started last month.

should have added more when market was at its lowest... but that time inexperienced so don't dare to buy more. Next time will know.

As long as you buy and hold don’t worry so much about red in fact just buy when it is low and hold for the long term and only trim to take some risks off for profit

In fact my Sofi and Tesla wouldn’t have boom so much if I started selling on bad news 🤦‍♀️ and didn’t buy more at the lowest 52 week range

My Sofi double dip for the year and bought and just sold off for tidy profit for this year close to 300% and even beat my Meta as I was buying on the pains

What's your take for PLTR valuation now ?

Well, there times when interest rate are so low..(for extended period of time) there are really no good places to park your money except for equities. Therefore, funds keep piling in and retail investors also get sucked in. There's always risks involved whether it is quantitative easing time or tightening times.

Now, we all know US Fed wants to tame inflation (for months they been saying this), so it is tightening times. Also, the yield curve been inverted for months (signs of pending recession) but market is still oblivious to high price of equities. Now, tech been riding on this wave (so called AI boom) and what's not, that's what been lifting everything up. Also, US consumption haven't subsided yet because the employment numbers are still very good.

I think now we can see that the smart money will likely take some money out of equities and park in safer place like fixed deposits/CDs/treasuries bonds.

Wait for next week earnings then only can tell but at current price it is hold but if you bought it at below 10 congrats 👏

ya I wondering this also.. how to recession if job data so strong? Fed also not going all out to raise interest rates high.. but rather a few bips each time.

will see how it goes, if really recession means good also, good time to buy more stocks while they drop. Then likely Fed will announce some easing to boost economy.

Then the biggest pandora box in the room is ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.. dunno what will happen in the future with this. Really hope war fast2 end stock market sure boom if this happens.

That sudden downgrade saved me some moolah when DCA

Hope for more weird ass situation haha

👀🍿🍷🤤

This post has been edited by AthrunIJ: Aug 4 2023, 01:45 PM

US Treasury plans to raise the quarterly bond issuance size.

https://finance.mingpao.com/fin/instantf/20...%9e%8d%e8%b3%87

Under the new plan, US Treasury intends to:

1. issue 67 billion USD worth of 3 month T-bill (up 2 billion from last auction)
2. issue 60 billion USD worth of 6 month T-bill (up 2 billion from last auction)
3. issue 40 billion USD worth of 1 year T-bill (up 2 billion from last auction)

As of end of July, Treasury has issued 799 billion USD worth of Treasury bonds, 2/3 are taken up by money market mutual funds.

TBAC (The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee) "is comfortable running T-bills in the range of their longer-term historical share of 22.4% for some time before returning to the recommended 15-20% range, in order to maintain a regular and predictable approach to increasing coupon issuance."

Source: Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee dated 2nd August 23

Unlikely the war will end soon 🤦‍♀️ they can’t even have talks ceasefire and the only way the war ends soon if Ukraine able to capture Putin or he dies in office

Unlikely this year will be recession because unemployment is still under 4% and will stay the range below 4.5% until the election is over

The only way is to have quick recession is that NBER has to announce it by Sept but unlikely as they will drag till Dec 2024

Seems like Buffett is gonna queue and buy 6 months Bill again on Monday

Wah suddenly market so green again after Amazon’s earnings.

Well, unfortunately, the other tech: AAPL earnings are disappointing.. the sales are indeed slowing.

Also, initially, the market liked the smaller job numbers for July but eventually turned negative towards the end.
So, the percentage of unemployment did tick lower by 0.1% in July (3.5% vs 3.6% prior) and the job growth is slowing down.

I think the market doesn't know what to do but we get more sellers towards the end. Likely because it's the weekend and traders want move more of their positions to cash.

So far, the trend still up and bears won this week but still got a lot of work to do to scare bulls away.
Next week is another story.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 5 2023, 07:38 AM

If it heading to correction, time to scope some stock.

2.4% down. Still far away from correction.

because there is a calculation for marketing timing and market cycle. in fact, now warming up a lot of war cycle.this date not from me, but is when I attended a legendary person in US annual talk. his system partially already moving in a AI for a while. is called Armstrong Economic.

Berkshire Hathaway results

Form 10-Q: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/2ndqtr23.pdf

News release: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/aug0523.pdf