It happens to everyone. Sometimes, could go either way, post earnings.
If want to book profits, always can take half first (if that's possible)...

TSLA! This bad boy is back! It just won't die..

Fed going to say.. no change in interest rate tomorrow for now but if they ever signal less than 3 cuts.. BOOM, we go down another level.

Maybe.. but Powell is in control of rates. Not Yellen.

You know, I do like the US Fed board decided to hold rates higher at longer approach here.
I don't mind if we continue on till end of the year.. then suddenly entire market realize later we will NOT
have any cuts at all. then KABOOM!

We will get discounts for everything because businesses will definitely slow down, hiring halts,
and unemployment creeps up..

Then when they finally look at the data a few months later.. guess what?
US is in a recession, then, they'll cut rates.

This is how big corp boost their stock prices. .not by growth and earnings anymore.
Just buy back with hoards of cash or announce tiny dividends like Google.

I think also of election year... if Biden wins again, he's going after corporation with hoards of cash for taxes the next 4 years.

Maybe it is better for them just to spend it down.

Dow 40K this week.. another milestone for the never-ending bulls.
Only 3.5 years..

Next target 50K.. maybe 2.5 years only or less judging by insane trajectory of money flows.

Oh man.. another one of those China based ADR.

or up 345,118.80% after they "fixed" the glitch...

Naah... too rich for me.

But, darn GME, pure manipulation by this Roaring Kitty (Deep Fxxx Value).
The options premiums are so juicy.. might dive in just to ride along.

There's a divergent between major indexes.

Nasdaq pulling north, Dow pulling south and SP500 in the between.
I think something gonna break soon.



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 13 2024, 09:59 PM

Very good! Always nice to have cash aside.

Also, Powell has already spoken..no rates cut this time and their anticipated 3 rates cuts are gone.
Maybe down to 1 only in Sept/Oct timeframe.. or maybe even none at all if core PCE remains high.

Yes, it is confusing.

IMO, under normal circumstances, market will go up because lower rate, it will boost borrowing,
cheaper more cash available to businesses and individuals, more capital, etc.
When US Fed cuts rate, their goal is to boost the economy and normally the economy already has suffered because of businesses slowdown or unemployment is high.

But, we're in very unusual circumstances here. The odd thing is US is NOT in recession, economy is not in trouble and the unemployment is low. The market seems to want the Fed to lower rate because they want cheap money.
But, with more cheap money... then inflation will peak up again.

Also, since the market is already at records high here, we could get a sell off instead because this is already an anticipated news of what the Fed is going to do. Sometimes, I feel the Fed shouldn't show its hands.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 15 2024, 12:31 PM

Finally, tech pulling back... or perhaps rotation into Dow or small caps. Dow 30 being lagging lately but yesterday squeezed up.

Small caps (Russell2K/IWM/VB/TNA) also been rallying for past 5 days.. almost blew off top here.

Also, it's crazy they're pricing in 100% Sept cut.. it's going to be major disappointment if Powell says no later.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 17 2024, 11:07 PM

Tech bears are strong overnight.. -3%

Playing DTE0, 3 puts, all filled, 2 expired, one got assignment.

Tomorrow, we need a small bounce so that I can sell the calls side.

You know, sometimes, I feel that the market drops first.. then the financial media went out to look for a reason (and any reasons will do) eventhough already happened and it didn't affect the market last time.

I think the market is simply over-bought and time for traders/investors to book some profits or remove chips off the table again for another round.

Yup, can be dangerous.. when already happened. Better to wait for opportunity to play that gap-to-fill.

Day 3... Nasdaq touching that 50ma support line now.

Crowdstrike fiasco really hitting Tech stocks big..

The trap door just opened and sink hole already present. Really need tip toe carefully here..
A lot of gaps below 100, those algos may just go wild and fill 'them.

Waah... if VOO drops 20%, this will wipe out entire 2024 gains.

Hopefully, not, otherwise it will be start of bear market if this happens.

Also, they're anticipating rate cut in 2 months time.